Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

MDS posted:

winkyincanada posted:

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

Gosh, Winky. A manifesto that is binding?! I can tell that politics is not the career for you 

That's my point. David appears to be implying that there is some UK constitutional convention that means that politicians have to make good with their promises written in "manifestos". It's an extremely odd concept, hence my question.

Call a general election. Parties can run with their leave/stay intentions clear and receive a fresh mandate for exit (or not). Seem the only way to clear up this idiotic mess. The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

(A fair chunk of the rest of the world thinks you (UK) have lost your f%$#ing minds, by the way. Seriously, who listens to someone who says "I think people have had enough of experts"? The alternative? Policy guided by the deliberately ignorant? Well, I guess if that's what you want..... I mean, f*&^.)

winkyincanada posted:

(A fair chunk of the rest of the world thinks you (UK) have lost your f%$#ing minds, by the way. Seriously, who listens to someone who says "I think people have had enough of experts"? The alternative? Policy guided by the deliberately ignorant? Well, I guess if that's what you want..... I mean, f*&^.)

I completely agree, Winky. Indeed I feel somewhat embarrassed that we've ended up with this result and the consequential mess. I thought we, the electorate in the UK, had more collective common sense.

Mike 

Christ on a bike - when someone starts believing what  '.....a group of a thousand thousand lawyers...' says it really is time for me to take the gas pipe.

winkyincanada posted:

Call a general election. Parties can run with their leave/stay intentions clear and receive a fresh mandate for exit (or not). Seem the only way to clear up this idiotic mess.

 

But all the four main parties would campaign to remain.

Couldn’t we have a judicial review of the accuracy of the FACTS put forward by the Brexiteers.

 Surely it would be an open and shut case, the referendum would be declared null and void.

MDS posted:

winkyincanada posted:

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

Gosh, Winky. A manifesto that is binding?! I can tell that politics is not the career for you 

To be fair Mike, winky did actually say ".....Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience"

So I think there is hope for winky yet if he fancies a career change

One thing does seem certain about politicians - you can't rely on them !

If you want them to keep their election promises, they don't. If you want them to break their promises, they won't !!

Don Atkinson posted:

MDS posted:

winkyincanada posted:

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

Gosh, Winky. A manifesto that is binding?! I can tell that politics is not the career for you 

To be fair Mike, winky did actually say ".....Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience"

So I think there is hope for winky yet if he fancies a career change

Well, Don. Given the seeming paucity of political leaders in the UK at the moment perhaps he'd do well to have a shot in one of the many leadership contests we seem to be having at the moment. On the other hand Winky seems to have far too much common sense for that. 

thebigfredc posted:

Christ on a bike - when someone starts believing what  '.....a group of a thousand thousand lawyers...' says it really is time for me to take the gas pipe.

first, it was only a thousand lawyers, not a million (thousand thousand).

second, the thrust was much as your point of view, ie the Government (and the PM elect) doesn't believe them ! so no need for the gas pipe (yet)

MDS posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

MDS posted:

winkyincanada posted:

David Hendon posted:

winkyincanada posted:

How can there not be general election prior to any formal commitment to leaving the EU?

Unfortunately easily because the commitment to hold a referendum on remaining in the EU or otherwise was in the Conservative Manifesto (p 73) for the 2015General Election and the Manifesto said they would honour the result, whatever it was. So there has, by the UK's constitutional convention, been a General Election on the matter already.

Best

David

Is the Conservative Manifesto binding? What are consequences of not following it? Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience.

Gosh, Winky. A manifesto that is binding?! I can tell that politics is not the career for you 

To be fair Mike, winky did actually say ".....Election promises that are binding would be highly unusual in my experience"

So I think there is hope for winky yet if he fancies a career change

Well, Don. Given the seeming paucity of political leaders in the UK at the moment perhaps he'd do well to have a shot in one of the many leadership contests we seem to be having at the moment. On the other hand Winky seems to have far too much common sense for that. 

Mrs D got back on Saturday from a month in Canada. She voted Remain (I know because she asked me to vote for her as a proxy). She was upset about the outcome but really felt embarrassed by the patheticness of virtually all of our politicians and the stupid, idiotic drive to leave the EU regardless of the consequences. Everybody we know out there, thinks more or less like winky (well, on this issue !)

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

To my mind this is abundantly clear.

