Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

eazyryder posted:

I look forward to the future so I can look back on all these "optimistic" views with a big smile on my face.

I have full confidence in MY countrys decision and have no doubt we shall prevail.

i'm sure the UK will come through this as a financially and economically strong nation.  However it will take between 2 and upto 10 years maybe even longer. 

My fear though isn't that the UK can't come through this, my fear is that this will lead to the breakup of the UK and the net result will be a similar relationship with the EU except without any veto or voting rights at all.  Already the vision BoJo is presenting sounds like this.  Those who represent the majority who voted leave (the low paid, low skilled, working class) will still be facing uncertainty day to day, unable to feed their families and be wondering what happened to the dream of utopia.  Immigration will still be on the rise as the price of access to the free market is and always will be free movement of people.

totemphile posted:

Well, I am concerned, for two reasons: First, I live in the EU and I don't think it's good for the EU, if the UK left. Second, I used to live in the UK for nine years and do care for your country. I think the people have been short changed and deserve better. Unfortunately, I fail to see how leaving the EU will improve the lives of most people. But you're right, it's early days and my hope is that somehow this lunacy will end well, i.e. the UK will stay. I am sure you disagree.

I think your statement which I have emboldened sums up my feelings of dispair.  People have been sold a dream with no basis in reality and no plan exists how it might even be achieved.

dayjay posted:

After tonight's shock result, which we really didn't expect, a petition has been set up to force the authorities to replay the Iceland game because we are not happy with the result and want to stay in Europe where we belong. Whilst this may seem unsporting I'm sure you will agree that if we had known we might lose we would have played a completely different team, excluding Man United players, and we would have converted all of our chances which would have lead to us winning 5 -2.  I'm sure I can count on you to sign because, after all, it's no more than we are entitled to. 

Again, you really miss the point.

The Euros come around every 2 years, and so England will potentially have another chance to beat Iceland 2 years down the line.

Now, if this result had meant that England would never again get to participate in the Euros, I might have agreed with your sentiment.

Mind you, Iceland are not in the EU. Maybe we could set up an alliance with them and ask them to represent us in the next World Cup.    

I feel that we may look back and see that the forecasts of economic doom have been over-blown (although I see zero upside either). For me, the real tragedy is the way that the referendum outcome has been seized upon by the small-minded bigots to justify their seething hatred towards people "not like us". One of the finest and most important things that reasonable people can do in the face of the appalling and idiotic referendum result, is to stand up to this hatred. Don't stand idly by while people are being abused.

Hmack posted:

dayjay posted:

After tonight's shock result, which we really didn't expect, a petition has been set up to force the authorities to replay the Iceland game because we are not happy with the result and want to stay in Europe where we belong. Whilst this may seem unsporting I'm sure you will agree that if we had known we might lose we would have played a completely different team, excluding Man United players, and we would have converted all of our chances which would have lead to us winning 5 -2.  I'm sure I can count on you to sign because, after all, it's no more than we are entitled to. 

Again, you really miss the point.

The Euros come around every 2 years, and so England will potentially have another chance to beat Iceland 2 years down the line.

Now, if this result had meant that England would never again get to participate in the Euros, I might have agreed with your sentiment.

Mind you, Iceland are not in the EU. Maybe we could set up an alliance with them and ask them to represent us in the next World Cup.    

If you genuinely believe that if we were out of the Euros for ever the Iceland game should be replayed I am shocked because I meant it as a joke, even if it was one that echoed some of the ranting on here recently 

J.N. posted:

Ian Dury saw it coming with 'Reasons to be Cheerful Part 3'.

Any relevance to the 'B' side being 'Common(s) as Muck'?

John.

Maybe Monty Python's song at the end of Life of Brian would be apt: 'Always Look On The Bright Side of Life', whilst being crucified. 

totemphile posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

 ...EU members are aware of the result, and from various accounts there is a level of concern over what will happen to the EU if/when UK leaves. That makes it ripe for the British PM (if only there was one) to see if s/he can get some real concessions should parliament decide eithervto ignore the result (for whatever justification - which is up tomthem notbEU).

Why should there be more concessions? It is not a cherry picking union. If the UK had wanted more changes, there was the option to work towards them from within the EU. Instead a majority of voters chose to leave. There won't be any further discussions, neither should there be. The EU cannot allow one member state to hold the entire Union to ransom just because it doesn't get everything it wants. No one does. The whole EU is based on compromises, each member sate has to compromise for the good of the union. Egotistical and selfish single mindedness have no place in it, even though there is plenty of it going around.

