Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Posted by: Don Atkinson on 09 February 2016

Media interest seems to be focused on the trivial matter of "in-work benefits" to migrant workers from Europe.

Very little informed discussion of the benefits and consequences of us remaining part of Europe v the benefits and consequences of us leaving.

Or am I just not tuning into the appropriate TV channel or overlooking some "White Paper" that is on sale in WH Smith ?

Posted on: 02 July 2016 by Allante93
Allante93 posted:

No, just a poll, where the numbers reflect the less educated tend to vote a certain way, that's all!

""How are polls conducted?

Typically, the customer contacts the polling organization and places an order for a poll, specifying what questions are to be asked, when the poll will be conducted, how many people will be interviewed, and how the results will be presented. The pollster then hires a call center to call the agreed upon number of people and, ask them the questions. Some call centers use computers to make the calls and ask the questions, with the respondent keying in the answers. Usually, the interview begins with easy questions to assure the respondent that he or she is not going to be embarrassed. For example: "I am going to read you the names of some well-known political figures. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable, neutral, or unfavorable opinion of that person." Then the names of well-known figures such as Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, etc. are read. The answers are typed into a computer as they are received. When each interviewer has the requisite number of valid interviews, he or she transmits the results to the pollster. The pollster then weights the various demographic categories to make sure there are enough men, enough retirees, enough Democrats, enough Catholics, enough college graduates, and so on. The pollster prepares a final report, breaking down the results by age, gender, income, education, political party, and other ways. The more people called, the more accurate the poll, but the more expensive it is. For state polls, 500-1000 valid interviews are typical (but it may require calling 10 times these numbers to get 500-1000 valid interviews).""

Doesn't mean it's accurate, but again, just a poll!

In the US, Blacks & Mexicans tend to vote for the Democratic party, which is reflected in the polls.

Hence, Obama done very well with Minorities, but what got him elected for two terms, was the well educated, and a substantial % of the White vote!

On the other hand Trump doesn't poll well, with Blacks, Mexicans, or Women, which means he must capture a large percentage of the White vote.

Polling suggest that he does well, with the uneducated white male, which would be necessary for him to defeat Hillary Clinton.

 Polling that's all!

Allante93!

 

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by Don Atkinson

If it's taken c.10 years for Chilcot to be in a position to state that Blair was reckless in reaching his decision to go to war in Iraq, and that he failed to ensure the matter was properly considered in Cabinet nor was the evidence of experts effectively challenged, how long will it be before Chilcot is invited to investigate the decision of any future Prime Minister to invoke (or otherwise) Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty unless the PM, Cabinet and Parliamentproperly consider any decision to leave the EU, taking into account, amongst other things, the result of the 23rd June referendum ?

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by Harry

My money is on May agreeing with the EU to invent a construct (mostly of words) which allows us to stay in the EU after negotiating a significant victory and making them back down after seeing the errors of their ways. Their stance will have appeared to change to an extent that exit is no longer relevant or necessary.  Between now and then, internal Tory party hair pulling and in fighting will have wrecked the economy and presented them and their backers with a fire sale. Everyone's a winner. Well anyone important. Not the rest of us plebs. And 15% corporation tax too. Oh jolly yummy. We will be deafened by the sound of fingers being licked clean. No, on second thought, make that arms being licked up to the elbow.

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by Don Atkinson

The prospect of the UK having a second female PM is intriguing me.

Especially since the more likely candidate IMHO is May, following on from Maggie !!

This would mean we will have had Maggie May.

................oh! dirty Maggie May they have taken her away.....................

Beatles anybody ?? tremendous fore-sight, if you ask me

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by TOBYJUG
Don Atkinson posted:

If it's taken c.10 years for Chilcot to be in a position to state that Blair was reckless in reaching his decision to go to war in Iraq, and that he failed to ensure the matter was properly considered in Cabinet nor was the evidence of experts effectively challenged, how long will it be before Chilcot is invited to investigate the decision of any future Prime Minister to invoke (or otherwise) Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty unless the PM, Cabinet and Parliamentproperly consider any decision to leave the EU, taking into account, amongst other things, the result of the 23rd June referendum ?

Perhaps c. 10 years living with some Bedouin's.

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by MDS

Curious that we have a PM who has stood down because the referendum didn't produce the result he argued for, and yet we seem highly likely to end up with a PM who was on his side in arguing (passively) for Remain?!  I know the Brexit leaders have effectively self-destructed but even so.  

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by Don Atkinson
MDS posted:

Curious that we have a PM who has stood down because the referendum didn't produce the result he argued for, and yet we seem highly likely to end up with a PM who was on his side in arguing (passively) for Remain?!  I know the Brexit leaders have effectively self-destructed but even so.  

Yes, all the big names have evaporated 1

But I keep on wondering, how many "closet" brexiteers there are in the Conservative Party.

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by MDS

I suspect quite a lot, Don. But the position we're seemingly heading for rather undermines Cameron's argument for stepping aside. Who, I wonder, would have the greater influence and credibility in the EU exit negotiations for the UK? Cameron, who has at least always been consistent in his policy, or May  who is not known for her flexibility in negotiations and who has arguably dithered in her position on the referendum issue?   

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by Don Atkinson

I think there are two situations to be considered. Chronologically.

First. An PM who can get the Cabinet and Parliament to properly consider Britain's best interests and if appropriate, get the necessary Act of Parliament to invoke Article 50.

Second. Assuming the decision is to invoke Article 50, A PM who can organise the EU exit negotiations in our best overall interests.

