Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?
Posted by: Don Atkinson on 09 February 2016
Media interest seems to be focused on the trivial matter of "in-work benefits" to migrant workers from Europe.
Very little informed discussion of the benefits and consequences of us remaining part of Europe v the benefits and consequences of us leaving.
Or am I just not tuning into the appropriate TV channel or overlooking some "White Paper" that is on sale in WH Smith ?
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:Well our family was split in the end.. However from our so called youth vote - that is under 24, of those I know 4 were out (?) and 1 was in. So to talk about a 'youth vote' is plain wrong.
Excellent understanding of sampling statistics! The general trends amongst 'younger', 'older' and 'less well educated' voters were based on much larger, statistically significant, samples drawn across a wide range of areas not some family group in a little hamlet in the deepest depths of backward Suffolk!
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:Well our family was split in the end.. However from our so called youth vote - that is under 24, of those I know 4 were and 1 was in. So to talk about a 'youth vote' is plain wrong.
My end was the opposite, my family was predominantly Remain, daughter (in Glasto with sprog) is furious & hasn't stopped twittering. Last evening talking to a group of under 40's they were just as upset, but the one thing that did come out was they are aware of many of their age & under who did not vote & the concensus was that they/we have only got ourselves to blame. It would be interesting if one of the polling orgs have that info & publish % of vote turnout by age group. I see a report in the news this morning "There's evidence that areas with lots of younger voters tended to have lower turnouts............ " no data (yet)
Yes I agree, I personally am appalled by those that don't vote.. spoil your ballot card if you have to.. but not taking part in the voting process, well as you say, you have thrown away your democratic right and can't really criticise an outcome. On my travels I have come across a few elderly people who haven't voted.. They said they have had their time and left it to the younger generations... that I can just about accept.
Yes I have a niece, just turning 18, and she is appalled, sounds like your daughter, with quite a lot of rants now coming from her on Facebook.
An other interesting view would be male vs female... I suspect more women, especially younger women rather than men have been pro eu. If so it would be interesting to understand why.
But the positive, this is what engagement and democracy is about.. Perhaps for so long there has been nothing for younger voters to get passionate about.. And now there is. There is a lot to play for now and it would be great to see some of this younger passion translated in to creating and supporting new progressive outward facing policies and to set an example. Whether pro or against, Brexit for many has been about taking control.. So let's do so and partipate rather than merely follow the apathetic status quo eroding our democratic culture. I hope this passion is not merely a populist post election fad that will dissipate when people return to their normal lives....
Having had a chance to calm down a little and reflect on what has happened, my anger has given way to overwhelming disappointment and pessimism about the future for this country in particular and Europe in general.
It appears to me that there has been a hard-core of support in the UK for an EU exit, and who may have had genuine concerns about a gradual devolvement of power from the UK to EU parliament. The people have supported and always would have supported a break away, or at least a re-negotiation of membership conditions to counter this. A number of people in this group will also potentially have had legitimate concerns about the impact of large scale immigration in their particular areas. Whilst I don't subscribe to these particular views, I have no issue with those who voted this way. However, I don't think a significant number of them fully appreciated the enormity and future impact of the outcome of a 'Leave' win, and I suspect that more than a few will now be having second thoughts. However, this is (still) a democracy and everyone has the right to cast his or her vote in whatever way they choose.
I am particularly angered and disappointed in equal measure by the fact that, in my opinion, this referendum was won because of three main factors:
1. Nigel Farage and the UKIP Party (whose fringes begin to look more and more like the BNP or NF) conducted a campaign of rhetoric, extremely unattractive flag waving nationalism and scare-mongering that appears to have influenced and won over a surprisingly large number of the working classes in areas of the UK that were once the hinterland of Labour's working class supporters. Many of these people don't follow politics other than to choose not to vote, or to vote for the party they assume will have their best interests at heart. until recently, that would have been the Labour party, but they have become disaffected with politics in general and the recent ineffectiveness of the Labour party in particular. So, they jumped ship and latched on to Nigel and his rhetoric as something a little different and exciting. A bit like the tribal instincts of supporting one's national football or rugby team, or participating in the Eurovision Song Contest - "No one likes us, so we'll show them!" .