The UK has always been a reluctant member of the EU  that reluctance being largely represented by the right of the Conservative Party but not entirely - the late Tony Benn was a staunch leaver amongst others.  To resolve the issue once and for all David Cameron committed in the 2015 Conservative Manifesto to a referendum once he had attempted to renegotiate the terms of the UK's membership.  Having done this he held to the commitment and held the referendum.   The ballot was duly held and the Country by a small  but nonetheless clear margin voted to leave.    The outcome is morally if not legally binding in that the Gov't must now implement Clause 50 and negotiate our exit.

I happen to believe that the so called Brexit group totally mis=represented the benefits of leaving and for that reason negotiating an exit route that provides the necessary economic and other reassurances will be difficult in the extreme.  However, as catastrophic as I believe it's going to be (I spent today amongst a group of leading aerospace industrialists from across the Globe - European or from further afield all without exception were aghast at the outcome) leave we must.

Regards,

Lindsay

Suzy Wong posted:

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

That depends on whether you mean the votes as counted, and how you regard the assessment of results, and mhat your take is on the multitudinous things that have been said since, including people who say they voted out justbto make a point, never expecting it could possibly swing that way.....  There are many arguments in favour of having another referendum.

Before the referendum there was a kind of frenzy  outcry from Brexit supporters including people like Boris Johnson and many leading newspapers.  After the referendum all gone quiet, and even on this thread there does not seem to be any posts from pro Brexit supporters.  Its like the children have made the mess and Theresa May (who voted to remain) has been called in to clean up the mess.  I am with her who takes the stance that we voted to be out of EU so lets be all positive and make the best of it for UK.  Bejesus I voted to remain and now I want every one to be positive, presumably we can now control our borders, remove the silly petty EU rules which interfered with every day business (the meat packers in Smithfield will rejoice!), we don't have to turn every farm land into arable land (removing natural habitat) Com 'on someone join in on the positive issues unless we are allowed a second vote (well thats a plan..!)

Innocent Bystander posted:

Suzy Wong posted:

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

That depends on whether you mean the votes as counted, and how you regard the assessment of results, and mhat your take is on the multitudinous things that have been said since, including people who say they voted out justbto make a point, never expecting it could possibly swing that way.....  There are many arguments in favour of having another referendum.

The votes as counted. That is all that counts in the democratic process as implemented. Everything else is just talk, talk.

The Strat (Fender) posted:

To my mind this is abundantly clear.

The UK has always been a reluctant member of the EU  that reluctance being largely represented by the right of the Conservative Party but not entirely - the late Tony Benn was a staunch leaver amongst others.  To resolve the issue once and for all David Cameron committed in the 2015 Conservative Manifesto to a referendum once he had attempted to renegotiate the terms of the UK's membership.  Having done this he held to the commitment and held the referendum.   The ballot was duly held and the Country by a small  but nonetheless clear margin voted to leave.    The outcome is morally if not legally binding in that the Gov't must now implement Clause 50 and negotiate our exit.

I happen to believe that the so called Brexit group totally mis=represented the benefits of leaving and for that reason negotiating an exit route that provides the necessary economic and other reassurances will be difficult in the extreme.  However, as catastrophic as I believe it's going to be (I spent today amongst a group of leading aerospace industrialists from across the Globe - European or from further afield all without exception were aghast at the outcome) leave we must.

Regards,

Lindsay

 

I'm not saying we must not leave. But in view of the mis-representation (and lies) together with the slender marginal result in a referendum and the virtually unanimous view of the outside world that leaving would be catastrophic, I consider the sensible thing to do is review the case, properly. Then decide. Anything else appears to me to be somewhat unnecessarily restrictive.

Romi posted:

Before the referendum there was a kind of frenzy  outcry from Brexit supporters including people like Boris Johnson and many leading newspapers.  After the referendum all gone quiet, and even on this thread there does not seem to be any posts from pro Brexit supporters.  Its like the children have made the mess and Theresa May (who voted to remain) has been called in to clean up the mess.  I am with her who takes the stance that we voted to be out of EU so lets be all positive and make the best of it for UK.  Bejesus I voted to remain and now I want every one to be positive, presumably we can now control our borders, remove the silly petty EU rules which interfered with every day business (the meat packers in Smithfield will rejoice!), we don't have to turn every farm land into arable land (removing natural habitat) Com 'on someone join in on the positive issues unless we are allowed a second vote (well thats a plan..!)

