Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Sloop John B posted:

I have not followed this debate, only clicked in as I thought the spending other people’s money was about hifi...... BUT

I’m Irish, a small few in my name committed atrocities in Ireland and  England. Whilst some tried to tar all Irish with the same brush the majority understood that the Irish chap working in the steelworks alongside him was really no different to them and not a murderer. 

Tarring whole nationalities or religions with the same brush is a way of demonising and dehumanising people and it’s sad to see a once enlightened nation going down this road. 

.sjb

Yes not very edifying is it.

On the plus side of the three people I know who voted to leave only one put immigration as their reason. The other two thought the NHS would receive more money and, finally, we have 'wanted to get rid of Osborne and Cameron'. One of them is a GP and all are 60 or over.

Politicians, sperm, hand-wringing....there won't be a shortage for long.

I see Lidington is now telling the rest of the EU to accept May's Brexit plan or risk no deal.  I suppose a bit of posturing is to be expected as the negotiations re-commence.  That said, I wonder who he thinks would be worse off in a no deal scenario?  It seems to me that the rest of the EU will not only be better prepared to cope with a no deal but will be in a far better position to mitigate the damage.  It rather reminds me of that scene in Blazing Saddles where the [black] sheriff holds himself hostage to keep the mob at bay. 

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

I should have added, if there were only the two choices you have described, Don, I would vote for the PM's proposed deal on the basis that leaving without a deal will in my view be catastrophic for the UK.

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

This is simply the equivalent of asking 'are you an extremist, sever-ties-at-any-cost Brexiteer or not?'.  So there'll be some support for jumping off the cliff without a parachute, but it won't get anywhere near winning.  Just as there's the ERG in parliament, and then there's people who aren't lunatic vampires.

The 'people's vote' only makes sense if it includes the option of rejecting the deal and staying in.

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Same here. 

But on the basis of the two options given, take tge deal - it can’t be worse than no deal. If no deal, start sticking your food cupboards now, and if you don’t have one buy a bike for cycling to work when the fuel rationing hits. And spend every penny you can lay your hands on to buty foreign investments now - the pound may already have dropped a shocking amount, but with no deal it will plummet like never before, then you can sell and at least have a bit more to live on...

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Yes, I believe that is the case, and I would certainly hope it happens.

However, I have deliberately suggested the Gov, in an attempt to be able to say "we gave the People a choice" might come up with the above options. And if they don't give us, the people, a vote, this might be what out MPs are asked to vote upon !

I don't like it. Clearly I don't like Brexit. I'm just trying to sound out possible scenarios !

Politicians are pretty good at blaming "others" and who better to blame than The Electorate !

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

Dave***t posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

This is simply the equivalent of asking 'are you an extremist, sever-ties-at-any-cost Brexiteer or not?'.  So there'll be some support for jumping off the cliff without a parachute, but it won't get anywhere near winning.  Just as there's the ERG in parliament, and then there's people who aren't lunatic vampires.

The 'people's vote' only makes sense if it includes the option of rejecting the deal and staying in.

Yes I know. And like IB below, I have suggested a few voting options that include the most sensible IMHO ie "we Remain"

But if you were invited to vote on the basis I outlined above, what would you do ?

Innocent Bystander posted:

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Same here. 

But on the basis of the two options given, take tge deal - it can’t be worse than no deal. If no deal, start sticking your food cupboards now, and if you don’t have one buy a bike for cycling to work when the fuel rationing hits. And spend every penny you can lay your hands on to buty foreign investments now - the pound may already have dropped a shocking amount, but with no deal it will plummet like never before, then you can sell and at least have a bit more to live on...

Thanks IB.

And your advice for coping with a possible "No Deal" is good, just buy that foreign investment NOW. The day we announce a No Deal Brexit will be far too late !

thebigfredc posted:

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

Ray, I hope you are right.

But a good education isn't always synonymous with foresight or insight. And good news coverage isn't always complete and easy to find.

thebigfredc posted:

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

and if he is correct (which I don’t believe) then the country is doomed to mediocrity within the EU or without.

s.

Don Atkinson posted:

But if you were invited to vote on the basis I outlined above, what would you do ?

To pointedly paraphrase one of the most abject 'rallying cries' in history, it seems entirely likely that any deal is better than no deal.

Dave***t posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

But if you were invited to vote on the basis I outlined above, what would you do ?

To pointedly paraphrase one of the most abject 'rallying cries' in history, it seems entirely likely that any deal is better than no deal.

I feel your anguish !

thebigfredc posted:

 Don,

You seem to have a very low opinion of the great British public:

'...most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.'

Granted that not everyone is blessed with the insight and intelligence of your average Naim Forum member such as you and me but surely the UK population has never been so well educated and has unprecedented access to news coverage.

Ray

But most of the electorate didn't seem to understand what Brexit involved - more money for the NHS, perhaps?

Don Atkinson posted:

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Yes, I believe that is the case, and I would certainly hope it happens.

However, I have deliberately suggested the Gov, in an attempt to be able to say "we gave the People a choice" might come up with the above options. And if they don't give us, the people, a vote, this might be what out MPs are asked to vote upon !

I don't like it. Clearly I don't like Brexit. I'm just trying to sound out possible scenarios !