2. The defection and political opportunism of Boris Johnson and, to a much lesser extent Michael Gove definitely tipped the 'Leave' vote past the winning post. He comes across as a fairly affable and likable character (in complete contrast to Farage), and he definitely won over more than a few of the 'moderate' supporters for a 'non remain' vote. Interesting that despite his popularity as Mayor of London, he got a particularly rough reception from the people of London as he left for his victory speech. It was also interesting that his father was interviewed in the morning after wearing a 'Remain' T-shirt. I really do believe that Boris Johnson now realises the enormity of what has happened, and what lies in store for him, and is beginning to have some regret about what he has done. I also suspect that many people in this Group voted 'Leave' largely to provide a perceived backing for the re-negotiation of the UK's position within the EU.
3. The inability, or unwillingness of Jeremy Corbyn to campaign effectively and influence the traditional Labour voters. I am still unsure as to whether Corbyn actually favoured an exit from the EU (but couldn't be seen to hold this view), or thought that a leave vote (or close call) would de-stabalise the Tory party and lay the grounds for a Labour recovery at the next general election, or was just plain incompetent.
The outcome of all this is that we are out of the EU and will never be permitted re-entry. I find it extremely sad that many of the supporters of the Leave' campaign would now wish the EU itself to self destruct and break up, purely out of nationalistic self interest and with no thought for the misery and chaos this would cause in many parts of Europe. I don't think this will happen, but if it does, one thing is certain. It will simply add to the political, economic and social turmoil that we already have in the UK as a result of our referendum vote. One thing is for sure. We will not benefit from such a scenario. The main beneficiaries will be the trading giants of China, Russia and to a lesser extent the US.
For those people who are envious or irritated by Germany's perceived position as head of the EU, Germany will be OK. They are the main players in the EU for two very valid reasons. They have an amazingly robust economy in spite of the recent turmoil caused by the integration of East Germany, and importantly, they (unlike the UK) have fully embraced the concepts of the Common Market and the EU. They will be fine, and possibly better off out of the EU. They have a huge manufacturing base on which they can draw from for their future prosperity. What does the UK have? We have decimated our manufacturing base over the past five or six decades, and we have built up a flourishing financial services sector that will be significantly weaker outside the EU.
I worry about a number of things for the future.
What will happen when those voters from the left (the lower paid or socially disadvantaged) who deserted to the call of Nigel Farage and UKIP realise that he does not have their interests at heart, the short term euphoric nationalism wears thin and the penny drops that the new more right leaning Tory Government is not going pass laws and introduce policies that are in their interests. Those people in the 60+ demographic (and who were apparently the biggest supporters of BREXIT) will potentially have to face the possibility of their pensions and other benefits being eroded yet more by the new Government. The result is likely to be yet more social chaos and unrest on a huge scale.
I am not overly optimistic about the prospects of Scotland and Northern Ireland either.
Northern Ireland has voted, as could have been predicted, on largely sectarian grounds. This decision, and the common border it shares with the Republic of Ireland, is bound to stir up old tensions. I don't even want to consider the potential consequences.
As for Scotland, I feel that Independence within two years or so is almost inevitable. Some people in Scotland, and I have no doubt a significant number of people in England, will be pretty happy about this. As someone who will now seriously consider voting for Independence, I like many others in Scotland will have grave concerns about Scotland's future as a small country on its own (particularly if Europe does flounder), or as a small and very insignificant independent country within the EU. One thing is certain. The next ten years or so will be filled with uncertainty and risk whichever way we vote, and this is something that I was not anticipating having to face at this stage in my life having recently retired.
You may feel differently, but for me no one wins, except for Nigel Farage and his cronies.
Frank F posted:Looking back over the last 24 hours a couple of things stand out - firstly the obvious shock and regret of some of the leave campaigners (including Boris) and secondly the extreme arrogance of Junkers 88 and some German politicians.
These people need to have their heads bashed together to come up with a proper solution. The petition that is to be put to Parliament might give an opportunity but the remaining 27 leaders must have the balls to reign in the Commission and talk to UK Government.
+1 - I also get the impression that some within the EU are looking for ways to make the divorce more painful than it needs to be (reading the press reports on JU 88 comments & some noises from France). Maybe the fact that their 2nd largest net-contributor is going - that's aprx a 10% cut - is hurting more than the politics. My advice would be to back off, calm down & read the underlying message - reform & democratise - thats all it would have taken to avoid this mess.
I hope lots of people sign The Petition. Very unlikely to change anything but maybe if we can get eighteen million signatures...��
Over a million now - I've signed.