I voted out. Surprised but pleased by the result. My reasons for voting haven't changed and i'd vote the same way again if the need arose.

Willy.

Willy, quite a few people where I work voted to Leave. They each had their own reasons. Some based on the (IMHO) misleading propaganda of Farage and Gove, some on the "enthusiasm" of Johnson and one or two on their concern that the EU was a spent force, about to collapse and that we should leave before that happened. Most had several reasons not just one. One or two have changed their minds but most haven't and won't. This later group is absolutely adamant that a majority of 50% + 1 would justify an immediate road to exit regardless of any other factors.

I would like Parliament to investigate and debate. Then decide. I appreciate this seems unlikely to happen.

It seems likely we will have to rely on the drive and determination of Remain Leaders to steer us through this situation and galvanise all of us, Remain and Leave alike, in what looks like a high-risk enterprise. I only hope the Leave voters are more visibly and pragmatically engaged than the Leave Leaders appear to be - all of whom appear to have shot each other (or themselves)  in their "enthusiasm" following their "victory"

Don Atkinson posted:

Willy, quite a few people where I work voted to Leave. They each had their own reasons. Some based on the (IMHO) misleading propaganda of Farage and Gove, some on the "enthusiasm" of Johnson and one or two on their concern that the EU was a spent force, about to collapse and that we should leave before that happened. Most had several reasons not just one. One or two have changed their minds but most haven't and won't. This later group is absolutely adamant that a majority of 50% + 1 would justify an immediate road to exit regardless of any other factors.

I would like Parliament to investigate and debate. Then decide. I appreciate this seems unlikely to happen.

It seems likely we will have to rely on the drive and determination of Remain Leaders to steer us through this situation and galvanise all of us, Remain and Leave alike, in what looks like a high-risk enterprise. I only hope the Leave voters are more visibly and pragmatically engaged than the Leave Leaders appear to be.

Let's see what pans out in the likely Conservative reshuffle. I'd imagine there'll be a few "leavers" in key positions there and let's face it May was over expected to come out as a leaver. Given the shock of the, unexpected, referendum outcome it was always going to take some time to "pragmatise" a suitable organisation to move things forward.

Imho Boris never was a leaver at heart and anyway is probably unsuited to a leadership role that is in any way confrontational. 

Ukip will only really come into play if parliament backtracks on "Brexit". In that case I'd not be surprised if they rout labour and Tories at the next general election.

Corbyn. Labour split anyone?

Willy.

Willy posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Willy, quite a few people where I work voted to Leave. They each had their own reasons. Some based on the (IMHO) misleading propaganda of Farage and Gove, some on the "enthusiasm" of Johnson and one or two on their concern that the EU was a spent force, about to collapse and that we should leave before that happened. Most had several reasons not just one. One or two have changed their minds but most haven't and won't. This later group is absolutely adamant that a majority of 50% + 1 would justify an immediate road to exit regardless of any other factors.

I would like Parliament to investigate and debate. Then decide. I appreciate this seems unlikely to happen.

It seems likely we will have to rely on the drive and determination of Remain Leaders to steer us through this situation and galvanise all of us, Remain and Leave alike, in what looks like a high-risk enterprise. I only hope the Leave voters are more visibly and pragmatically engaged than the Leave Leaders appear to be.

Let's see what pans out in the likely Conservative reshuffle. I'd imagine there'll be a few "leavers" in key positions there and let's face it May was over expected to come out as a leaver. Given the shock of the, unexpected, referendum outcome it was always going to take some time to "pragmatise" a suitable organisation to move things forward.

Imho Boris never was a leaver at heart and anyway is probably unsuited to a leadership role that is in any way confrontational. 

Ukip will only really come into play if parliament backtracks on "Brexit". In that case I'd not be surprised if they rout labour and Tories at the next general election.

Corbyn. Labour split anyone?

Willy.

Yes, I got that feeling. mischief ? Fun ?

or senceless, irresponsibility ?

I would rest safe in the knowledge that stay or leave, most of Europe is about to enter a bond and currency crisis...and the UK will too, with or without the EU. So when it happens, don't blame the Brexit, and just know that your own politicians and central bankers will almost certainly follow the same misguided and ultimately unsuccessful measures to deal with it.

