Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Willy posted:

Huge posted:

Willy posted:

You may argue that technically it isn't a "lie" but it betrays a deliberate intent on the part of Osbourne to deceive. Unforgivable in a serving Chancellor.

Willy.

Both sides have used estimated predictive figures to deceive - no difference there.

Agreed. 

The exit campaign have also lied about past facts that can be established with sufficient precision to prove that their claims are a lie.

 

In Osbourne's published methodology, that has been widely analysed, it clearly states that the value they used for GDP was from the end of the model period and the number if households from the start. Fact. Proven. No one has been able to explain why this, statistically invalid, approach was taken other than as a deliberate attempt to deceive the public. Arguably no better, or worse, than the leave campaign misrepresentations, although, as I've said before, to my mind unforgivable for a serving Chancellor to wilfully deceive the public on the economy.  (Yes I know that it happens all the time, doesn't make it any less unforgivable).

Willy.

 

You have described a procedural error, and ascribed a reason why it occurred (i.e. conspiracy rather than cock-up), but yet haven't proven it to be a lie (the £4300 figure could still come true).

In Osbourne's published methodology, that has been widely analysed, it clearly states that the value they used for GDP was from the end of the model period and the number if households from the start. Fact. Proven.

 

As the whole object of the calculation was to analyse the situation in 2030, the value of GDP in 2030 MUST be used.

 The value of national GDP (2030) was divided by the number of households to calculate the GDP per household. More households equals lower GDP per household, less households equals higher GDP per household. Therefore if he’d used the future number of households (presumably, a higher figure) GDP per household would have been less. In turn the £4,300 figure would be higher.

Seems more than fair to me.

JamieWednesday posted:

I think Royal Mail are trying to give me a hint about how to vote.

Sent a parcel off to France last week. He's not received it yet. So, I've been on website to track it and apparently it arrived in Curitiba, Brazil a few days back. And it's still there. (Rang up the nice people at Royal Mail earlier to enquire what happens next and the long and short of it is 'Tough', I can't report it lost until 13th July apparently. Though I suppose technically it isn't lost. They know where it is, it's just on the wrong side of the planet from where it's meant to be). Anyway, it seems our national postal service is gearing up to do more biz with South America rather then extend the current entente...

Sounds familiar Jamie .

A postal vote not a good Idea then.

G

fatcat posted:

In Osbourne's published methodology, that has been widely analysed, it clearly states that the value they used for GDP was from the end of the model period and the number if households from the start. Fact. Proven.

 

As the whole object of the calculation was to analyse the situation in 2030, the value of GDP in 2030 MUST be used.

 The value of national GDP (2030) was divided by the number of households to calculate the GDP per household. More households equals lower GDP per household, less households equals higher GDP per household. Therefore if he’d used the future number of households (presumably, a higher figure) GDP per household would have been less. In turn the £4,300 figure would be higher.

Seems more than fair to me.

It was the projected reduction in GDP that was divided by number of households. My bad for not explaining it clearly.

Willy.

Huge posted:

Willy posted:

Huge posted:

Willy posted:

You may argue that technically it isn't a "lie" but it betrays a deliberate intent on the part of Osbourne to deceive. Unforgivable in a serving Chancellor.

Willy.

Both sides have used estimated predictive figures to deceive - no difference there.

Agreed. 

The exit campaign have also lied about past facts that can be established with sufficient precision to prove that their claims are a lie.

 

In Osbourne's published methodology, that has been widely analysed, it clearly states that the value they used for GDP was from the end of the model period and the number if households from the start. Fact. Proven. No one has been able to explain why this, statistically invalid, approach was taken other than as a deliberate attempt to deceive the public. Arguably no better, or worse, than the leave campaign misrepresentations, although, as I've said before, to my mind unforgivable for a serving Chancellor to wilfully deceive the public on the economy.  (Yes I know that it happens all the time, doesn't make it any less unforgivable).

Willy.

 

You have described a procedural error, and ascribed a reason why it occurred (i.e. conspiracy rather than cock-up), but yet haven't proven it to be a lie (the £4300 figure could still come true).

In which case Osbourne and his staff aren't  trying to deceive us they're just incompetent to a degree that wouldn't pass muster at O level statistics.

Very reassuring.

Willy.

Innocent Bystander posted:

I predict that the vote will be carried by 'the great unwashed', if you'll pardon my use of the phrase, to the wholesale consernation of the bulk of UK politicians who have singularly failed to grasp the enormity of the Pandora's box they have opened, as the penny drops among the masses during the day that there's something going on and they might just be able to make a difference. By way of example, an EastEnder, long since resigned to the fact that his/her home town is now 'overrun by XX' (where XX may be any visually different race, different from what the said person regards as his/her own brethren), and even though not considering him/herself a racist person, always trying to accept the modern world, he/she suddenly twigs that by voting the said immigrant people will leave, 'giving England back to the English' as he/she may view it. Yes, that is totally getting the wrong end of the immigration stick, as it were, but hey, didn't some bloke on the TV said we could vote out and get rid of immigrants?

