Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Here we go, talking about people and "the characters" again as if our future was some sort of Saturday night talent show. 

We've always been lousy Europeans. Our hearts were never in it. The EU don't deserve our petulant presence and now we've voted to leave, we should leave. I'm getting old now, so it's more my children and grandchildren who will bear the consequences. 

If it turns out good then fair enough. If it turns out tough (as some of my friends who voted to leave now realise and are whinging about how they were lied to, as their future wealth and security goes down by the week) that's fair enough too. Sew it, reap it.

Some good will come of it for me and I have now been motivated into getting dual citizenship, something I should have done many years ago.  My affairs are arranged such that I''m going to be OK and I'll have one foot planted in Europe after the UK is gone. Every cloud and all that. But people who have nothing, voting to award themselves less than nothing is something I can't get my head around. One can only assume that a significant proportion of them were misinformed. and their utter desperation was troyed with for entirely other ends.  Shameful.

Well Harry - Western politics almost is infotainment. I again will not comment much on UK politicians because of my very limited association with them (although I make an exception for Tony Blair, who I think should be in a jail cell along with Bush, Cheney, et al.) 

And nowhere is it more infotainment than here in the USA. If Trump has had any redeeming value (such as it is), it's that he has exposed the entire presidential electoral process for what it is: a great, big, fat, "made for TV" reality show farce. It was that before he showed up, and it will continue to be that after he's gone. All he did was remove the veneer.

And the average American with their room temperature IQ laps it up and cries for more.

More, more, more, more........................doh! Sorry Dr. Mark, I don't seem to be able to control my room temperature IQ this morning.

Cheers

DrMark posted:

Well Harry - Western politics almost is infotainment. I again will not comment much on UK politicians because of my very limited association with them (although I make an exception for Tony Blair, who I think should be in a jail cell along with Bush, Cheney, et al.) 

And nowhere is it more infotainment than here in the USA. If Trump has had any redeeming value (such as it is), it's that he has exposed the entire presidential electoral process for what it is: a great, big, fat, "made for TV" reality show farce. It was that before he showed up, and it will continue to be that after he's gone. All he did was remove the veneer.

Don't disagree with a word of that. Seems you know about as much about the UK situation as some in the UK, and possibly more than many!

It has been difficult for me to watch the US situation unfold (or should that be unravel?)  because of my constant face palming reflex.  For what it's worth (in reality nothing) I sympathise. Although in the UK as in the US, the broader picture remains that  we get the society we deserve. 

Never imagined of see the day when UK (mainland) and US politics made Northern Ireland politics seem comparatively boring.��

Willy.

Suzy Wong posted:

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

You're being naive. I'm not taking about the subset that voted. I'm talking about the entire population. If the referendum were to be run again, the outcome would be different.

Yeah, sure, more people should have voted, and people should have voted according to their wishes, rather than the stupid "protest votes" that may have actually changed the outcome. But I'm not talking about any of that. My point is that most people actually want to stay and it is in the overwhelming interests of the vast majority to stay.

My point is that most people actually want to stay

If thats the case they would have voted to stay in ,maybe the peopole who never voted don't give a toss if we are in our out.

Back home in Vancouver at last. I am so glad you are back home as well.

winkyincanada posted:

Suzy Wong posted:

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

You're being naive. I'm not taking about the subset that voted. I'm talking about the entire population. If the referendum were to be run again, the outcome would be different.

Yeah, sure, more people should have voted, and people should have voted according to their wishes, rather than the stupid "protest votes" that may have actually changed the outcome. But I'm not talking about any of that. My point is that most people actually want to stay and it is in the overwhelming interests of the vast majority to stay.

To Winkincanada,

I am sorry to appear nniave but if you are Canadian would you like NAFTA to be extended to a political union whereby a group of unelected and unaccountableo bureaucrats in another country have influence over your life. They want to remove your currency, set your interest rates, over rule your courts and even do bizarre things like perhaps banning that thing you do with a brush on ice as well as letting in the Mexicans. Sounds a bit shit does it not but that was our position within the EU.

Ray

thebigfredc posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Suzy Wong posted:

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

You're being naive. I'm not taking about the subset that voted. I'm talking about the entire population. If the referendum were to be run again, the outcome would be different.

Yeah, sure, more people should have voted, and people should have voted according to their wishes, rather than the stupid "protest votes" that may have actually changed the outcome. But I'm not talking about any of that. My point is that most people actually want to stay and it is in the overwhelming interests of the vast majority to stay.

To Winkincanada,

I am sorry to appear nniave but if you are Canadian would you like NAFTA to be extended to a political union whereby a group of unelected and unaccountableo bureaucrats in another country have influence over your life. They want to remove your currency, set your interest rates, over rule your courts and even do bizarre things like perhaps banning that thing you do with a brush on ice as well as letting in the Mexicans. Sounds a bit shit does it not but that was our position within the EU.

Ray

Ray

What tragic nonsense. As a trading group some members decided to collaborate on a number of matters. We didn't agree on a single currency so we, our government rejected the Euro. We did have a vote and we used it! Yes that trading group ran a central bank but only because those countries agreed to be involved and for the central bank to do so on their behalf! They all thought there were advantages to doing  so and they all voted to agree. Not sure what you think they banned on ice with a brush.

And collectively your and my government agreed that free movement of people within the EU was a good idea, No EU bureaucrat imposed this, our government agreed to it.

Now you may not have agreed with all of that and you voted for Brexit. That is your democratic right but you cant peddle nonsense as fact.

Lutyens

i couldn't have put it better than you did.

best

David

DrMark posted:

I would rest safe in the knowledge that stay or leave, most of Europe is about to enter a bond and currency crisis...and the UK will too, with or without the EU. So when it happens, don't blame the Brexit, and just know that your own politicians and central bankers will almost certainly follow the same misguided and ultimately unsuccessful measures to deal with it.

As one of the Fed Chairmen lamented to a reporter last week, "QE only works if you're the only one doing it." (I would add it only works sort of (at best) and in any event temporarily.) