Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

A new Scottish referendum, with a leave result, seems inevitable. IMO a majority of Scots wanted to get away from being dictated to by an England which was way to the right of where they were, but held back for other reasons. Now they're being asked to accept a totally huge change which they clearly don't want, because England wants it. It can't last.

Labour won't propose to reverse the result, no one will.

Personally I think Corbyn is closest to the right idea in domestic politics terms - much of the disaffection behind the leave vote is because of disconnect and perceived disenfranchisement (hmm, soft alliteration), and turning attention towards neoliberalism's losers is right up his ideological street.

There are 3 problems I think stand in the way, though. One, the wider public see Farage as a more believable pro-the-little-guy voice (laughable, politically, but true). Two, the PLP is essentially a different party to the Labour membership (which I think may well re-elect Corbyn if given the chance) and will do everything they can to oust him. And three, the media will sideline and undermine him at every turn - even putting the hysterical tone of most newspapers to one side, in the BBC's coverage this afternoon, there were moments where the badgering about whether Corbyn must go veered into the all too common bias. And I say that as someone who loves the BBC, while mourning its performance in politics coverage over the past few years.

If the Blairites win control of Labour, the 'turkeys voting for Christmas' phenomenon will only get more entrenched. I'd vote for a Corbyn Labour party. But if the only Labour party available to vote for at the time had lurched to the right, I'd be more inclined to move to Scotland while I still can (hyperbole, of course, but not entirely!).

First of all Spain will walk into Gibraltar on the pretext that the Gibs voted to stay in the EU. Then the Argentinians will have a crack at the Falkland Islands in a sympathy with the Spanish and Gibraltar. 

We have to hope that the new aircraft carriers are up and running and are stocked with the US sourced planes.

While the French and rest of Europe are sitting at home watching it happen on their Sky connected TV sets twiddling their thumbs.

Harry posted:

Labour should give it a year to sink in and for the panic and revulsion to start rising, then start campaigning as the party to U turn the EU exit. "Vote for us and we'll fix the mistake". It can't decrease their chances but what do I know? I don't think they'd have the balls (no pun intended) in any case.

Labour have to give up on the EU.  That is gone ... we've voted (for good or bad) to leave the EU and the EU (as they always said) will not give the opportunity for a U-turn.

In the next few weeks Labour need to present their vision of the UK outside the EU.  They lost the opportunity to present how the UK can prosper in the EU!  How they are going to help the disaffected areas; how they are going to improve the Northern parts of the country, return them to prosperity which has been lost since the closure of the pits and the diminishing of industry in those areas.  A vision where the workers and business work together; a symbiotic relationship - yes there will be inequality; but stop trying to pretend this is a classless utopia we live in.  Some people work, some people think - that doesn't mean either is of less value than the other.  Start a programme of council (or social landlord lead) house building ... give people homes they can call their own and be proud of.  Even support private land lords who will act responsibly - offering long term; affordable tenancies.  Just stop telling everyone that if they don't own their own home they are a failure.

Personally I think a vision of the "new" England and Wales (as is likely) would involve massive constitutional (such as proper reform of the House of Lords into an elected, accountable second house) and parliamentary changes as well (the relocation of the seat of government could help spur Northern investment for example) ... but that might be a step too far for many people.

But without a vision they can promote as a unified party (and that means all sides may need to compromise and have the willingness to kick out dissenting voices) they will never win back the people.  They can't ignore immigration as a concern, but with proper management immigration didn't have to become the problem that people hung all their concerns on.

I suspect Corbyn would not be the leader of a reformed, reinvigorated party; he could have done it at the start of this campaign but his ship has likely sailed.  But a lurch back to Blairite policies is going to alienate the Labour heartland more and more; seeing Labour sidelined and the Tories effectively becoming unstoppable.  The essential thing is to listen to the people, you don't then pander to them and their baser instincts, but pursued them that what is good for the country is good for them.

Derek Wright posted:

First of all Spain will walk into Gibraltar on the pretext that the Gibs voted to stay in the EU. Then the Argentinians will have a crack at the Falkland Islands in a sympathy with the Spanish and Gibraltar. 

We have to hope that the new aircraft carriers are up and running and are stocked with the US sourced planes.

The planes don't even work yes (IIRC).  Perhaps the US Marines will lend us some of the Harriers we sold them.

For anyone interested ... there is an interesting (albeit from a pollster) breakdown of the demographics of who voted for Remain and Leave ... http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2...-80ea4229e4-71635453

DAVE***T posted:

I'd vote for a Corbyn Labour party.