In any case it is not about further concessions. A lack of concessions weren't even the reason why people voted leave. It was all to do with the current situation in the UK, people being left behind, being afraid of migration, afraid of the consequences of globalisation and the changes this has brought to their lives, to every country across the world, etc. Very little of all of this is EU related. Hardly any of these issues will be sorted out be leaving the EU. 

 

I didn't suggest the EU owes us anything - however, IF it is true that they really don't want UK to leave (they being the bulk of the EU, not the President/commission), they might just decide that conceding all the things Cameron asked for, in full, may be worth it. And part of Cameron's demands, IIRC, included more control over immigration. 

Despite your assertion, none of us actually know the reasons for people voting leave, othervthan anyone who has voted themselves, or has the benefit of others' explanations. I personally believe - but don't know for certain if I am right - that the posturing about immigration before the vote got completely misunderstood with some esctors of the population, stirring up racist feelings that are nothing to do with EU immigrants. SOme of the reported hate mail since Friday aimed at non-EU immigrants is evidence of saome of the nastier things that resulted. I also believe, based on personal discussions withn a few people since, that a significant proportion may have been protest votes, not really wanting - or expecting - the result that came (I've now discussed with 6 people who voted against. One was because they don't like the fact of an EU project aiming at shifting more and more sovereignity to Brussels. One was to give UK control of its social security system. The remainder - 2/3rds - were protest votes to make a point, either about the EU's increasing power, or the lack of proper leadership and negotiating ability. - all fully expecteda strong majority wanting to stay, and had a real shock on Friday. Not a statistically valid sample, but enough to raise concern

So did I.

Obviously, neither of us is cut out to be a comedian

By the way, as someone who is used to supporting a rather unsuccessful International football team, I would normally never make a joke about another person's team at a time like this.

The only comment I will make is that Iceland individually and as a team played at the top of their game, England both individually and as a team very significantly underperformed on the night. It's as simple as that, and we shouldn't begrudge Iceland their moment of glory.

It's unfortunate for England, because I thought that on this occasion they had a mix of experienced and young players that could really do something special at this tournament.

I would also comment on the very gracious manner of Hodgson's resignation. He comes across as a gentleman, and I really do feel sorry for him.    

England  football  team out of Europe they dd this without a referendum 

Hmack posted:

dayjay posted:

Hmack posted:

dayjay posted:

After tonight's shock result, which we really didn't expect, a petition has been set up to force the authorities to replay the Iceland game because we are not happy with the result and want to stay in Europe where we belong. Whilst this may seem unsporting I'm sure you will agree that if we had known we might lose we would have played a completely different team, excluding Man United players, and we would have converted all of our chances which would have lead to us winning 5 -2.  I'm sure I can count on you to sign because, after all, it's no more than we are entitled to. 

Again, you really miss the point.

The Euros come around every 2 years, and so England will potentially have another chance to beat Iceland 2 years down the line.

Now, if this result had meant that England would never again get to participate in the Euros, I might have agreed with your sentiment.

Mind you, Iceland are not in the EU. Maybe we could set up an alliance with them and ask them to represent us in the next World Cup.    

If you genuinely believe that if we were out of the Euros for ever the Iceland game should be replayed I am shocked because I meant it as a joke, even if it was one that echoed some of the ranting on here recently 

So did I.

Obviously, neither of us is cut out to be a comedian

By the way, as someone who is used to supporting a rather unsuccessful International football team, I would normally never make a joke about another person's team at a time like this.

The only comment I will make is that Iceland individually and as a team played at the top of their game, England both individually and as a team very significantly underperformed on the night. It's as simple as that, and we shouldn't begrudge Iceland their moment of glory.

It's unfortunate for England, because I thought that on this occasion they had a mix of experienced and young players that could really do something special at this tournament.

I would also comment on the very gracious manner of Hodgson's resignation. He comes across as a gentleman, and I really do feel sorry for him.    

And on that we can agree.  I saw a post earlier that said there are more people named Smith in the UK than there are people in Iceland which puts into context their achievement.  I do feel a little sorry for Roy but his team did seem to be playing without much of a plan or strategy whcih didn't help, but fair play he stepped down with honour.  Anyway, apologies for dragging the thread away from its depressing course. 

George Osborne included the following in his statement this morning.

As I said before the referendum, this will have an impact on the economy and the public finances – and there will need to be action to address that.

Given the delay in triggering Article 50 and the Prime Minister’s decision to hand over to a successor, it is sensible that decisions on what that action should consist of should wait for the OBR to assess the economy in the autumn, and for the new Prime Minister to be in place.

He was explaining why he wouldn't be implementing the promised immediate austerity budget, but, if three or four months down the line, the economy goes into freefall and the OBR predict a catastrophic outluck for the country, (something like, 12 months deep recession with a further three years to come out of it) will the new prime minister really pull the trigger.

fatcat posted:

George Osborne included the following in his statement this morning.