...and if we then have a long, hot, summer, watch out for riots as some of these people start to think they,ve been tricked, andor racial tensions stirred up by some of the campaigning start to surface.

i hope my prediction is wrong

Even in the worse rhetoric I don't recall hearing anyone say that a vote for out would get rid of immigrants?

And in other news... large numbers of commuters are stuck at the London stations, unable to get home and cast their votes.

I thought this op-ed did a pretty good job of skewering both sides:

On November 11, 1947, Winston Churchill, then ex-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, rose to speak at a debate in the House of Commons:

 “Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise.

 Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time; 

but there is the broad feeling in our country that the people should rule, continuously rule, and that public opinion, expressed by all constitutional means, should shape, guide, and control the actions of Ministers who are their servants and not their masters.”

 This may be the perfect summation of what democracy is supposed to be.

 And western nations-- particularly the US and UK-- have been champions of ‘democracy’ around the world (though they typically mean ‘republic’).

 Now, today the voters of the United Kingdom go to the polls to decide whether or not their country will remain in the European Union.

 This is about as democratic as it gets-- direct voting by the people to choose their fate.

 Or so they claim.

 In reality, each side has had a long, drawn out campaign to influence the outcome.

 The ‘leave’ leadership has been scaring voters with horrific stories of evil brown people who will infiltrate the United Kingdom should the country remain in the EU.

 I mean, I’ve seen more subtle propaganda coming out of North Korea.

 Meanwhile the ‘remain’ side has been threatening eternal economic damnation and financial Armageddon.

 Most of the political and media establishment falls in the ‘remain’ camp, so this is where the propaganda becomes painfully obvious.

 The IMF, for example, published a report recently suggesting that Britain leaving the EU would permanently lower incomes in the United Kingdom.

 Really? Permanently?

 So if voters choose to leave the EU, then the UK, which traces its sovereignty back more than 1,000 years and once had an empire so vast they ruled the entire world, will never be able to recover forever and ever until the end of time…?

 We’re honestly supposed to believe that a few decades within the European Union has irrevocably thwarted Britain’s 1,000 year history in being able to achieve economic growth independently?

 Or that Iceland (not a member of the European Union) can do it, but the UK cannot?

 Or that a bunch of IMF bureaucrats can see decades, let alone centuries into the future with 100% certainty?

 This is such blatant scaremongering, they’re not even pretending to be professional and unbiased. And this is direct from one of the top financial agencies in the world.

 Clearly these people truly love democracy and embrace the idea of voters independently determining their own fate.

 The British government (firmly in the ‘remain’ camp) has been using taxpayer funds to support its cause, which is really bizarre when you think about it.

 If you’re British, even if you want to vote ‘leave’, the government has been using your money to influence your vote in the other direction.

 One of the most absurd scare tactics has been telling people that they’ll lose visa-free travel rights to the European continent if the UK leaves the EU.

 This is completely absurd.

 Nicaragua has visa-free travel to Europe. Paraguay has visa-free travel to Europe. Are we really supposed to believe that Brits will be shut off from the continent?

 They’ve rolled out every possible threat, every human emotion, every celebrity they can find, to influence voters.

 In fact, these people love democracy so much they even had Barack Obama fly in to explain to British voters why they should remain in the EU.

 (Because, of course, Mr. Obama would willingly hand over US sovereignty to a pan-American political commission based in Mexico City…)

 Whichever side wins, it’s clear that no one in power gives a damn what voters want.

 Despite having waged wars in foreign lands to ‘make the world safe for democracy’ and despite all the song and bombastic speech about your freedom, they have no respect for your right to self-determination, or even their own electoral system.

 All they care about is getting their own way.

 And they’re willing to engage in the most vile propaganda and blatant manipulation to do so.

 This is a pitiful excuse for the democracy they claim to love so much.

dayjay posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

I predict that the vote will be carried by 'the great unwashed', if you'll pardon my use of the phrase, to the wholesale consernation of the bulk of UK politicians who have singularly failed to grasp the enormity of the Pandora's box they have opened, as the penny drops among the masses during the day that there's something going on and they might just be able to make a difference. By way of example, an EastEnder, long since resigned to the fact that his/her home town is now 'overrun by XX' (where XX may be any visually different race, different from what the said person regards as his/her own brethren), and even though not considering him/herself a racist person, always trying to accept the modern world, he/she suddenly twigs that by voting the said immigrant people will leave, 'giving England back to the English' as he/she may view it. Yes, that is totally getting the wrong end of the immigration stick, as it were, but hey, didn't some bloke on the TV said we could vote out and get rid of immigrants?