Nick from Suffolk posted:Simon-in-Suffolk posted:Well our family was split in the end.. However from our so called youth vote - that is under 24, of those I know 4 were out (?) and 1 was in. So to talk about a 'youth vote' is plain wrong.
Excellent understanding of sampling statistics! The general trends amongst 'younger', 'older' and 'less well educated' voters were based on much larger, statistically significant, samples drawn across a wide range of areas not some family group in a little hamlet in the deepest depths of backward Suffolk!
Was it the same sampling that was used to predict the result? The same perhaps that lead to the markets surging at at 10pm on the back of a Remain win and Farage giving up based on the feedback he got from his friends in the City? The ballot is secret, no one knows how the vote went by demographics and there was significant variance by region which would have made accurate sampling a nightmare. At the end of the day it doesn't matter anyway because a vote is a vote regardless of age, IQ or any other factor.
DayJay.. well said.. and Nick feel free to call those who might not agree with you as backward.. and those I refer to are not all in Suffolk, or even the UK. I was giving a personal perspective demonstrating there is not a homogenous 'youth vote'. BTW Suffolk has one of the largest research and development parks in the UK, that in some engineering and scientific fields is a world leader and has key research partnerships around the globe... So much for backward Suffolk... perhaps more an embracing global model of what could be to come?
Kevin-W posted:True, to a degree, but it is incorrect to credit these developments entirely to the EU. We have had our own legislation in this field for some time, beginning with the Equal Pay Act 1970 and the Sex Discrimination Act, both of which were developed autonomously from the EU. I don't see why we can't continue to develop workers' rights on our own - especially if unemployment is low (although the future on that one is uncertain, given current circumstances).
Pardon me if I remain cynical (or if I'm correct) - most of the measures you mention were pushed through AFAIK by left-leaning MEPs and the like. I don't believe the EU bureacracy itself has any great love for the working man and is in fact more interested in constructing legislation and trade agreements that favour supra-national corporations.
I'm less optimistic about the likelihood of the Conservative government wanting to "continue to develop workers' rights" given their track record.
Workers’ rights enshrined in European Union law could come under attack following a Brexit vote, the Trades Union Congress has warned.
Many rights accumulated over decades, including paid annual leave, time off for antenatal appointments and fair treatment for part-time workers, are “used every day by millions of workers”, the TUC said. But if the UK votes to leave the EU, “no one can say what will happen to these rights”.
The TUC highlights concern that a Conservative government could start to roll back rights and protections endorsed by Brussels in a report - UK Employment Rights and the EU.
TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Working people have a huge stake in the referendum because workers’ rights are on the line. It’s the EU that guarantees workers their rights to paid holidays, parental leave, equal treatment for part-timers, and much more.
“These rights can’t be taken for granted. There are no guarantees that any government will keep them if the UK leaves the EU. And without the back-up of EU laws, unscrupulous employers will have free rein to cut many of their workers’ hard-won benefits and protections,” she said.
The report warns that the government has already succeeded in reducing workers’ rights, when in 2012 the qualifying period for unfair dismissal rights was increased from one to two years, along with new caps on compensation.
“And in 2013, much higher fees were imposed on workers seeking to enforce their rights at employment tribunals,” it says.
O’Grady added: “The current government has already shown their appetite to attack workers’ rights. Unions in Britain campaigned for these rights and we don’t want them put in jeopardy. The question for everyone who works for a living is this: can you risk a leap into the unknown on workplace rights?”
dayjay posted:At the end of the day it doesn't matter anyway because a vote is a vote regardless of age, IQ or any other factor.
Until the next one ...... and the youth vote in my house was 100% REMAIN
Chris Dolan posted:Over a million now - I've signed.
Why? You cannot change the rules retrospectively because you didn't like the result. Under the clearly stated rules set out, 50% + 1 would be enough.
If this was a petition to change the rules for future referendums then I would hve some sympathy for it, but in this case, definitely not.
Mike-B posted:Frank F posted:Looking back over the last 24 hours a couple of things stand out - firstly the obvious shock and regret of some of the leave campaigners (including Boris) and secondly the extreme arrogance of Junkers 88 and some German politicians.
These people need to have their heads bashed together to come up with a proper solution. The petition that is to be put to Parliament might give an opportunity but the remaining 27 leaders must have the balls to reign in the Commission and talk to UK Government.
