Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

HH posted:

"I cannot abide Cameron, but on his support for continuing membership of the EU he has my support"

A viewpoint I largely support, although there are other members of Cameron's party for whom I reserve most of my distaste.

Unfortunately, a referendum on Europe was in the Conservative party manifesto simply because the party was terrified that growing support for UKIP would lose them the election. Certainly Cameron himself, and I believe the majority of his party, would be strongly opposed to an exit from the EU.

Unfortunately, I think that MDS is right to be concerned that the referendum will be skewed by individuals who are highly motivated and have narrow-minded prejudices. I hasten to add that many of those in favour of an exit will not fall into this category, and will have (for them) genuine and rational reasons (albeit misguided in my view) for wanting to exit. However, the most highly motivated to vote will be those with the narrow-minded prejudices. Unfortunately, their votes combined with a politically apathetic majority of people on the other side may just sway the outcome.   

MDS posted:

dayjay posted:

Let us hope then that they have learned their lessons Mike because this will be an important decision 

Mightily important, especially for our children and their children. I will be casting my vote for their futures rather than mine.  But here's the irony: I have three adult children, all working, and none have the slightest interest in this important issue and probably won't vote.   Hence my fear that their futures will be decided by those who will vote in the referendum, many of which are motivated by some narrow-minded prejudices.

This does sound like an argument against the democratic principle. But in reality the careless should have as much power to have a say as the solemn. Are the solemn [I am one] always right?

The evidence of history does not indicate that the solemn, nor the careless are more right than the other ...

Then it presents an opportunity to mobilise the silent majority, those who have decent, fair minded views, on either side of the fence, so that we see a triumph for democracy and not a disaster.  Let us see if our politicians and those who have influence in society are up to it.  In the Scottish debate I was surprised by how passionate and eloquent some of them were once the chips were down

Neither outcome will be a disaster!

Things will be different, but the outcome will not be a disaster, either way.

Hungryhalibut posted:

Only a moron would vote to leave Europe and watch the economy collapse. There should be no referendum, it should be left to Parliament. But Cameron is terrified of his right wing, so we end up in a position where the uninformed, racist or both, could potentially do untold damage to the UK and our friends across the Channel. 

While this ridiculous charade unfolds, investment decisions will be delayed, the economy will falter and airtime will be given to those who want to turn back the clock fifty years. England for the English!! Or, hopefully, not.

 

+1

Indeed. A Brexit would cause damage on both sides of the Channel.

Which is exactly why having left the EU everything will carry on on a different but satisfactory course. Europe needs us far more than we need Europe in terms of giving up sovereignty. They can meet us on our terms having given Cameron the gigue in pointless face saving renegotiations. Germany is not going to stop buying what we make well, and we are not going to stop buying what Germany makes well ...

There will be changes, but nothing to fear.

An interesting post, especially for a non-Brit who grew up in West London.

I have vivid memories of queing up in front of the Polish Embassy on Portland Place to vote in a referendum. The referendum was about Poland joining the EU. I stood there, in the rain for 4 hours just to cast my YES vote.

For me that was the only obvious choice.

As for leaving the EU? Complete and utter madness. But what do I know...

Not really sure about that...

Europe needs us far more than we need Europe

Europe [except Poland and the UK] has been flat-lining economically for years. We have not flat lined - look at the employment figures.. They need us and will continue to trade. but like Australia we need, as an island nation, to control borders and our own rules.

It's all a bit scary as a Brit living in France.

Despite having paid (a lot of) tax here for the past nine years, I suspect it will become at the very least massively more bureaucratic for UK nationals living in the EU (of whom there are far more than vice-versa I believe). 

This is simply too multi-layered an issue to be put to a referendum that may well he decided by the (popularist) opinions of Murdoch and Dacre/Rothermere.

Whatever one's opinions on politics here, it seems as though Cameron has misplayed this. It was as much a sop to UKIP as it was to his own bachbenchers (whom he can control), and UKIP turned out to be the straw dog many people suspected they would be.

With the state of the oil price (upon which all of the SNP's economic prediction and assertions were based), the idea of a Scottish independence vote rerun are severely curtailed, and the likelihood of an even greater result in favour of keeping the union, even if the rest of the UK left the EU, increased. Sturgeon and Salmond both know this, so despite the anomalies and ammunition for a new Scottish referendum, that wouldn't happen any time soon.

The real problem is that everyone's partisan stance means it is difficult to gauge the financial benefits/costs of EU membership for the UK. I for one am not convinced that leaving will constitute a fiscal gain for the UK (the reverse probably) and even if it might, it's too much of a risk to take, as it certainly won't win us any friends.

We have little to gain and much to lose. But you can't quantity either...

Besides, my only option might be actually to become French, and that would mean having to unlearn how to drive including  having the ability to indicate in a car somehow surgically removed.

Adam Zielinski posted:

An interesting post, especially for a non-Brit who grew up in West London.

I have vivid memories of queing up in front of the Polish Embassy on Portland Place to vote in a referendum. The referendum was about Poland joining the EU. I stood there, in the rain for 4 hours just to cast my YES vote.

For me that was the only obvious choice.

As for leaving the EU? Complete and utter madness. But what do I know...

As a Pole, you would first and foremost be interested for Poland, not the UK unless you are a very rare case.  I have quite a few Polish friends in UK [I have been to Poland five times in the last ten years], and they all wonder if they should apply for a UK Passport. I told them yes! I like them very much.

But the reality is the UK has in the main had enough. 

ATB from George

Frenchnaim posted:

Not really sure about that...

Europe needs us far more than we need Europe

Dear Frenchnaim.