Politicians are pretty good at blaming "others" and who better to blame than The Electorate !

Thanks, Don. Yes, I can see why you've anticipated what questions May & co might wish to put to the people, if they felt a second referendum were unavoidable.  However, they would need to the House of Commons to vote in support of a second referendum and I don't think HMG would have the parliamentary votes to be able to force through a second referendum with the choice between accepting May's 'deal' or no deal i.e. 'we're still leaving so you only have a choice between two means of doing so'.  Indeed, if May's deal, as amended by negotiations with the EU, couldn't command a majority in the HoC, I suspect there are enough MPs to support a motion to instruct the government to go back to the negotiating table and to keep the UK in the EU in the meantime (in other words, seeking an extension to the Art 50 timetable, which the rest of the EU is very likely to agree to).

Mike

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

I thought the Peoples' Vote was also to include an option of rejecting the deal and staying, Don? 

Yes, I believe that is the case, and I would certainly hope it happens.

However, I have deliberately suggested the Gov, in an attempt to be able to say "we gave the People a choice" might come up with the above options. And if they don't give us, the people, a vote, this might be what out MPs are asked to vote upon !

I don't like it. Clearly I don't like Brexit. I'm just trying to sound out possible scenarios !

Politicians are pretty good at blaming "others" and who better to blame than The Electorate !

Thanks, Don. Yes, I can see why you've anticipated what questions May & co might wish to put to the people, if they felt a second referendum were unavoidable.  However, they would need to the House of Commons to vote in support of a second referendum and I don't think HMG would have the parliamentary votes to be able to force through a second referendum with the choice between accepting May's 'deal' or no deal i.e. 'we're still leaving so you only have a choice between two means of doing so'.  Indeed,if May's deal, as amended by negotiations with the EU, couldn't command a majority in the HoC, I suspect there are enough MPs to support a motion to instruct the government to go back to the negotiating table and to keep the UK in the EU in the meantime (in other words, seeking an extension to the Art 50 timetable, which the rest of the EU is very likely to agree to).

Mike

I think this looks as close as MPs are going to get to a "meaningful" vote. And it's probably what will happen if they don't like the "Deal".

ie MPs could effectively instruct the Gov to continue negotiating until we get an acceptable deal. Meanwhile, we extend the A.50 timetable and remain as some sort of entity within the EU.

Perhaps !

Don Atkinson posted:

Dave***t posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I know we've been here before, but, if The Peoples' Vote became a reality (it won't, but don't let that get in the way) how would you vote, assuming the choice was:-

1. Accept the Deal and Leave

2. Leave without a Deal

And yes. I know we don't yet know what "The Deal" will look like, but let's face it, if such a vote did come upon us, most of the electorate wouldn't have a clue what "The Deal" comprised nor its implications for our future. Nor would they have much idea what implications a "No Deal" would have.

This is simply the equivalent of asking 'are you an extremist, sever-ties-at-any-cost Brexiteer or not?'.  So there'll be some support for jumping off the cliff without a parachute, but it won't get anywhere near winning.  Just as there's the ERG in parliament, and then there's people who aren't lunatic vampires.

The 'people's vote' only makes sense if it includes the option of rejecting the deal and staying in.

Yes I know. And like IB below, I have suggested a few voting options that include the most sensible IMHO ie "we Remain"

But if you were invited to vote on the basis I outlined above, what would you do ?

It's hypothetical i know, but such an option of vote choice would be yet another Tory government act of defrauding democracy, and such a vote would only be of interest to [ 17 million? ] Brexiteers. I don't understand why any Remainer would lower themselves to vote on it, i wouldn't vote on it, wouldn't have anything to do with giving kudos to Brexit fascist ideology.

Debs

Debs,

I agree with your assessment 100%.

I don't think we, the electorate, will get another vote on this issue, so it's hypothetical. However, it strikes me, that this is the sort of "meaningful" vote that MPs might be faced with.

Hopefully, Mike's (MDS) view above will be a more likely scenarion, but who knows how things will pan out ?

naim_nymph posted:

It's hypothetical i know, but such an option of vote choice would be yet another Tory government act of defrauding democracy, and such a vote would only be of interest to [ 17 million? ] Brexiteers. I don't understand why any Remainer would lower themselves to vote on it, i wouldn't vote on it, wouldn't have anything to do with giving kudos to Brexit fascist ideology.

Debs

The problem with that is that we don't actually live in a democracy: we live in a representative democracy - not the same thing at all.

Ron,

such a vote wouldn't be meaningful, but totally meaningless to a huge majority of electorate; like asking a vegetarian how they'd like a steak cooked, well done or rare.

I can't see them getting away with such a obvious outrage to UK democracy, however the Peoples Vote specifies having the option of remaining with the EU,

I strongly believe a Peoples Vote will prevail and the outcome of the vote save us from the bonkers Brexit abyss of doom.

Debs

Debs,

I do hope you are right. It's what myself. IB and a few others have been recommending and hoping for at the very least.

Personally, I would be happy for the Gov to wake up and tell us this nightmare is over, we are remaining ! But I don't hold much hope for that !

And whilst i'm not a vegitarian, I do like your analagy.

Hear! hear!