Until this current referendum campaign, so would I. However, as a number of labour politicians and supporters have stated already today, this campaign amounted to a leadership test for Corbyn, and in that respect he failed miserably, or simply didn't want to try. Irrespective of whether or not I agree with some of his political views, if he simply cannot win a general election for the Labour party, or even close the gap, then he is about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

The labour heartland of  England (and to an extent Wales) is haemorrhaging supporters at an alarming rate. Is this a dramatic swing to the right (I hope not) or simply a disaffection with politics in general (I hope so)? Whatever the reason, England is in danger of becoming a one party state with a Conservative party that is likely to veer more and more to the right and further dividing the social classes of this country. Labour is genuinely in danger of becoming another fringe party at the same sort of level as the Liberal party, and we (or at least the English and Welsh if Scotland and Northern Ireland choose to leave) will face a future of increasingly divisive politics and social and economic turmoil for many years to come. 

Something has to be done about this. The current status quo in the Labour party is just not good enough.

FRANK F posted:

The European parliament and Commission need to recognise that the Federalist idea is dead for most Countries and they must wave olive branch or so to Boris et alles. If I remember correctly that was Boris's first thought when he announced that he had come out of the closet?

Unfortunately this is unlikely to happen. I have been following the reaction in Europe today, and the predominant sentiment from leading politicians in Europe is that Britain is now out, and no longer has any say the EU. The sentiment is also that A) an exit must come as quickly as possible with no delay and no prevarication, and B) the exit must be made as painful as possible for the UK in an attempt to discourage any other countries from going down the same route.    

Corbyn was totally ineffectual, he is out of his time and out of his depth and the Labour Party will never regain power under him and with his policies - don't get me wrong, I think he is a decent honourable man who has stuck by his beliefs but he is not a leader and he is out of his depth.  We need a strong, modern opposition who are in touch with the electorate and not one trying to force an out dated belief set upon them whilst ignoring their views.  If we don't get a strong opposition I truly fear that people will be pushed to more extreme options like UKIP which would be a tragedy

Perhaps we need the Lib Dems again?

I'll get me coat

Bruce

Yeah. Why not split the Labour vote again? It worked so well for them last time, but not for the rest of us.

somebody mentioned - unintended consequences... and i believe that is the right word to use.

a. david cameron should not have asked for a referendum on this at all. Even if a referendum were held... the majority vote must be atleast 10% more then the minority ( Stay or Leave ). A difference of 1% is too minor for UK's future to be decided on.

Unfortunately - the genie is out of the bottle. For the UK and also for other nations in EU like France ( which goes to polls in the near future )

b. UK - in the short to medium term - will lose a lot of goodwill among the EU members and it could be a really hard on the negotiating table for UK. Loss of good will will not enable a sweet deal for the UK out of the EU.

One could argue - it was never a full union with the UK having its own currency and passport but the practicality of dis-entanglement of the markets will be painful to both parties.

c. A comparison with an island nation like Australia is rather silly. The UK does not have many natural resources and the Chinese can be trusted to out-compete in the manufacturing sector and many countries like India to out compete in the services sector.

One may wish to be like Australia but the context is totally different.

What is the USP of the UK outside of the EU market ?? This development would mean that in 2 years time Made in UK will compete with Made in EU ??

d. The voting demographics are very sad in terms of the fact that the aging ( and living on pension ?? )  population of UK has pushed out the younger generation of Britons of the EU market. An overwhelming majority of the young UK voter voted to remain in the EU.

This topic is 22 pages long and does the stay vs leave opinions reflect the age of the respondents in this thread ?? 

Congratulations to the OP for choosing the right word - sleep walking out of EU..

I wish good luck to the British people and also to the EU. 

We all wish ( i hope ) for a world that is inclusive and happy which need not be perfect.

PS : Why would 4 teams ( england / wales / ireland / rep of ireland ) play in the Euro 2016 ? maybe next time a 5th one will be added - Scotland ??  

regards

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Perhaps we need the Lib Dems again?

I'll get me coat

Not sure if you're serious ... But perhaps you should pass my coat too...

Eloise posted:

For anyone interested ... there is an interesting (albeit from a pollster) breakdown of the demographics of who voted for Remain and Leave ... http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2...-80ea4229e4-71635453

Presumably based on exit and other polls. But not everyone tells it straight, so inherently unreliable (As they are secret ballots, if I am asked I will give the information that Inbelieve will most further my cause - if the opposition ask, I may say I supported them, to lull into a false sense of security and ease up trying to drum up more. If the side I support, I may say the other, to keep them on their toes working at it. And if apparently independent questioner I may do the same, or pick randomly just to confound, as I see the whole pollong as pointless, the results being all. And I know I'm not the only one that responds that way...

mpw posted:

 

PS : Why would 4 teams ( england / wales / ireland / rep of ireland ) play in the Euro 2016 ? maybe next time a 5th one will be added - Scotland ??  