+1 - I also get the impression that some within the EU are looking for ways to make the divorce more painful than it needs to be (reading the press reports on JU 88 comments & some noises from France). Maybe the fact that their 2nd largest net-contributor is going - that's aprx a 10% cut - is hurting more than the politics. My advice would be to back off, calm down & read the underlying message - reform & democratise - thats all it would have taken to avoid this mess.
Mike I agree, and in the near panic the EU founders are meeting so I understand to discuss amongst other things on how to deter other referenda and other countries allowing thier populations to decide. Isn't it precisely this that caused many to reject the EU?
There should be a period of calm, and then those countries with sceptical populations should be given the option to vote in or out. Then there will be a clear mandate for those that remain to complete the EU federation/ integration project.
Chris Dolan posted:Over a million now - I've signed.
Me too, i'm number 1,116,858
If there is a next one, and I doubt any amount of throwing toys from prams will ensure a next one in the immediate future, I'm pretty sure that a vote will still be a vote and that people over the age of 21 will still be allowed to vote even if they are stupid, mainly because it will be their taxes paying for it. Of course we would then have another referendum on the back of that one when the Leave supporters spat their dummy out too, or do we only rig the result for those who want the status quo?
There was a campaign where both sides made their case (both very badly) there was a democratic vote, and there was a fair result. Time to move on and make the most of what we are left with before we drift into (un)civil war, split by age and region and IQ level. Most of the political parties have actively courted the elderly over the years, even protected them during the austerity cuts, it's a bit rich now to want to exclude them from voting! Sometimes the vote goes you way,sometimes it doesn't and you just have to get on with it.
I'm dipping out of this thread now, the question has been answered, democratically by the electorate, and I'd rather argue about hifi and music.
naim_nymph posted:Chris Dolan posted:Over a million now - I've signed.
Me too, i'm number 1,116,858
It was at about 800,000 earlier this morning. Now nearly 1.2M.
Come on, 18M eashy peashy...
dayjay posted:Nick from Suffolk posted:Simon-in-Suffolk posted:Well our family was split in the end.. However from our so called youth vote - that is under 24, of those I know 4 were out (?) and 1 was in. So to talk about a 'youth vote' is plain wrong.
Excellent understanding of sampling statistics! The general trends amongst 'younger', 'older' and 'less well educated' voters were based on much larger, statistically significant, samples drawn across a wide range of areas not some family group in a little hamlet in the deepest depths of backward Suffolk!
Was it the same sampling that was used to predict the result? The same perhaps that lead to the markets surging at at 10pm on the back of a Remain win and Farage giving up based on the feedback he got from his friends in the City? The ballot is secret, no one knows how the vote went by demographics and there was significant variance by region which would have made accurate sampling a nightmare. At the end of the day it doesn't matter anyway because a vote is a vote regardless of age, IQ or any other factor.
Not sure if it was the same survey. I think and it seems plausible enough to me though - there is also a very high correlation between age distribution by area and how that area voted. Why would variance by region be an issue for age?
On your view that a vote is a vote regardless that is true in terms of the outcome. But I do feel the age pattern of voting does matter in that the change brought about this vote will in all likelihood affect younger people more. Which is the same as saying there are people voting who feel insulated from the effect of leaving.
Incidentally, my 18-24 year olds voted to remain and from a poll of their social media groups we have 24 remain and 2 for leave. I will not repeat their perception of the older generations.
dayjay posted:If there is a next one, and I doubt any amount of throwing toys from prams will ensure a next one in the immediate future, I'm pretty sure that a vote will still be a vote and that people over the age of 21 will still be allowed to vote even if they are stupid, mainly because it will be their taxes paying for it. Of course we would then have another referendum on the back of that one when the Leave supporters spat their dummy out too, or do we only rig the result for those who want the status quo?
There was a campaign where both sides made their case (both very badly) there was a democratic vote, and there was a fair result. Time to move on and make the most of what we are left with before we drift into (un)civil war, split by age and region and IQ level. Most of the political parties have actively courted the elderly over the years, even protected them during the austerity cuts, it's a bit rich now to want to exclude them from voting! Sometimes the vote goes you way,sometimes it doesn't and you just have to get on with it.
I'm dipping out of this thread now, the question has been answered, democratically by the electorate, and I'd rather argue about hifi and music.
