Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Can someone please help by giving us a big kick up our big fat arse ?

All this talk of immigration... to me for many it was a proxy for a feeling of not being in control. Interesting analysis this week about the relatively significant drop in Eastern Europeans remaining in the UK... sure a degree of leaving the EU uncertainty was cited, but interestingly not by any fellow  eastern Europeans interviewed on the programme I heard.. it was more that many have saved up enough money from working in the UK to move back, or have simply missed home (they are humans after all not machines...). Further the economies of many of these countries have improved, I guess a reason why they joined the EU in the first place, and so the feeling was there are  better and more attractive opportunities  at home or elsewhere rather than in the UK.

What concerns me, whether it’s Brexit or Remainer, as a nation we still seem to have a colonial exploitative attitude to much of the world.. ie we need it’s  cheap labour to subsidise our standard of living... well the rest of the world is catching up...we in the UK need to invest in training, automation etc.(is this one of the reasons why UK productivity is alarmingly low, and therefore wages are often low?) Is it surprising many people  educated and growing up in Britain have higher aspirations than labouring for  very little... we need to wake up to the fact that much of the world are having similar higher aspirations as well.. and we can’t continue to rely on and exploit them forever. They have their own countries and communities to develop and thrive in rather than prop us up offering cheap labour for ever..

Simon,

As a Remainer, I quite like the idea of freedom of movement throughout Europe. It gives 300 million people lots of aspirational opportunities. In fact, I quite like the idea of global freedom of movement for the same reason, but appreciate we have some way to go before that could be considered, never mind implemented.

I haven’t perceived any theme amongst my Remain associates that they somehow feel Remain guarantees access to cheap labour, whilst Brexit means an end to cheap labour. In fact. immigration isn’t an  issue for them.

Don, although immigration/emigration crosses both Remainer and Brexit debates... both arguments seems to advocate the opposing argument will harm access to cheap labour or cheaper professionals ... whether it be non EU labour in one camp or EU labour in another.

in an ideal world we want to have a like for like flow of people .. but alas it just doesn’t seem to be like this in the UK... we rely on other country’s cheaper labour and often cheaper professionalisms to prop us up whether it be working in  factories, picking fruit, supporting our National Health Service, developing some of our smart technologies, or cleaning our homes... and it feels predominately (though clearly not entirely) one way .. which feels unsustainable.... if we had equal numbers of people coming and going within these professions and roles then to me then that is entirely different and sustainable.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

All this talk of immigration... to me for many it was a proxy for a feeling of not being in control.

At heart, I felt it was about identity and its erosion. Seeing SO many voices being listened to - in implied preference to one's own.

But that is so general as to hardly be the seed of a solution.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Don, although immigration/emigration crosses both Remainer and Brexit debates... both arguments seems to advocate the opposing argument will harm access to cheap labour or cheaper professionals ... whether it be non EU labour in one camp or EU labour in another.

in an ideal world we want to have a like for like flow of people .. but alas it just doesn’t seem to be like this in the UK... we rely on other country’s cheaper labour and often cheaper professionalisms to prop us up whether it be working in  factories, picking fruit, supporting our National Health Service, developing some of our smart technologies, or cleaning our homes... and it feels predominately (though clearly not entirely) one way .. which feels unsustainable.... if we had equal numbers of people coming and going within these professions and roles then to me then that is entirely different and sustainable.

I appreciate that I might seem to be a little bit biased. I'm not, but it might seem like that.

Why ?

     Because 1/3 of my children emigrated 20 years ago.

     I worked overseas for about half my working life !

So from my perspective, poeple DO move both ways.

More importantly,

     we already had absolute control over all non-EU movement. Nothing to do with the EU and

     you have already clearly set out above, very clearly, why future EU movement towards the UK was likely to reduce significantly, and possibly reverse.

I can envisiage that in, say, 25 years time (ie a generation) we (the UK) will be applying to join the EU (on whatever terms we can get) so that we are able to be the migrant labour force seeking a better life in Bulgaria or Romania (should we call that Remonia ?)

Probably a thread that outsiders should lieave out of, however it has brought so many interesting things with it. The first rigged election cclose to home if home is Denmark. The best satire ever, and it was good before brexit. The pound is back where it  should be again, 20 to 25 percent down from before brexit. Of course nothing comes free and since we trade much with UK, we as a nation will have to pay for my the fun. On the other hand maybe we can  even  compensated with a special sperm agreement. Unfortunately the sperm  opportunity has been missed  here, but we have an election coming up in the next year and maybe this can change everything!

Claus

There  have been a couple of examples in the media over the last few days where supporters of leaving the EU (that awful term 'Brexiteers') have been arguing the case for leaving, against on the other side of the microphone trained professional negotiators. One had worked in European treaty negotiations, and one from the WTO who was a key part of the handover talks when Hong Kong was returned to China.

In both cases, the Leave EU supporter in the interview seems to rely completely on supposition, hope and and a totally unfounded expectation that the rest of the world is desperately eager to beat a path to our door to do deals with us. And countering this in these interviews, the professional negotiators have knocked back every suggestion of that happening as either wildly optimistic, unachievable in any kind of viable timeframe, and largely of being just completely unworkable. In short the message coming across loud and clear is that whatever the exit fans might wish for and might tell us will happen, the view from those who've been there and got the t-shirt is that it's complete pie in the key expecting any kind of deals of the sort that we'll need in anything like the timescales available, assuming they're at all possible in the first place.