Ooooh ... A football question I know the answer to .... Not sure if you were asking seriously but here is the serious answer...

Although all part of the U.K.: England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland (Republic of Ireland is a separate country to the United Kingdom) all have separate football associations; each of which are affiliated to UEFA and therefore eligible to play in Euro 2016 (as well as separately playing in the World Cup).  

Scotland isn't at the Euro 2016 finals because they didn't qualify.

given the direction of travel a little ironic perhaps that all of the other home nations, in football this year, are in Europe but Scotland isn't. 

Are there a substantial number of people currently living and working in the UK who will now have to leave (as a consequence of the referendum outcome)? What about UK citizens living and working elsewhere in the EU? Do they have to go home?

The EU
If you only get back what you put in why bother to join?
If you get back less than you put in why bother to remain?
If you get back more than you put in why expect it to work?

To the british souls out there:

Well well you finally made it to be out of a place you never really wanted to be in. In the 70's your EU in choice was made out of pure economic gains, and until yesterday that was really you main obsession: Economic gain!  Now you have a chance to demonstrate your true capabilities. Good luck to you, but the very best of luck to the EU.

salvo

P.S. I hope my british nephews apply for a European passport, you never know!

WINKYINCANADA posted:

Are there a substantial number of people currently living and working in the UK who will now have to leave (as a consequence of the referendum outcome)? What about UK citizens living and working elsewhere in the EU? Do they have to go home?

No and No.

Much as the people who voted for an exit would like to kick out EU members, Boris Johnson has already stated that he wishes to more or less retain the Status Quo in respect of EU citizens working in the UK. Of course, if Nigel Farage has his way then this position may change.

UK citizens living and working in the EU will probably be able to remain, although their lives will be made much more difficult. In particular, those who have decided to retire to Europe will find that their pensions will be dramatically adversely affected by the change.

I just wonder how the labour supporters of BREXIT will feel when one of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Theresa May wins the Tory leadership and leads the Tory party to an overwhelming victory at the inevitable imminent general election.

Do they really believe that life will get better for them?

Hmack posted:

WINKYINCANADA posted:

Are there a substantial number of people currently living and working in the UK who will now have to leave (as a consequence of the referendum outcome)? What about UK citizens living and working elsewhere in the EU? Do they have to go home?

No and No.

Much as the people who voted for an exit would like to kick out EU members, Boris Johnson has already stated that he wishes to more or less retain the Status Quo in respect of EU citizens working in the UK. Of course, if Nigel Farage has his way then this position may change.

UK citizens living and working in the EU will probably be able to remain, although their lives will be made much more difficult. In particular, those who have decided to retire to Europe will find that their pensions will be dramatically adversely affected by the change.

Well actually it's "Unlikely" and "Unlikely"

Until negotiations are concluded the answer is no one knows.  Currently neither Fararge nor Johnson nor Gove have any (official) standing in any negotiations.

I am expecting the net result will be that free travel will continue between UK and the EU nations much like it is between Switzerland and Norway and will include rights for EU citizens to live in the UK but not claim benefits.  The converse will mean that UK citizens living in the EU will not be entitled to medical treatment or any EU benefits.

[flippant mode]While Mr Trump was here in the UK today and was expected to meet David Cameron (not sure if that has happened or not) I doubt plans or advice for a wall to keep those damn foreigners out was due to be discussed.[/flippant mode]

Adam Meredith posted:

I suppose one may take solace from the examples of Greece, Italy and Spain - Great Empires that continue to prosper.

Good, never miss a chance to spend a few kind words for someone...

Here, my dedication.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JabN35vDyE

Hmack posted:

I just wonder how the labour supporters of BREXIT will feel when one of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Theresa May wins the Tory leadership and leads the Tory party to an overwhelming victory at the inevitable imminent general election.

Do they really believe that life will get better for them?

The conservatives can only call an early election with the cooperation of Labour (2/3 majority needed to call election ahead of the schedule in the Fixed Term Parliament act) and/or Liberal Lords (to repeal said act).   Alternatively there can be a simple majority in a vote of no confidence in the government... Which would require conservatives to vote against themselves.

jfritzen posted:

On a practical side: what's going to change for Naim customers from the EU? Will there be a statement from Naim?

There will be a déclaration..

N.

Naimiac posted:

jfritzen posted:

On a practical side: what's going to change for Naim customers from the EU? Will there be a statement from Naim?

There will be a déclaration..

Of course Naim are French at least partly these days...