Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

A lot has changed since 1974, and the waters are now very different. 

I thought it perfectly fair of Obama to make know his views on this subject. As he noted, a number of participants in the debate had speculated about where the USA would be and how the UK's relationship with it might be affected by Brexit, and he felt it appropriate to offer the President's view which (even though he is leaving office) is likely to be more authoritative.

Like some others, I also found Boris' comments about Obama distasteful and disrespectful. As a senior politician he should know better.  Perhaps he's been listening too much to Trump. 

Clay Bingham posted:

Dayjay

Sorry about the rant. Nothing personal..........Boris just touched a nerve today and, honestly, leaving the EU would not serve Britain well. Now, no more interference from this American.

 

Cheers

 

Not at all, would be a poor debate if people didn't feel they could express their views.  It's more debate that I would welcome really

MDS posted:

Like some others, I also found Boris' comments about Obama distasteful and disrespectful. As a senior politician he should know better.  Perhaps he's been listening too much to Trump. 

100% +  ...........  the scarey end game might be Trump as the next US President meeting Boris in #10 !!!!     ........  just a thought

Bloody hell Mike, now that is scary

Yes I think Boris was characteristically clumsy with his speech.. But hardly unusual for him, but yes regrettable. However I was more  deeply offended Obama's comments and I actually had to double check what he did say as I couldn't believe it at first when I first read it.  At least one of my grandfathers would be turning in his grave with Obama's outrage, quite disgusting and really does show his lack of foreign political sense. Probably the biggest boost possible for the brexit camp... The time for a personal reflection is later.. He knows that now that this is politically charged .. all it's done is help polarise opinions and make even less like likely the chance of reasoned pro and cons discussions less likely.

I really was angry yesterday... And I have never ever felt angry about an American politician like that before.. Not even from the days  when I was in CND. For me Obama has gone from a hero to a zero...

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

And I have never ever felt angry about an American politician like that before.. 

Wow, not even about these guys?

Obama must have hit a nerve ...

I have tried to stay out of this thread, and will probably regret this post, but here it goes...

I watched yesterday's press conference, and thought that Obama communicated the US position with both honesty and respect.

First, he said multiple times that it is up to British voters to decide on EU membership. Second, because of our shared history and values, he said he believes that both UK and US interests would be better served if the UK retained a strong leadership role in the EU.

Given the immigrant crisis, and the rise of right-wing nationalist sentiment in Europe, I do wonder how EU leadership will evolve with limited or no moderating British influence.

On the subject of trade with the US, Obama was attempting to be realistic. How long have the US/EU trade talks been going on?  The trans-Pacific talks?  Are folks in the UK hearing the anti-trade rhetoric coming from both the far left and right of the US presidential race? To think that new trade deals with the UK would automatically follow a Brexit does not seem very realistic.

I will echo two things Obama said.  One of the most important aspects of an alliance is being able to express an opinion without fear of damaging the relationship. Second, there is no doubt that the US and UK will maintain allied, regardless of the outcome of the referendum. The biggest concern, in Obama's view, is to what extent British influence on world affairs will be diminished by leaving the EU. Personally, I hope we never have to test the hypothesis. But again, this is solely up to British voters to decide.

Spot on, Hook. I agree with your sentiments completely.

Mike

Only the Brexit mob are "offended" by Mr Obama's comments. He's every right to express his views (presumably we all belive in free speech?)  and it's up to them to come up with rather more coherant reasons why we should jump into the unknown than anything they've so far managed to concoct.

+1 Spot on Hook,     I really can't see USA agreeing to trading agreements with individual countries unless the value is exceptional.  Collectively counties within the EU have this.  Individual countries may get a deal of some sort but it is not to difficult to see most all these agreements tend to be one way.      I would add in his defence he is not that close to the workings of the EU & maybe does not see the detail & frustrations many of us have with all manner of issues.   Also as head of a long established federal republic of states,  similar in some respects to the growing federalisation of EU, it may (possibly) appear to him to be similar to a state voting on opting out of the federal republic of USA.   The big difference however is the USA is a fully democratic institution whereas EU lacks democratic legitimacy.   