And for what? Some abstract notion of 'regaining control'? I don't buy it that it's all about immigration; a lot of exit fans are full of this regaining control nonsense as if suddenly all laws will be made by a party that they fully support and which absolutely aligns with that voter's personal views. Tosh. I had 11 years of Blair & Brown to live through; some of you will have struggled through a similar period of Thatcherism presumably. We the electorate don't have control, we have a small say, a say that is as insignificant and significant as the say we have in European law. But we have a say; we elect a representative who toes the party line in the respective parliament, EU or Westminster. 

And the opposite of this abstract idea of regaining control, and what anybody with any sense should by now be opposing, is the almost certain lemming-like departure of the UK from the EU to stand alone as a tiny not very significant trading block, one that will regardless of being in or our have to comply which whatever regulations the EU and many other trading blocs may wish to apply should we wish to trade with them.  What a complete farce, that we have willingly put ourselves in a catastrophically worse position and will do untold damage to our economic well-being, to 'regain control'.

If it wasn't so serious it'd be laughable. But we're doing it in the face of all common sense, reason and logic. But we'll 'regain control'. Jeez. Bring on the second vote, the one that has just two questions: a) Are you really sure about this idea of leaving?; and 2) Seriously? Have you even considered what you're throwing away to 'regain control'?

Help. Please. Someone help get us out of this epicly stupid march towards economic self-destruction.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

There are some quite effective  anglers on this thread 

Yes, the type towing bait behind a moving vessel.

I have not followed this debate, only clicked in as I thought the spending other people’s money was about hifi...... BUT

I’m Irish, a small few in my name committed atrocities in Ireland and  England. Whilst some tried to tar all Irish with the same brush the majority understood that the Irish chap working in the steelworks alongside him was really no different to them and not a murderer. 

Tarring whole nationalities or religions with the same brush is a way of demonising and dehumanising people and it’s sad to see a once enlightened nation going down this road. 

.sjb

Sloop John B posted:

I have not followed this debate, only clicked in as I thought the spending other people’s money was about hifi...... BUT

I’m Irish, a small few in my name committed atrocities in Ireland and  England. Whilst some tried to tar all Irish with the same brush the majority understood that the Irish chap working in the steelworks alongside him was really no different to them and not a murderer. 

Tarring whole nationalities or religions with the same brush is a way of demonising and dehumanising people and it’s sad to see a once enlightened nation going down this road. 

.sjb

Yes not very edifying is it.

On the plus side of the three people I know who voted to leave only one put immigration as their reason. The other two thought the NHS would receive more money and, finally, we have 'wanted to get rid of Osborne and Cameron'. One of them is a GP and all are 60 or over.

Politicians, sperm, hand-wringing....there won't be a shortage for long.

I see Lidington is now telling the rest of the EU to accept May's Brexit plan or risk no deal.  I suppose a bit of posturing is to be expected as the negotiations re-commence.  That said, I wonder who he thinks would be worse off in a no deal scenario?  It seems to me that the rest of the EU will not only be better prepared to cope with a no deal but will be in a far better position to mitigate the damage.  It rather reminds me of that scene in Blazing Saddles where the [black] sheriff holds himself hostage to keep the mob at bay. 

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

I should have added, if there were only the two choices you have described, Don, I would vote for the PM's proposed deal on the basis that leaving without a deal will in my view be catastrophic for the UK.

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

This is simply the equivalent of asking 'are you an extremist, sever-ties-at-any-cost Brexiteer or not?'.  So there'll be some support for jumping off the cliff without a parachute, but it won't get anywhere near winning.  Just as there's the ERG in parliament, and then there's people who aren't lunatic vampires.

The 'people's vote' only makes sense if it includes the option of rejecting the deal and staying in.

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Same here. 

But on the basis of the two options given, take tge deal - it can’t be worse than no deal. If no deal, start sticking your food cupboards now, and if you don’t have one buy a bike for cycling to work when the fuel rationing hits. And spend every penny you can lay your hands on to buty foreign investments now - the pound may already have dropped a shocking amount, but with no deal it will plummet like never before, then you can sell and at least have a bit more to live on...

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Yes, I believe that is the case, and I would certainly hope it happens.

However, I have deliberately suggested the Gov, in an attempt to be able to say "we gave the People a choice" might come up with the above options. And if they don't give us, the people, a vote, this might be what out MPs are asked to vote upon !

I don't like it. Clearly I don't like Brexit. I'm just trying to sound out possible scenarios !

Politicians are pretty good at blaming "others" and who better to blame than The Electorate !

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

Dave***t posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

This is simply the equivalent of asking 'are you an extremist, sever-ties-at-any-cost Brexiteer or not?'.  So there'll be some support for jumping off the cliff without a parachute, but it won't get anywhere near winning.  Just as there's the ERG in parliament, and then there's people who aren't lunatic vampires.

The 'people's vote' only makes sense if it includes the option of rejecting the deal and staying in.

Yes I know. And like IB below, I have suggested a few voting options that include the most sensible IMHO ie "we Remain"

But if you were invited to vote on the basis I outlined above, what would you do ?

Innocent Bystander posted:

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Same here. 

But on the basis of the two options given, take tge deal - it can’t be worse than no deal. If no deal, start sticking your food cupboards now, and if you don’t have one buy a bike for cycling to work when the fuel rationing hits. And spend every penny you can lay your hands on to buty foreign investments now - the pound may already have dropped a shocking amount, but with no deal it will plummet like never before, then you can sell and at least have a bit more to live on...

Thanks IB.

And your advice for coping with a possible "No Deal" is good, just buy that foreign investment NOW. The day we announce a No Deal Brexit will be far too late !

thebigfredc posted:

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

Ray, I hope you are right.

But a good education isn't always synonymous with foresight or insight. And good news coverage isn't always complete and easy to find.

thebigfredc posted:

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

and if he is correct (which I don’t believe) then the country is doomed to mediocrity within the EU or without.

s.