Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Hmack posted:

The people I feel most sorry for are those who are in the position, or will be in the position over the next 2 or 3 years of having to buy annuities when they retire. I feel very fortunate that I am not in that position.

Unfortunately for them, they will be well and truly screwed. It's not just the young who will suffer!

Thankfully buying an annuity is not the only option these days when you retire. I will be looking at my options in 4years!

Bruce

Peter Dinh posted:

So many British voters were (and still are) taken in by the false info spread  by the Brexit leaders, now the genie is out of the bottle.

Someone needs to catch the genie, and make three good wishes... (Can a selfless leader with real negotiating skills please miraculously appear to take the country forward; can that leader go and negotiate terms with The rest of teh EU; Following that, can that person initiate a referendum on whether to accept said new terms and not leave EU.)

David Hendon posted:

There's an emerging view (I mean a properly-argued legal view) that constitutionally the Government itself can't trigger Article 50 and that Parliament has to do that.  No doubt it will be discussed endlessly on this evening's news programmes.  I must say that I doubt that a Bill to enable the triggering of Article 50 would get through Parliament at the moment. I'm not sure where this is all going, but it feels very bad, whichever scenario one thinks about.

If Scotland challenges the referendum, the decision goes straight back to Parliament, which has sovereignty. Is it likely that the elected representatives would let the exit vote go through ?

Innocent Bystander posted:

...can that leader go and negotiate terms with The rest of teh EU; Following that, can that person initiate a referendum on whether to accept said new terms and not leave EU.

This is not possible. There will be no discussions, formal or informal, until the UK triggers Article 50 to leave. Either a country wants to leave or it doesn't, there is no in between. And rightly so.

By the looks of it there are only four options going forward: 1) Build a case for a second referendum to gauge an accurate percentage of the British public's wish to leave the EU. 2) Not ratify the referendum's outcome in parliament, i.e. ignore it. 3) For Scotland to veto the UK's decision to leave, if this is legally possible. 4) Leave the EU. 

totemphile posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

...can that leader go and negotiate terms with The rest of teh EU; Following that, can that person initiate a referendum on whether to accept said new terms and not leave EU.

This is not possible. There will be no discussions, formal or informal, until the UK triggers Article 50 to leave. Either a country wants to leave or it doesn't, there is no in between.

No that's not quite right. Of course it is completely possible for there to be informal talks at anytime about anything.

But you may well be right that the other EU members choose not to negotiate with the UK before Article 50 is triggered or at least maintain that position for a while. Basically no-one with any political authority anywhere (in UK or the rest of the EU) thought the leave campaign would actually win and now they are all trying to work out what on earth to do next (Johnson and Gove more than most I suspect).

best

David

totemphile posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

...can that leader go and negotiate terms with The rest of teh EU; Following that, can that person initiate a referendum on whether to accept said new terms and not leave EU.

This is not possible. There will be no discussions, formal or informal, until the UK triggers Article 50 to leave. Either a country wants to leave or it doesn't, there is no in between. And rightly so.

By the looks of it there are only four options going forward: 1) Build a case for a second referendum to gauge an accurate percentage of the British public's wish to leave the EU. 2) Not ratify the referendum's outcome in parliament, i.e. ignore it. 3) For Scotland to veto the UK's decision to leave, if this is legally possible. 4) Leave the EU. 

 

There is a fifth option. Do a bit of informal negotiating, "discover" the truth that the leave campaign lied about everything and what they promised is udeliverable and then call a General Election with leaving/staying in the EU at the heart of it.

best

David

David Hendon posted:

totemphile posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

...can that leader go and negotiate terms with The rest of teh EU; Following that, can that person initiate a referendum on whether to accept said new terms and not leave EU.

This is not possible. There will be no discussions, formal or informal, until the UK triggers Article 50 to leave. Either a country wants to leave or it doesn't, there is no in between.

No that's not quite right. Of course it is completely possible for there to be informal talks at anytime about anything.