And +1 to TonyM ...........  to come up with rather more coherant reasons why we should jump into the unknown  ..........  trust me I'm Boris don't cut it for me.  Despite the "treasury" paper on why we should stay & frankly (IMO) some damp finger data predictions, it did contain some sound logic & many balanced factual arguments,   & I really am very keen to read something similar from the Brexit side.  

Mike-B posted:

 I really am very keen to read something similar from the Brexit side.  

Don't hold your breath, Mike

jfritzen posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

And I have never ever felt angry about an American politician like that before.. 

Wow, not even about these guys?

Obama must have hit a nerve ...

He did, I was erring on the remain.. But now if this is the sort of politics the remain team use, I am seriously looking at the Brexit team now... Quite a game changer for me.. And chatting with many today they are of a similar position... But perhaps it was good this episode exposed this charade .. It has me thinking about democracy and accountability... I could have sleep walked into supporting the remain team.. They say politics is about decisive events...

Good post Hook. Well observed, well put.

Hook posted:

I have tried to stay out of this thread, and will probably regret this post, but here it goes...

I watched yesterday's press conference, and thought that Obama communicated the US position with both honesty and respect.

First, he said multiple times that it is up to British voters to decide on EU membership. Second, because of our shared history and values, he said he believes that both UK and US interests would be better served if the UK retained a strong leadership role in the EU.

Given the immigrant crisis, and the rise of right-wing nationalist sentiment in Europe, I do wonder how EU leadership will evolve with limited or no moderating British influence.

On the subject of trade with the US, Obama was attempting to be realistic. How long have the US/EU trade talks been going on?  The trans-Pacific talks?  Are folks in the UK hearing the anti-trade rhetoric coming from both the far left and right of the US presidential race? To think that new trade deals with the UK would automatically follow a Brexit does not seem very realistic.

I will echo two things Obama said.  One of the most important aspects of an alliance is being able to express an opinion without fear of damaging the relationship. Second, there is no doubt that the US and UK will maintain allied, regardless of the outcome of the referendum. The biggest concern, in Obama's view, is to what extent British influence on world affairs will be diminished by leaving the EU. Personally, I hope we never have to test the hypothesis. But again, this is solely up to British voters to decide.

This is an interesting one. I suspect that US electorate and political leaders would mostly be horrified if British Political leaders were to intervene in the Presidential Election with some choice words on Donald Trump, or whatever ...

In the interest of free speech, perhaps our leaders should get deeply involved in the up coming US elections!

I am not at all sure that there is all that much in the so called special relationship [between the USA and UK] by now. After all it is based on common interests quite as much as affection and US interests in world Affairs frequently are at odds with the interests of the UK.

There is an interesting point about the UK moderating the EU. Of course one can see just how much influence that the UK has on the EU [let alone wider World affairs these days] with the Mr Cameron’s completely failed attempt to get some sort of reform of the EU in preparations for the period of debate before the UK [EU membership] Referendum.

Europe is moving towards monetary, political and economic Union. [as well as expansion to include Turkey] something that if it were emphasised in the run up to the Referendum would most certainly strengthen the ‘Leave” vote. If the EU will not make any effort to reform with the wish to keep the UK within the organisation what chance is there if the UK votes to stay in an un-reformed EU? I would say none. We shall be punished for staying quite as much as we should quite possibly be punished for leaving. Indeed one must question whether those in Europe have anything but their own self interest at their heart and really care whether the UK leaves or stays, except that the UK is one of the large financial net funders of the organisation. Equally one can see that special relation with the US is only special when we do exactly what the USA wants us too. Or else -  as this week we have been informed - our interests will be at the back of the queue for consideration by the US administration.

If this whole debate has taught us anything, it may well be that some of our illusions about those we think of as allies need re-assessing. 

In other words we in the UK need to show a greater degree of self-confidence in doing what is actually best for us in the UK. Become more Bulldog and less Poodle. ...

Though Obama’s blatant intervention in the internal affairs of another country is quite within the spirit of free speech, the people of the UK have every right to find that it is more revealing than the US President may have intended, when he threatens to put the UK at the bottom of the US list of interests. In many ways, the USA, if it wants to retain its currently pre-emininet position in world Affairs, probably needs to shepherd its relationships with the UK and other close allies rather better than Obama has done while visiting the UK over the last few days.