Yeah but hopefully BoJo will appoint someone who actually knows something about economics...

Pcd posted:

England  football  team out of Europe they dd this without a referendum 

If Roy Hodgson had put 11 East Europeans in the England team they'd probably go on to win the cup.

Eazyryder, my sentiments excactly the British public have voted and the descision to leave has been made.

eazyryder posted:

The people of the UK have spoken and that has meant leaving the EU .....

This is a common misapprehension. The Referendum was advisory so the decision has not yet been made and we are as much in the EU today as we ever were. The doom and gloom is being spoken by international financial markets not by us remainers. There is a lot of water to go under various bridges yet. 

The referendum is as advisory as any election is in the UK. In a democratic system you follow the voting outcome. In a dictatorship you can use voting as a glorified opinion poll. As far as I am aware the UK and the EU don't support dictatorships.

But yes until the EU process of Article 50 is  followed through, the UK remains technically within the EU.

This is not entirely true, both Greece and Ireland have ignored referenda in the recent past, nothing to do with dictatorship. A quick search on the Internet will bring up plenty of background. The below has been taken from The Independent.

"There are a number of examples of referendums in Europe which have been ignored by the government of the day.

The most recent and striking example was in July last year when the Greek people voted by about 61 per cent to 39 per cent to reject harsh austerity policies sought by the EU and other global institutions in exchange for a multi-billion-pound bailout. 

Despite the vote, the left-wing government in Athens, fearing the country’s banks and economy would collapse, agreed shortly afterwards to even tougher austerity measures.

In 2008, Ireland threw the EU into chaos when it became the only country to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – and voters rejected it by a majority of 53 per cent. In order for the treaty to become law, it had to be ratified by all member states.

Amid concern that attempts to streamline and formalise the workings of the EU were being held up by one relatively small member state, Irish and EU politicians urged people to think again. A new referendum was held in 2009 and this time 67 per cent of voters backed the treaty. 

The Lisbon Treaty was designed as a replacement for the ‘Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe’ or TCE, which was rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands in 2005.

Some view the Lisbon Treaty as much the same kind of deal as the TCE, making it arguable that the French and Dutch governments ignored their TCE referendums."

Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/n...rlands-a7105261.html

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

The referendum is as advisory as any election is in the UK. In a democratic system you follow the voting outcome. In a dictatorship you can use voting as a glorified opinion poll. As far as I am aware the UK and the EU don't support dictatorships.

 

This is part of the misapprehension because this was an "advisory" referendum and not a "binary" referendum as indicated for example by the question which was fixed in the EU Referendum Act 2015.  "Should the UK....."

Parliament will have to take the decision to actually follow the advice and I'm not sure when it might do that, except not anytime soon.

best

David

totemphile posted:

This is not entirely true, both Greece and Ireland have ignored referenda in the recent past, nothing to do with dictatorship. A quick search on the Internet will bring up plenty of background. The below has been taken from The Independent.

"There are a number of examples of referendums in Europe which have been ignored by the government of the day.

The most recent and striking example was in July last year when the Greek people voted by about 61 per cent to 39 per cent to reject harsh austerity policies sought by the EU and other global institutions in exchange for a multi-billion-pound bailout. 

Despite the vote, the left-wing government in Athens, fearing the country’s banks and economy would collapse, agreed shortly afterwards to even tougher austerity measures.

In 2008, Ireland threw the EU into chaos when it became the only country to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – and voters rejected it by a majority of 53 per cent. In order for the treaty to become law, it had to be ratified by all member states.

Amid concern that attempts to streamline and formalise the workings of the EU were being held up by one relatively small member state, Irish and EU politicians urged people to think again. A new referendum was held in 2009 and this time 67 per cent of voters backed the treaty. 

The Lisbon Treaty was designed as a replacement for the ‘Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe’ or TCE, which was rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands in 2005.

Some view the Lisbon Treaty as much the same kind of deal as the TCE, making it arguable that the French and Dutch governments ignored their TCE referendums."

Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/n...rlands-a7105261.html

 

Fair enough.. Perhaps I should have limited my response to the UK democracy rather than the EU examples you mention that seem to suggest democracy as I agree with it....

However... Reading the editorial ramblings like you do when on holiday... One idea does come to mind.. It appears most likely the structures of a post EU UK and its relationship with the remaining EU will need ideally some sort of electoral support. Once that support is electorally endorsed then the article 50 could be instigated. Now it is suggested this post EU structure should be part of a political manifesto for the Tory party for the 2020 general election. Now I could see an alternate party (unlikely Labour , but possibly a resurgent Lib Dem) campaigning on a manifesto of not activating Article 50.. Thereby electorally navigating a pro EU path for the UK. To me this could be valid as the alternate  post EU manifestos would have been electorally rejected in that scenario.  It does feel unlikely but nothing would suprise me..

Simon

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

The referendum is as advisory as any election is in the UK. In a democratic system

Thats the fallacy everyone has.  We (like almost everyone else) are NOT a democracy.  We are a representative democracy.  That is we elect representatives to act for us in parliament.  In the UK; sovereign power rests with "The Queen in Parliament" which means nothing can happen constitutionally except with the agreement of parliament.  

There is no constitutional convention covering referendums - the only requirement for a referendum is from the European Union Act of 2011 act which stated that any change in the powers of the EU ... there were no change in the powers of the EU so no referendum was necessary.  It can even be argued that at the conclusion of talks there MUST be a second referendum under the terms of the 2011 act.

So, by their own rules / treaty; Article 50 cannot be invoked unless / until parliament vote to allow it; as Clause 1 of Article 50 states "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements." and the constitutional requirement of the United Kingdom is that parliament have to agree.

eazyryder posted:

Life goes on people, our country wont fail us.

Presumably - a third as likely of success as three, reassuringly symbolic, lions might be?

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

totemphile posted:

This is not entirely true, both Greece and Ireland have ignored referenda in the recent past, nothing to do with dictatorship. A quick search on the Internet will bring up plenty of background. The below has been taken from The Independent.

"There are a number of examples of referendums in Europe which have been ignored by the government of the day.

The most recent and striking example was in July last year when the Greek people voted by about 61 per cent to 39 per cent to reject harsh austerity policies sought by the EU and other global institutions in exchange for a multi-billion-pound bailout. 

Despite the vote, the left-wing government in Athens, fearing the country’s banks and economy would collapse, agreed shortly afterwards to even tougher austerity measures.

In 2008, Ireland threw the EU into chaos when it became the only country to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – and voters rejected it by a majority of 53 per cent. In order for the treaty to become law, it had to be ratified by all member states.

Amid concern that attempts to streamline and formalise the workings of the EU were being held up by one relatively small member state, Irish and EU politicians urged people to think again. A new referendum was held in 2009 and this time 67 per cent of voters backed the treaty. 

The Lisbon Treaty was designed as a replacement for the ‘Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe’ or TCE, which was rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands in 2005.

Some view the Lisbon Treaty as much the same kind of deal as the TCE, making it arguable that the French and Dutch governments ignored their TCE referendums."

Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/n...rlands-a7105261.html

 

Fair enough.. Perhaps I should have limited my response to the UK democracy rather than the EU examples you mention that seem to suggest democracy as I agree with it....

However... Reading the editorial ramblings like you do when on holiday... One idea does come to mind.. It appears most likely the structures of a post EU UK and its relationship with the remaining EU will need ideally some sort of electoral support. Once that support is electorally endorsed then the article 50 could be instigated. Now it is suggested this post EU structure should be part of a political manifesto for the Tory party for the 2020 general election. Now I could see an alternate party (unlikely Labour , but possibly a resurgent Lib Dem) campaigning on a manifesto of not activating Article 50.. Thereby electorally navigating a pro EU path for the UK. To me this could be valid as the alternate  post EU manifestos would have been electorally rejected in that scenario.  It does feel unlikely but nothing would suprise me..

Simon

Now I do agree with your last paragraph which is like an expanded version of my fifth option in an earlier post yesterday evening. Enjoy your (presumably Naimless) holiday anyway!

best

David

Cheers David, yes totally Naimless.. perhaps things have got ever so slightly more expensive in the last few days.. but nothing to grumble about 

Frank F posted:

Now here is one for the Human Rights Lawyers.  

My Citizenship of the EU is likely to be lost when BREXIT happens because the EU/EC will dictate that.  I voted Remain and will potentially loose health benefits because I am resident abroad for much of the time (the weather suits my bones and clothes), my Human Rights are therefore likely to be reduced.  Surely a clever HR Lawyer could take the EU/EC to the European Court of Human Rights because this affects hundreds of thousands of people, not just from GB but from other states?

Worth a punt and more lucrative that challenging a Romanians angst at having to go to a Greek Jail.

 

FF

Why would you need health care in a EU country when you're going to lose the right of residence anyway?

jfritzen posted:

Why would you need health care in a EU country when you're going to lose the right of residence anyway?

Because BoJo say we will still be able to live and work in the EU ... its just not everyone from the EU will be able to live and work here.  Simples!