But you may well be right that the other EU members choose not to negotiate with the UK before Article 50 is triggered or at least maintain that position for a while. Basically no-one with any political authority anywhere (in UK or the rest of the EU) thought the leave campaign would actually win and now they are all trying to work out what on earth to do next (Johnson and Gove more than most I suspect).

best

David

I would be very surprised, if it happened. The EU can't allow itself to set a precedent on this issue. Otherwise, more countries will use a referendum to hold the EU to ransom. Don't get me wrong but the UK got itself into this mess and it is up to those elected to sort it out now. It's not going to be easy but there are ways. Parliament could simply refuse to ratify the result. Or you could hold a second referendum, there are good reasons for it. Using your line of argument this is completely possible. Plus, the likelihood of one of them happening is greater too IMHO. 

tories have won elections with less than 50% of the vote.  we voted out by more than that. stop  crying .or do you want  to count votes

Yes well you may be right Totemphile. None of us know.  Cameron was a total idiot to put the UK in this position in the first place.

best

David

audio1946 posted:

tories have won elections with less than 50% of the vote.  we voted out by more than that. stop  crying .or do you want  to count votes

But what you wanted isn't what you will get because the leave campaign was all built on lies.  That's why it is interesting (whichever side you were on) to think ahead to how whoever negotiates with the EU handles the basic truths that immigration won't fall unless we accept the economic impact through having no access to the EU market and there will be less money to spend on the NHS, not more, because nothing like £350M a week was ever sent to the EU and we won't have the tax income to fund what is spent on the NHS at the moment. This will become apparent when the new Chancellor of the Exchequer has his budget in the autumn, if not before.

best

David

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Hmack posted:

The people I feel most sorry for are those who are in the position, or will be in the position over the next 2 or 3 years of having to buy annuities when they retire. I feel very fortunate that I am not in that position.

Unfortunately for them, they will be well and truly screwed. It's not just the young who will suffer!

Thankfully buying an annuity is not the only option these days when you retire. I will be looking at my options in 4years!

Bruce

Yes indeed.

The one truly good thing that Osborne has done in his years in office.

Unfortunately, many people will not get the advice that they need to explore the avenues available to them. Again a case of, the rich will not suffer, but the less well off probably will.  

totemphile posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

...can that leader go and negotiate terms with The rest of teh EU; Following that, can that person initiate a referendum on whether to accept said new terms and not leave EU.

This is not possible. There will be no discussions, formal or informal, until the UK triggers Article 50 to leave. Either a country wants to leave or it doesn't, there is no in between. And rightly so.

By the looks of it there are only four options going forward: 1) Build a case for a second referendum to gauge an accurate percentage of the British public's wish to leave the EU. 2) Not ratify the referendum's outcome in parliament, i.e. ignore it. 3) For Scotland to veto the UK's decision to leave, if this is legally possible. 4) Leave the EU. 

 

Actually, all there has been at the moment, as far as EU is concerned, is UK had an INTERNAL reverednum in which a majority of those voting said they wanted to leave. Until UK gov (or Parliament if that is correct) goes to Brussels and says UK wants to leave, itbis actually nothing to do with EU.

At the same time, EU members are aware of the result, and from various accounts there is a level of concern over what will happen to the EU if/when UK leaves. That makes it ripe for the British PM (if only there was one) to see if s/he can get some real concessions should parliament decide eithervto ignore the result (for whatever justification - which is up tomthem notbEU).

audio1946 posted:

tories have won elections with less than 50% of the vote.  we voted out by more than that. stop  crying .or do you want  to count votes

This post is indicative of why I have an issue.

It really is not just a general election. There won't be another chance in five years time.

The leave campaign misled and remain told lies. The lies were easy to dismiss but the misleading was persuasive.

It's fine if you are happy with the result. But please tell me what you think that Europe might be like in ten years time (include the UK if you want) and how this can possibly be better than if the UK stays.

I asked my parents at the weekend how they voted and they said "Remain, to give young people a future".

(I have no idea what the last bit about wanting to count votes might be about)

Your politicians already have, doesn't instil much confidence.

Ian Dury saw it coming with 'Reasons to be Cheerful Part 3'.

Any relevance to the 'B' side being 'Common(s) as Muck'?

John.

Bananahead posted:

audio1946 posted:

tories have won elections with less than 50% of the vote.  we voted out by more than that. stop  crying .or do you want  to count votes

This post is indicative of why I have an issue.

It really is not just a general election. There won't be another chance in five years time.

The leave campaign misled and remain told lies. The lies were easy to dismiss but the misleading was persuasive.

It's fine if you are happy with the result. But please tell me what you think that Europe might be like in ten years time (include the UK if you want) and how this can possibly be better than if the UK stays.

 

...and half the lies they told us aren't even true.

Actually, this is a first for me; agreeing with things Bananahead is saying, who'd of thought that would ever happen?