I am not convinced that Leadsom could achieve either task.

And I’m not convinced that May, given her history with the Police Federation (as an example) could achieve the second task as chief negotiator, although she might achieve the first task and be able to select a good negotiator for the second task.

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by MDS

I agree with you, Don.  

Leadsom already seems to have already shown her inexperience and lack of fitness for the top job in the way she handled the interview with the Times, and particularly her reaction afterwards. This seems to leave May as a shoe-in.  Being a long-time Tory heavyweight, she might be able to give the public the impression of achieving party unity but the task of negotiated a good exit package for the UK  with 27 member states, and keeping the devolved administrations on-board, is I fear too tough an ask of her charm, diplomacy, influencing and negotiating skills.  Cameron would do a better job in my view. 

Posted on: 10 July 2016 by Christopher_M

With all this global give the establishment a good kicking stuff, I'll be interested to see if it has spread to the Tory shires too.

C.

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Eloise

Well seems like this thread has run to its end ... is everyone glad we took back control?

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Innocent Bystander
Eloise posted:

Well seems like this thread has run to its end ... is everyone glad we took back control?

Did we? Seems more like UK's currently completely out of control in this regard!

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Eloise
Innocent Bystander posted:
Eloise posted:

Well seems like this thread has run to its end ... is everyone glad we took back control?

Did we? Seems more like UK's currently completely out of control in this regard!

I think you missed my sarcasm!

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Don Atkinson

Reported on Sky News, that a large number of lawyers have advised that|:-

.................... "Since the result was only narrowly in favour of Brexit, it cannot be discounted that the misrepresentations and promises were a decisive or contributory factor in the result."

The referendum did not set a threshold necessary to leave the EU, unlike many other important polls, "presumably because the result was only advisory", they said.

There are also questions as to the negotiating position of the UK after the triggering of Article 50, what happens if an agreement is not reached within the two-year limit, or the "emerging reality" that Article 50 negotiations will deal only with how the UK leaves the bloc, rather than any future economic relationships.

Because of these questions, the barristers say an investigation should take place "as a matter of urgency" to report back before the Parliamentary vote takes place.

Philip Kolvin QC, who co-ordinated the writing of the letter, said: "Parliament is sovereign and the guardian of our democracy.

"MPs are elected to exercise their best judgment on the basis of objective evidence, to safeguard the interests of the country and their constituents for this and future generations.

"At this time of profound constitutional, political and possibly social and economic crisis, we look to them to fulfil the responsibility placed upon them."

Aidan O'Neill, a constitutional and EU law specialist who also signed the letter, said: "The Brexit referendum has made clear that the UK is not a united nation-state, but a divided state of nations.

"But it has given no mandate or guidance as to what our nations' future relationship might be with Europe, and with each other."

He added: "Precipitate or unilateral action by the UK Government to trigger Article 50 will simply further divide us."

 In view of the Chilcot report, I think David Cameron and Teresa May would be well advised to take heed.

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Innocent Bystander
Eloise posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
Eloise posted:

Well seems like this thread has run to its end ... is everyone glad we took back control?

Did we? Seems more like UK's currently completely out of control in this regard!

I think you missed my sarcasm!

Sorry, was in serious mode! 

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by MDS

Leadsom just bailed-out of the leadership election for the conservative party.  Way now clear for May to lead our Brexit negotiations, as well as running the country.   

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by David Hendon

Why is all this happening while I am in France on holiday and not able to turn to my Naim for solace?....

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Christopher_M

May Day, May Day!

C.

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Don Atkinson
MDS posted:

Leadsom just bailed-out of the leadership election for the conservative party.  Way now clear for May to lead our Brexit negotiations, as well as running the country.   

Leadsom just bailed-out of the leadership election for the conservative party.  Way now clear for May to lead our Brexit negotiations, as well as ruinning the country.

I mis-read your post first time around. I'll leave the reader to spot my error !

I hope it's not prophetic..................I think us "Remainers" will now have to work bloody hard to make the best of it. I really do hope she doesn't feel the need to appoint too many of the Brexit Secretaries and Ministers back into Government.

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by MDS

Yes, Don.  I see now the alternative meaning.  Maybe not too far from reality, albeit unintentional

I agree that the Cabinet reshuffle that Ms May will now inevitably undertake will be interesting for who is included and excluded!

Mike 

 

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by Eloise
Don Atkinson posted:
MDS posted:

Leadsom just bailed-out of the leadership election for the conservative party.  Way now clear for May to lead our Brexit negotiations, as well as running the country.   

Leadsom just bailed-out of the leadership election for the conservative party.  Way now clear for May to lead our Brexit negotiations, as well as ruinning the country.

I mis-read your post first time around. I'll leave the reader to spot my error !

I'm glad I'm not the only person who misread MDS's post!

Posted on: 11 July 2016 by fatcat

As a Remainer, IMO things have working out OK.

 We lost the vote and we will probably leave the EU. But on the day after the referendum, we had the looming spectre of Boris as PM and a cabinet full of rabid Brexiteers and Farage involved in the negotiations. Then the spectre of Gove as PM and a cabinet full of rabid Brexiteers. Then the prospect of a talentless, naïve women taking over the control of the conservatives in a manor similar to the way Corbin took control of labour.

 Anybody seriously prefer any of the above scenarios to Theresa May.

Posted on: 12 July 2016 by Huge

In my opinion, with us already having substantial damage to our economy, it's far from OK.

However I agree May is as good as can be hoped given the alternatives after a Brexit vote.

Posted on: 12 July 2016 by winkyincanada

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?