Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Given the similarity of Ms May's accession to No10 to Gordon Brown's, I think there's a good argument for her to call a general election to both ratify the terms of exit sought and endorsement of her position as PM.  I would have thought the risk of such a decision - calling an election - going wrong for her is much reduced compared to the situation facing Brown.  Look at the state of the current official Opposition!  

MDS posted:

Given the similarity of Ms May's accession to No10 to Gordon Brown's, I think there's a good argument for her to call a general election to both ratify the terms of exit sought and endorsement of her position as PM.  I would have thought the risk of such a decision - calling an election - going wrong for her is much reduced compared to the situation facing Brown.  Look at the state of the current official Opposition!  

From independent.co.uk ...

Speaking in 2007, the then shadow minister for women*, said Mr Brown was “incompetent, lacking in vision, with the same old spin” and “running scared of the people’s verdict”.

“Yesterday in Prime Minister's questions his excuse for not calling an election was that only 26 people had signed a Downing street petition calling for one. I checked the website this morning and there are now 4,408# signatures and rising. Can the Leader of the House arrange for the Prime Minister to give us an update on the petition every week in Prime Minister's questions?” she added.

“The Prime Minister is running scared of a general election and he is also running scared of a referendum on the renamed European constitution.”

*Theressa May if you hadn't guessed.

#This years petition is at 14,600 signatures.

Much as I'd like to see the back of this Tory government, the very last thing we need now is further disruption. I very much suspect, given the current state of disarray and in-fighting within the Labour party, that the Conservatives would win an election with an increased majority.

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

MDS posted:

Given the similarity of Ms May's accession to No10 to Gordon Brown's, I think there's a good argument for her to call a general election to both ratify the terms of exit sought and endorsement of her position as PM.  I would have thought the risk of such a decision - calling an election - going wrong for her is much reduced compared to the situation facing Brown.  Look at the state of the current official Opposition!  

+1, except bearing  in mind all the many other things said about the referendum, I think that a general election combined with a definitive in-out referendum with pre-defined proportion for a definitive answer would be very appropriate, now people have had a real chance to think about it in the absence of the largely speculative and sometimes downright misleading campaining during the rub-up to the last referendum.

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

winky,

1. You are asking a rational, common sense, very important question.
2. This is politics in the 21st Centuary.

The two things are incompatible.

FWIW, I hand-delivered my letter of dismay (pun intended) to my local MP today. It won't make a blind bit of difference, but I felt I had to do it for my own clear conscience. My MP is reportedly the richest man in the House of Commons. I very much doubt if our relationship with the EU is even in the corner of his radar.

Innocent Bystander posted:

MDS posted:

Given the similarity of Ms May's accession to No10 to Gordon Brown's, I think there's a good argument for her to call a general election to both ratify the terms of exit sought and endorsement of her position as PM.  I would have thought the risk of such a decision - calling an election - going wrong for her is much reduced compared to the situation facing Brown.  Look at the state of the current official Opposition!  

+1, except bearing  in mind all the many other things said about the referendum, I think that a general election combined with a definitive in-out referendum with pre-defined proportion for a definitive answer would be very appropriate, now people have had a real chance to think about it in the absence of the largely speculative and sometimes downright misleading campaining during the rub-up to the last referendum.

whilst I agree, how could this be made to happen ?

bear in mind, that a group of a thousand lawyers has already pointed out the risk of implementing Article 50 without a proper debate and Act of Parliament.

Don Atkinson posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

MDS posted:

Given the similarity of Ms May's accession to No10 to Gordon Brown's, I think there's a good argument for her to call a general election to both ratify the terms of exit sought and endorsement of her position as PM.  I would have thought the risk of such a decision - calling an election - going wrong for her is much reduced compared to the situation facing Brown.  Look at the state of the current official Opposition!  