Debs

David Hendon posted:

Yes well you may be right Totemphile. None of us know.  Cameron was a total idiot to put the UK in this position in the first place.

best

David

I wouldn't go that far. There are good arguments for putting the question of wether a country wants to be part of the EU or not up for a referendum. I think the real problem has been the lacklustre campaign of the pro EU section, focusing too much on the dangers of leaving, rather than outlining what advantages being part of the EU really provides. That and debunking the lies told by the leave campaign should have been their strategy. It's hard to be a credible pro European though, if most of your time was spent slagging off the EU in the first place. As was the case with David Cameron for much of the process. The fact that he felt compelled to do so says a lot about the perception of the EU within UK society, though . Truth be told, the process of communicating the advantages of EU membership to the country as a whole should have begun decades ago. 

naim_nymph posted:

Bananahead posted:

audio1946 posted:

tories have won elections with less than 50% of the vote.  we voted out by more than that. stop  crying .or do you want  to count votes

This post is indicative of why I have an issue.

It really is not just a general election. There won't be another chance in five years time.

The leave campaign misled and remain told lies. The lies were easy to dismiss but the misleading was persuasive.

It's fine if you are happy with the result. But please tell me what you think that Europe might be like in ten years time (include the UK if you want) and how this can possibly be better than if the UK stays.

 

 

...and half the lies they told us aren't even true.

Actually, this is a first for me; agreeing with things Bananahead is saying, who'd of thought that would ever happen?

Debs

I spent an afternoon on a chat channel at work trying to explain what the "half the lies" thing meant.

( I think we agree on more things than you realise. Just not everything  

totemphile posted:

Truth be told, the process of communicating the advantages of EU membership to the country as a whole should have begun decades ago. 

The following is slightly satirical and relies on generalisations...

Ironically the last time many of the people who voted Leave felt listened to and valued in society was in the mid-80s.  Which is where the value of the pound has returned to today!

Innocent Bystander posted:

 ...EU members are aware of the result, and from various accounts there is a level of concern over what will happen to the EU if/when UK leaves. That makes it ripe for the British PM (if only there was one) to see if s/he can get some real concessions should parliament decide eithervto ignore the result (for whatever justification - which is up tomthem notbEU).

Why should there be more concessions? It is not a cherry picking union. If the UK had wanted more changes, there was the option to work towards them from within the EU. Instead a majority of voters chose to leave. There won't be any further discussions, neither should there be. The EU cannot allow one member state to hold the entire Union to ransom just because it doesn't get everything it wants. No one does. The whole EU is based on compromises, each member sate has to compromise for the good of the union. Egotistical and selfish single mindedness have no place in it, even though there is plenty of it going around.

In any case it is not about further concessions. A lack of concessions weren't even the reason why people voted leave. It was all to do with the current situation in the UK, people being left behind, being afraid of migration, afraid of the consequences of globalisation and the changes this has brought to their lives, to every country across the world, etc. Very little of all of this is EU related. Hardly any of these issues will be sorted out be leaving the EU. 

On a more serious note, I have just noticed that S&P has just downgraded the UK economy rating from AAA to AA. Other credit ratings agencies such as Moodys have already reduced their rating of the UK economy.

This may not mean a lot to some people, but the downgrading is very bad news indeed for the prospect of investment in UK companies and shares by the major fund investors both here and abroad.  

Not good news! It will be extremely difficult to regain our Triple A rating.

eazyryder posted:

totemphile posted:

Your politicians already have, doesn't instil much confidence.

Well you shouldn't be to concerned as it doesn't appear like you live in the UK and it is still very early days, far to early to be predicting imminent doom.

Well, I am concerned, for two reasons: First, I live in the EU and I don't think it's good for the EU, if the UK left. Second, I used to live in the UK for nine years and do care for your country. I think the people have been short changed and deserve better. Unfortunately, I fail to see how leaving the EU will improve the lives of most people. But you're right, it's early days and my hope is that somehow this lunacy will end well, i.e. the UK will stay. I am sure you disagree.

Eloise posted:

totemphile posted:

Truth be told, the process of communicating the advantages of EU membership to the country as a whole should have begun decades ago. 

The following is slightly satirical and relies on generalisations...

Ironically the last time many of the people who voted Leave felt listened to and valued in society was in the mid-80s.  Which is where the value of the pound has returned to today!

Hmmm, what does this tell us?

eazyryder posted:

I look forward to the future so I can look back on all these "optimistic" views with a big smile on my face.

I have full confidence in MY countrys decision and have no doubt we shall prevail.

 

Good luck with that!

After tonight's shock result, which we really didn't expect, a petition has been set up to force the authorities to replay the Iceland game because we are not happy with the result and want to stay in Europe where we belong. Whilst this may seem unsporting I'm sure you will agree that if we had known we might lose we would have played a completely different team, excluding Man United players, and we would have converted all of our chances which would have lead to us winning 5 -2.  I'm sure I can count on you to sign because, after all, it's no more than we are entitled to.