Well said. I'm dipping out now as well - off to see Surrey v Essex at the Oval. The sun is shining, I have a new panama hat, looking forward to a few beers, chatting about sport with the boys and watching Surrey win!
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:Yes I agree, I personally am appalled by those that don't vote.. spoil your ballot card if you have to.. but not taking part in the voting process, well as you say, you have thrown away your democratic right and can't really criticise an outcome. On my travels I have come across a few elderly people who haven't voted.. They said they have had their time and left it to the younger generations... that I can just about accept.
Yes I have a niece, just turning 18, and she is appalled, sounds like your daughter, with quite a lot of rants now coming from her on Facebook.
An other interesting view would be male vs female... I suspect more women, especially younger women rather than men have been pro eu. If so it would be interesting to understand why.
But the positive, this is what engagement and democracy is about.. Perhaps for so long there has been nothing for younger voters to get passionate about.. And now there is. There is a lot to play for now and it would be great to see some of this younger passion translated in to creating and supporting new progressive outward facing policies and to set an example. Whether pro or against, Brexit for many has been about taking control.. So let's do so and partipate rather than merely follow the apathetic status quo eroding our democratic culture. I hope this passion is not merely a populist post election fad that will dissipate when people return to their normal lives....
Perhaps we need to look at why people do not vote. I am not saying it is right but I am afraid my youngsters are getting less engaged:
Vote Lib Dem on single issue (Student fees) and ...
Voted in last general election to no effect.
Voted to remain.
It might help to look at the process. Why is there no online option? The internet has been with us for a fair while now and I am not sure why this has not happened.
dayjay posted:If there is a next one, and I doubt any amount of throwing toys from prams will ensure a next one in the immediate future, I'm pretty sure that a vote will still be a vote and that people over the age of 21 will still be allowed to vote even if they are stupid, mainly because it will be their taxes paying for it. Of course we would then have another referendum on the back of that one when the Leave supporters spat their dummy out too, or do we only rig the result for those who want the status quo?
There was a campaign where both sides made their case (both very badly) there was a democratic vote, and there was a fair result. Time to move on and make the most of what we are left with before we drift into (un)civil war, split by age and region and IQ level. Most of the political parties have actively courted the elderly over the years, even protected them during the austerity cuts, it's a bit rich now to want to exclude them from voting! Sometimes the vote goes you way,sometimes it doesn't and you just have to get on with it.
I'm dipping out of this thread now, the question has been answered, democratically by the electorate, and I'd rather argue about hifi and music.
I am not sure this is helping the inter-generation issue: 'Most of the political parties have actively courted the elderly over the years, even protected them during the austerity cuts'.
Perhaps in the next round of cuts, dare I say it, the current pensions should be looked at (tripe lock/ means testing).
An interesting article to read: "Britain's Democratic Failure" by Professor Kenneth Rogoff:
Frank F posted:I just read that a guy from Barnsley voted "leave" to stop muslims coming to UK. He and many others do not realise that in or out makes no difference to immigration from non-EU Countries so maybe the referendum was deeply flawed??
The pity is that it is politically correct to rubbish Latvians but not politically correct to rubbish Asians and Africans??
FF
The expectation of this 'swing' group might not be met which may lead to disappointment. I do sessions at Citizens Advice and have seen two or three people recently who are worried about being deported. They all work in the health care sector.
I am tempted to say that if invited onto a train by a gentleman going by the name Farage do not get on.
I voted to remain, I am working class and I am uneducated well I left formal education at 16 but what I am starting to find exceptionally offensive is that many people that voted to remain some on this forum are believing and actually saying out loud that it was the uneducated (stupid) working classes that voted to leave. NOT ALL WORKING CLASS PEOPLE ARE UNEDUCATED, a degree or some A levels does not make you educated (not stupid) there are some exceptionally stupid people out there who are educated and have degrees. Working class people voted to leave because they are angry at the continued divisions in this country between themselves and the rich and also because they were sold and believed the lie that immigration is to blame not because they are uneducated and stupid.
Haim Ronen posted:An interesting article to read: "Britain's Democratic Failure" by Professor Kenneth Rogoff:
I agree with the sentiment,
and one off the readers comments is interesting:
"First of all, the British Parliament could (can) ignore the referendum"
Perhaps, Cameron should have done this due to only 36% of eligible voters backing Brexit.
Cameron, instead of resigning, could stay put to defend the rights of the majority who have not voted for it.