As one of the Fed Chairmen lamented to a reporter last week, "QE only works if you're the only one doing it." (I would add it only works sort of (at best) and in any event temporarily.) Right now it's a global currency race to the bottom in the world's developed markets.

The EU is an economic basket case. According to a report in Spanish newspaper Expansión over the weekend, the debt of seven different Spanish companies – worth nearly 16 billion euros ($17.7 billion in U.S. dollars) – is now trading with negative interest rates.

When the corporate debt of one of the weakest economies in the eurozone is now charging, rather than paying interest – while even short-term U.S. Treasurys are still paying a positive yield – is it any surprise money is fleeing to the U.S.?

Today, so-called "risk free" U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities yield 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively. ("Risk free" because unlike a company, the government can always print money to pay off the bonds if necessary, rather than default.) So, basically America is the "last man standing" with positive yields.

Eventually, this capital flight into US Treasuries will push down the yields there as well. Eventually – whether this trend is allowed to play out, or the Federal Reserve proactively slashes short-term rates to weaken the dollar and stem the tide – negative interests rates are likely coming to the U.S.

And when all this bad sovereign and corporate debt starts to default - watch out, it will be party time.

So don't fret about the Brexit and the upcoming recession (or perhaps even depression) - in the end it will all go the same way irrespective of the outcome of the referendum.

You may now shoot the messenger...

I personally find Boris much more of an interesting character than anybody else in either party although I accept he is not perfect by any means. I found the reasons why he didn't stand for leader as not convincing at all and I think there must be a skeleton in his closet which prevented him from standing for the PM job. Just IMHO of course.

thebigfredc posted:

I personally find Boris much more of an interesting character than anybody else in either party although I accept he is not perfect by any means. I found the reasons why he didn't stand for leader as not convincing at all and I think there must be a skeleton in his closet which prevented him from standing for the PM job. Just IMHO of course.

 

I don't think there's a skeleton in Boris's closet. I think he is highly intelligent and could see quite clearly that none of what his campaign promised was deliverable and he was probably mighty relieved when idiot-boy Gove saved him from having to take up the poisoned chalice. It leaves him clear to have another run at the leadership later when someone else (Mrs May as it turns out) has tried to clear up the mess he created.

And without wanting to reopen the discussion about whether there should be a General Election now, as the debate continued after I had signed off for the night, I just wanted to say that my point yesterday evening about the constitutional convention around the Manifesto on which a Government was elected is simply that the Manifesto contained the things they said they would do if elected.  So it is in effect permissive. They may go ahead and do the things in their Manifesto, however serious, without having a further election, but there is no requirement for them to do everything in it. There could be many reasons why something that was in it is no longer something they want to do.  It's nothing to do with it being mandatory or not.  Of course it's not mandatory.  Most governments don't do half the things in their manifesto.

So here's a wild guess.  Gove off to the back benches, Leadsom to the Treasury as Financial Secretary or Chief Secretary and Boris Johnson Home Secretary............

best

David

David Hendon posted:

thebigfredc posted:

I personally find Boris much more of an interesting character than anybody else in either party although I accept he is not perfect by any means. I found the reasons why he didn't stand for leader as not convincing at all and I think there must be a skeleton in his closet which prevented him from standing for the PM job. Just IMHO of course.

 

I don't think there's a skeleton in Boris's closet. I think he is highly intelligent and could see quite clearly that none of what his campaign promised was deliverable and he was probably mighty relieved when idiot-boy Gove saved him from having to take up the poisoned chalice. It leaves him clear to have another run at the leadership later when someone else (Mrs May as it turns out) has tried to clear up the mess he created.

And without wanting to reopen the discussion about whether there should be a General Election now, as the debate continued after I had signed off for the night, I just wanted to say that my point yesterday evening about the constitutional convention around the Manifesto on which a Government was elected is simply that the Manifesto contained the things they said they would do if elected.  So it is in effect permissive. They may go ahead and do the things in their Manifesto, however serious, without having a further election, but there is no requirement for them to do everything in it. There could be many reasons why something that was in it is no longer something they want to do.  It's nothing to do with it being mandatory or not.  Of course it's not mandatory.  Most governments don't do half the things in their manifesto.

So here's a wild guess.  Gove off to the back benches, Leadsom to the Treasury as Financial Secretary or Chief Secretary and Boris Johnson Home Secretary............

best

David

............and that, I think, just about sums it all up..........

So why, oh why, does this Party persevere.............. ??