...and if we then have a long, hot, summer, watch out for riots as some of these people start to think they,ve been tricked, andor racial tensions stirred up by some of the campaigning start to surface.

i hope my prediction is wrong

Even in the worse rhetoric I don't recall hearing anyone say that a vote for out would get rid of immigrants?

I didn't mean to imply anycampaigner had actually said that, but I think it is a fair guess that among the less literate and informed of the population at large some people will have taken the rhetoric that way.

dayjay posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

I predict that the vote will be carried by 'the great unwashed', if you'll pardon my use of the phrase, to the wholesale consernation of the bulk of UK politicians who have singularly failed to grasp the enormity of the Pandora's box they have opened, as the penny drops among the masses during the day that there's something going on and they might just be able to make a difference. By way of example, an EastEnder, long since resigned to the fact that his/her home town is now 'overrun by XX' (where XX may be any visually different race, different from what the said person regards as his/her own brethren), and even though not considering him/herself a racist person, always trying to accept the modern world, he/she suddenly twigs that by voting the said immigrant people will leave, 'giving England back to the English' as he/she may view it. Yes, that is totally getting the wrong end of the immigration stick, as it were, but hey, didn't some bloke on the TV said we could vote out and get rid of immigrants?

...and if we then have a long, hot, summer, watch out for riots as some of these people start to think they,ve been tricked, andor racial tensions stirred up by some of the campaigning start to surface.

i hope my prediction is wrong

Even in the worse rhetoric I don't recall hearing anyone say that a vote for out would get rid of immigrants?

Neither do I. But, and it's a big BUT, just because something wasn't said, doesn't mean it wasn't implied or that willing ears didn't get the intended message.

It's not just the politicians Dr Mark.

Ordinary people over-emphasise their reasons for supporting Remain or Leave. It's disgraceful, I agree.

But if we were sitting around a fire in our cave, discussing whether to relocate our territory or fight the tribe on yonder hill who seem to be invading our pastures each wek, I bet there would be some animated and exaggerated discussion before every member of the tribe cast his vote.

Seeing the early results, it seems the UK is stupider, more racist, more selfish, more paranoid and more delusional than I imagined in my worst nightmares. I'm now kind of hoping they do vote to leave. The rest of the world might be better off without them.

I don't think the 5th biggest economy is going to leave the planet.

I still think it will be a stay result in the end.

winkyincanada posted:

Seeing the early results, it seems the UK is stupider, more racist, more selfish, more paranoid and more delusional than I imagined in my worst nightmares. I'm now kind of hoping they do vote to leave. The rest of the world might be better off without them.

Absolutely agreed. Good thing that I migrated to the US 20 years ago. However, I still care, but now I am deeply disappointed.

DrMark posted:

I don't think the 5th biggest economy is going to leave the planet.

I still think it will be a stay result in the end.

5th biggest? Not for long.......

Gentlemen

How about some respect for our friends. It's not your country and the outcome whatever it turns out to be will have resulted from a democratic process. We've all had our say over the past couple of months, now its time to wish them the best and trust that life will go on for all of us.

Clay Bingham posted:

Gentlemen

How about some respect for our friends. It's not your country and the outcome whatever it turns out to be will have resulted from a democratic process. We've all had our say over the past couple of months, now its time to wish them the best and trust that life will go on for all of us.

 

Respect for those that didn't vote for racism, intolerance and exclusion. Contempt for those that did.

winkyincanada posted:

DrMark posted:

I don't think the 5th biggest economy is going to leave the planet.

I still think it will be a stay result in the end.

5th biggest? Not for long.......

Stop throwing a tantrum - if they vote to leave they are not going to shrivel up and go away. The UK has been a major world economy for hundreds of years, and they were before the EU, and they will be after the EU...they will be between 4th and 6th for a long time. That is not going to change. Besides, my money is still on 'Stay' winning even at this late hour - all the power mongers want it.

The biggest problem if they leave is they will likely institute their home grown bloated bureaucracy and economic growth strangling/bad monetary policies instead of using continental ones. ("Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.") So they will get the same s**t results.

Plus if they leave, the political Stay crowd will do everything in their power (which is considerable) to make sure it is as painful as possible, in an effort to wrest back the control they may have lost. They'd rather children starve than lose their grip on things. (The Leave contingent isn't any better, but they don't wield near the political clout nor have the backing of "Indispensableistan" like the Stay side does.)

Maybe Hillary can drone the crap out of the Leave people...sure a lot of Stay people will die too, but collateral damage has a long precedent in US foreign policy & is just part of getting what you want done. Gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette.