I agree with Simon that this intervention from Obama is quite likely to have the opposite effect to that intended among a certain proportion of the electorate in the UK. Of course I am not going to guess what size of effect, but the result is now no more obvious than before. And still an open race to the result on the day.

ATB from George

I guess that's down to the way you interpret Obama's comments. Of couse we are perfectly free to comment on the current state of the US political situation, which us British have done at great length. But as Mr US President has clearly said it's entirely up to us how we choose to vote on the day. Why the fuss over his comments? Surely the Brexit crew must have sufficient confidence in their case that they're able to ride out the bumpy waters he's stirred up? Well apparently not, since they've failed to come up with anything remotely credible in place of the EU and their ranks appear to be largely composed of the xenophobic, and the crusty old deluded supporters of the long-vanished "Great British Empire".

Dear Tony,

I suspect that he has done the campaign to leave no harm at all! 

I doubt if that was his intent though! ...

Mind you future US policy towards the UK will be out of his hands in a short while anyway!

ATB from George

Don Atkinson posted:

Official start of campaigning today !

Jerremy has thrown his weight half-heartedly behind the Remain camp. Most frightening thought he mentioned was a Brexit Government headed up by Boris and Nigel......................

Put these two together with Trump and........................

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

jfritzen posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

And I have never ever felt angry about an American politician like that before.. 

Wow, not even about these guys?

Obama must have hit a nerve ...

He did, I was erring on the remain.. But now if this is the sort of politics the remain team use, I am seriously looking at the Brexit team now... Quite a game changer for me.. And chatting with many today they are of a similar position... But perhaps it was good this episode exposed this charade .. It has me thinking about democracy and accountability... I could have sleep walked into supporting the remain team.. They say politics is about decisive events...

Simon

It's clear we have very different views on Obama's intervention, and that's fine. I can also understand you're getting annoyed at what politicians say and do but no matter how annoyed you are at Obama I'd very respectively suggest that your decision on which way to vote should be made on the merits of the 'stay or leave' issue and not the behaviour of the politicians.  I sure you will.

Mike 

George -

A Google search will show you plenty of examples where your PM has already been openly critical of Trump's lunacy. But I have yet to hear of anyone from the US who considers this as intervention in our internal affairs.

Hook

Hook posted:

George -

A Google search will show you plenty of examples where your PM has already been openly critical of Trump's lunacy. But I have yet to hear of anyone from the US who considers this as intervention in our internal affairs.

Hook

I also suspect that most US voters are much less aware of what Cameron says about Trump (or any other candidate) as compared to the reverse.  And those that are wouldn't care much. 

I consider Obama was unwise to say that a Brexit UK would find itself at the back end of the Trade-Deal queue, in quite the way he did.

Non-the-less, it should be a wake-up call to all those who think that a Brexit UK could strike up trade-deals with half the world within a couple of months of a vote to leave the EU.

My guess is it will take c.10 years to extradite ourselves from the EU and in parallel we might take c.10 years to establish trade deals with other countries. In the case of the USA, this will be with two Presidential elections behind us and here at home, we will have had a couple of General Elections and (possibly) Scottish Independence behind us. In other words, "lots of change".

Who do you visualize leading and managing this change process ?

I suspect you're right about the timescales of managing the exit process, Don. And given that this would cover three parliaments the long-term management of the change process would fall to the civil service.

Don, who can see the future?

Will turkey join Europe?

Will the Euro currency collapse?

Will Trump become the next US President? 

All question we do not know the answer to today, but we might consider that the sun will continue to rise in the East each morning!

So who manages the changes whether we stay in the EU, or leave, is impossible to call. 

But those who think this is about individual leaders are mistaken. It is about a future far more significant than which leader any particular person is leading this, or changing that.

And for Hook, Mr Cameron was not in Washington commenting on Trump. He did not see the US President in the White House the same week. It will not have been reported in the same way. The situation is by no means parallel.

ATB from George