You quote me partially, which is by no means the actions of a Frenchman in the tradition of Voltaire.

I shall make no further comment on you post. 

Best wishes from George

winkyincanada posted:

Selfishness, fears and prejudice drive the debates in these matters. My own view is that overall good is seldom achieved by partitioning people into smaller tribes, tightening borders and erecting economic barriers.

Taking Winky's point, should Britain leave the EU,  I hope you all know that you will have a welcoming friend here in the US ready to lend economic and govermental support. Same goes for our close friends in Canada. 

George Fredrik Fiske posted:

...
Of course we cannot have referendums on every issue, 
...

ATB from George

No, of course, that would make the country a democracy, and we can't have that can we? 

Looking at the information (?) that has so far been disseminated, it would appear that the debate that occurs in public will be directed by statements that are at best misinformed or incomplete; or, more likely, deliberately distorted versions of the truth bent to reflect the proponents specific political position, whether that be declared or undeclared.

I do hope some more honest brokers step forward to present a balanced view of the potential benefits and risks of both positions.  However I fear that their voices will not make newsworthy stories and the misinformation will hence be further promulgated.  I also fear that the nature of this will be obfuscated to the extent that many of the British population will not be able to distinguish the distortions contained within.

It's all quite simply really, the UK will be damned for remaining or doomed for leaving  

It would be very interesting to have a forum poll vote with 1 option selection from:

* Remain a member of the European Union
* Leave the European Union
* Have not decided yet
* Not going to vote

Plus - change of mind option

I was going to set up an EU in or out poll vote myself but couldn't fathom out how it's done these days on the present hoop.la

Sadly it don't look like we are allowed to set up poll votes now, or the real-thing EU vote come to think of it : (

Debs

Huge posted:

George Fredrik Fiske posted:

...
Of course we cannot have referendums on every issue, 
...

ATB from George

No, of course, that would make the country a democracy, and we can't have that can we? 

I live in a country that has four referendums each year with three or four items to vote on each time so it certainly is possible. But you are right in that the UK wouldn't be able to cope with anything like real democracy.

rodwsmith posted:

It's all a bit scary as a Brit living in France.

Despite having paid (a lot of) tax here for the past nine years, I suspect it will become at the very least massively more bureaucratic for UK nationals living in the EU (of whom there are far more than vice-versa I believe). 

This is simply too multi-layered an issue to be put to a referendum that may well he decided by the (popularist) opinions of Murdoch and Dacre/Rothermere.

Whatever one's opinions on politics here, it seems as though Cameron has misplayed this. It was as much a sop to UKIP as it was to his own bachbenchers (whom he can control), and UKIP turned out to be the straw dog many people suspected they would be.

With the state of the oil price (upon which all of the SNP's economic prediction and assertions were based), the idea of a Scottish independence vote rerun are severely curtailed, and the likelihood of an even greater result in favour of keeping the union, even if the rest of the UK left the EU, increased. Sturgeon and Salmond both know this, so despite the anomalies and ammunition for a new Scottish referendum, that wouldn't happen any time soon.

The real problem is that everyone's partisan stance means it is difficult to gauge the financial benefits/costs of EU membership for the UK. I for one am not convinced that leaving will constitute a fiscal gain for the UK (the reverse probably) and even if it might, it's too much of a risk to take, as it certainly won't win us any friends.

We have little to gain and much to lose. But you can't quantity either...

Besides, my only option might be actually to become French, and that would mean having to unlearn how to drive including  having the ability to indicate in a car somehow surgically removed.

I agree with all you have written Rod, including the prognosis on Scotland.

The parts I have highlighted confirm my view that getting hard facts about the economic advantages of staying or leaving is difficult and politicians and the press are primarily playing on emotions. Not a good basis for important decisions.

Huge posted:

Looking at the information (?) that has so far been disseminated, it would appear that the debate that occurs in public will be directed by statements that are at best misinformed or incomplete; or, more likely, deliberately distorted versions of the truth bent to reflect the proponents specific political position, whether that be declared or undeclared.

I do hope some more honest brokers step forward to present a balanced view of the potential benefits and risks of both positions.  However I fear that their voices will not make newsworthy stories and the misinformation will hence be further promulgated.  I also fear that the nature of this will be obfuscated to the extent that many of the British population will not be able to distinguish the distortions contained within.

As with Rod's post above, I agree with what you have written.

I was non-plussed by Stephen Johnson's (Boris's Dad !) piece on Jeremy Vine's show today in which he set out his view that we should remain in Europe for environmental reasons. He seemed to suggest that without the environment issues, we would be better off out of Europe - but gave no reason.

I'm not proposing that we should leave, but I rather suspect there are issues equally important to the environment that we need to consider.

I never said that!!!!! 

Does anybody have a good reference that sets out the economic case for staying v leaving ?

Does anybody have a good reference setting out the principal issues that should be considered ?

Steve J posted:

I never said that!!!!! 

I'm sure you did ! I was listening very carefully

Don Atkinson posted:

Does anybody have a good reference that sets out the economic case for staying v leaving ?

Does anybody have a good reference setting out the principal issues that should be considered ?

Is it not the case that the basis for much of the dissatisfaction with the EU, as far as  the UK is concerned, lies in the fact that the original scenario, that of a free trade area, has been hijacked over the years by those wishing to create a European super state, with all the bureaucracy which has resulted?

Had we stuck to the initial concept, and not allowed our self promoting politicians to strike deals behind the scenes, then we would more than likely not be having the present discussion.

Dave.

Quite. The UK voted for the EEC and got the EU.

Two rather different animals.