If the EU is such a great economic situation, why is its economy on the brink of disaster? (And immigration has very little if anything to do with it. Overpaid, un-elected, elitist, technocrats in Brussels & deplorable fiscal and monetary policy are more harmful to the EU economies than any refugee crisis ever could be.)

winkyincanada posted:

Clay Bingham posted:

Gentlemen

How about some respect for our friends. It's not your country and the outcome whatever it turns out to be will have resulted from a democratic process. We've all had our say over the past couple of months, now its time to wish them the best and trust that life will go on for all of us.

 

Respect for those that didn't vote for racism, intolerance and exclusion. Contempt for those that did.

What an arrogant and judgemental view that is, and rather insulting to just over 50% of the U.K. Population who's votes have so far been counted.  There were far more factors at play than that very narrow list, and attitudes like yours, and others who refuse to listen to those who don't want to be ruled via Brussels, and who continue to play the race card, has only helped to push people into hardening their support for brexit.  There are many people who believe in democracy and tonight is democracy in action regardless of the end result

Whichever way the vote goes, the UK is a wonderful place (collection of places is probably more accurate) with many wonderful people.  That will not change.

I will say I hope UK politics don't polarize further, to the point where the parties can't even talk to each other, which point we seem to have reached in the US. 

Well, It is beginning to appear as though the UK may well have voted for an exit from the EU.  I sincerely hope that this turns out not to be the case, but I am becoming increasingly pessimistic.

I have to say that never in my life have I felt so disenfranchised in respect of the political scene in the UK. It appears that a large number of left wing labour supporters in the heartland of England may have swung the vote in favour of BREXIT as a result of a mixture of their distrust of the current UK Government in particular and politicians in general on the one hand, and misguided intolerance and fear on the other. Ironically, what they will achieve is a dramatic swing to the right in respect of the ruling Conservative party (and a party that was pretty right wing to begin with) and an extended period of economic, social and political turmoil. 

There are a number of likely follow up consequences of a vote (no matter how narrow) in favour of BREXIT. The positions of David Cameron,  George Osborne  and a number of other senior Conservative cabinet members will be completely untenable.  If, as seems likely, they feel compelled to resign, a general election will have to be triggered, leading to yet more economic uncertainty and instability. Who will lead the Conservative party into an election? Surely not Boris Johnson! or Michael Gove! Their campaigns have been so vitriolic in respect of the majority of their party that I cannot believe that the wounds they have created can be healed so quickly.

We may also be seeing the beginning of the demise of the UK.

As was to be expected, the constituencies in Scotland have almost completely voted overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU. I find it difficult to believe that there will not be a follow up national referendum in Scotland. And this time, I believe that the vote will be one for independence. This may well not dismay the majority of people in England and Wales who have voted for an EU exit. They may well view Scotland and its people in much the same way as they do the foreign 'invaders' from Europe, and say 'good riddance'. However, it does dismay me. And my main reason for predicting the break up of the UK, is that having been a lifelong supporter of the United Kingdom, I am now for the first time in my life considering voting for independence if a second referendum is called. I would not have believed that this was a remote possibility until now. I guess if I feel this way, a very significant number of people in Scotland who voted against independence last time round will feel the same. I will certainly have nothing in common with a country that is governed by the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage.

A sad, sad day for the country in so many ways.    

At least holidays to the UK will be cheap for a while.

dayjay posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Clay Bingham posted:

Gentlemen

How about some respect for our friends. It's not your country and the outcome whatever it turns out to be will have resulted from a democratic process. We've all had our say over the past couple of months, now its time to wish them the best and trust that life will go on for all of us.

 

Respect for those that didn't vote for racism, intolerance and exclusion. Contempt for those that did.

What an arrogant and judgemental view that is, and rather insulting to just over 50% of the U.K. Population who's votes have so far been counted.  There were far more factors at play than that very narrow list, and attitudes like yours, and others who refuse to listen to those who don't want to be ruled via Brussels, and who continue to play the race card, has only helped to push people into hardening their support for brexit.  There are many people who believe in democracy and tonight is democracy in action regardless of the end result

I agree with you that there are far more factors at play (or at least that their should be), but you're being naive if you think that a fair chunk (but no, not all) of the "Leavers" weren't motivated by distrust and/or hatred for people "not like them". The future of your country should not be decided by xenophobes and racists. It is a sad day for all of us.

Bottom line is that this was far too important a decision, and it is far too complex, for it to be decided by referendum. Your leadership is weak and spineless.

The result has certainly proved the old adage that you can fool all (well a majority) of the people some of the time. And for all of the time some (a few) will continue to be fooled.

Stupidity and nationalism have won. But at least it's over now. A narrow win for the Remain campaign would have led to never ending discussions and haggle with the EU.