+1, except bearing  in mind all the many other things said about the referendum, I think that a general election combined with a definitive in-out referendum with pre-defined proportion for a definitive answer would be very appropriate, now people have had a real chance to think about it in the absence of the largely speculative and sometimes downright misleading campaining during the rub-up to the last referendum.

whilst I agree, how could this be made to happen ?

bear in mind, that a group of a thousand lawyers has already pointed out the risk of implementing Article 50 without a proper debate and Act of Parliament.

Easy:

Chances are, another referendum would say don't leave, so end of story - except serious discussions to be had with EU given the scare. 

And if it does say leave, and with a defined 'pass rate', parliament will seriously struggle not to agree to go along with it and pass required Act.

Meanwhile, I don't have an MP so can't lobby - but others can!

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

winkyincanada posted:

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

No of course it is not binding, but it is by convention the basis on which the Gov was elected, so they may doing anything in it without further reference to the electorate.

best

David

In my experience, about 50% (number picked out of the air) of every manifesto gets conveniently forgotten....

We really are getting to the point where we are clutching at straws on this subject.  Every contender for the conservatory leadership, include the remainers, was very careful to reitterate that brexit means brexit.  If the new PM was daft enough to go to the country, and if I remember rightly they would need 75% vote of MPs to do so, I suspect that Labour would be decimated in any resulting election so I sincerely hope they don't because we need Labour to get its act together and a strong opposition.  In the last 100 years there have been 24 Prime Ministers of which 12 were not put in place by a general election.  It's not going to happen and Brexit is a done deal in one form or another better to have a stable government that can get the best deal possible as we leave.

Innocent Bystander posted:

In my experience, about 50% (number picked out of the air) of every manifesto gets conveniently forgotten....

Do you really really want to be encouraging politicians to ignore their manifesto pledges?  On what basis will we actually be voting in future if manifestos are even less valid than they are now?

Given that it's the norm, it's not exactly giving them new ideas!

Innocent Bystander posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

MDS posted:

Given the similarity of Ms May's accession to No10 to Gordon Brown's, I think there's a good argument for her to call a general election to both ratify the terms of exit sought and endorsement of her position as PM.  I would have thought the risk of such a decision - calling an election - going wrong for her is much reduced compared to the situation facing Brown.  Look at the state of the current official Opposition!  

+1, except bearing  in mind all the many other things said about the referendum, I think that a general election combined with a definitive in-out referendum with pre-defined proportion for a definitive answer would be very appropriate, now people have had a real chance to think about it in the absence of the largely speculative and sometimes downright misleading campaining during the rub-up to the last referendum.

whilst I agree, how could this be made to happen ?

bear in mind, that a group of a thousand lawyers has already pointed out the risk of implementing Article 50 without a proper debate and Act of Parliament.

Easy:

Chances are, another referendum would say don't leave, so end of story - except serious discussions to be had with EU given the scare. 

And if it does say leave, and with a defined 'pass rate', parliament will seriously struggle not to agree to go along with it and pass required Act.

I wasn't really asking - "what potential routes might be available" - I have pointed out quite  few myself. I was asking how "you" or "I" could help to bring about a proper Parliamentary debate.

I have written to my MP. Many (c.4million) have petitioned for a second referendum (which Parliament has now agreed to debate - well it has to if there are more than 100,000 petitioners)

What else can the Common-man do ?

dayjay posted:

We really are getting to the point where we are clutching at straws on this subject.  Every contender for the conservatory leadership, include the remainers, was very careful to reitterate that brexit means brexit.  If the new PM was daft enough to go to the country, and if I remember rightly they would need 75% vote of MPs to do so, I suspect that Labour would be decimated in any resulting election so I sincerely hope they don't because we need Labour to get its act together and a strong opposition.  In the last 100 years there have been 24 Prime Ministers of which 12 were not put in place by a general election.  It's not going to happen and Brexit is a done deal in one form or another better to have a stable government that can get the best deal possible as we leave.

I'll believe Brexit when I see it happen. A long haul first, and then a longer haul after...

Innocent Bystander posted:

Given that it's the norm, it's not exactly giving them new ideas!

 

Yes, but when your house is on fire throwing petrol on is probably not wise.  Perhaps we should be encouraging them to actually deliver what they say they will when we vote for them. To be fair to the Tories, which I don't like doing, they promised a referendum, which they delivered, and promised to abide by the result, which they appear to be doing.  Well done them, unless of course we talk them into not behaving as honourable politicians just because we don't like the outcome

Don Atkinson posted:

Innocent Bystander posted:

Don Atkinson posted

whilst I agree, how could this be made to happen ?

bear in mind, that a group of a thousand lawyers has already pointed out the risk of implementing Article 50 without a proper debate and Act of Parliament.

Easy:

Chances are, another referendum would say don't leave, so end of story - except serious discussions to be had with EU given the scare. 

And if it does say leave, and with a defined 'pass rate', parliament will seriously struggle not to agree to go along with it and pass required Act.

I wasn't really asking - "what potential routes might be available" - I have pointed out quite  few myself. I was asking how "you" or "I" could help to bring about a proper Parliamentary debate.

I have written to my MP. Many (c.4million) have petitioned for a second referendum (which Parliament has now agreed to debate - well it has to if there are more than 100,000 petitioners)

What else can the Common-man do ?

For me, I'm afraid it is precious little - as I said, I've no MP to lobby, and I've no voting rights (except referendum)

Understood Innocent,

But if any inspirational thoughts do occur to you, please share them.

Not all manifestos are are in the best interests of the Nation and ploughing on and on with a bleeding obviously bad idea, just because of a marginal majority in an opinion-seeking poll isn't going to inspire confidence in that Party at the next election. Explaining clearly why they are now seeking expert opinion and debating that opinion openly and sincerely in the light of new information would IMHO, be a better option both for that Party and the Nation, whatever the conclusion.

dayjay posted:

 

Yes, but when your house is on fire throwing petrol on is probably not wise. 

On the other hand, if a household democratically decide to light a fire in the living room, egged on by a group of delinquents, promising it would be perfectly safe. When the fire gets out of control and starts to damage the building (and the idiots who set the fire have all disappeared) wouldn’t the more responsible members of the household put out the fire.

A general election linked to the EU exit issue is a non starter.

 Given public opinion seems to have swung towards remain, which political party (apart from UKIP) would actually campaign on the basis of leaving the EU.

 Conservatives, labour, libs and SNP would all campaign to remain.

fatcat posted:

A general election linked to the EU exit issue is a non starter.

 Given public opinion seems to have swung towards remain, which political party (apart from UKIP) would actually campaign on the basis of leaving the EU.

 Conservatives, labour, libs and SNP would all campaign to remain.

So, instead of a manifesto, a separate but simultaneous referendum, as I suggested, to give a clear steer and, if it does, clear justification for reversing the last referndum, and if notbthen it really is the will of the country. But there should be NO campaigning whatsoever on the Brexit question!

Innocent Bystander posted:

fatcat posted:

A general election linked to the EU exit issue is a non starter.

 Given public opinion seems to have swung towards remain, which political party (apart from UKIP) would actually campaign on the basis of leaving the EU.

 Conservatives, labour, libs and SNP would all campaign to remain.

So, instead of a manifesto, a separate but simultaneous referendum, as I suggested, to give a clear steer and, if it does, clear justification for reversing the last referndum, and if notbthen it really is the will of the country. But there should be NO campaigning whatsoever on the Brexit question!

Apparently a lot of the electorate got very confused when given a simple in/out vote, throwing a general election into the mix would confuse thing further.

 I don’t see how a meaningful general election could take place until the economic uncertainties have gone away. No parties could give realistic promises concerning what they would do in the next parliament without accurate financial forecasts.

winkyincanada posted:

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

Gosh, Winky. A manifesto that is binding?! I can tell that politics is not the career for you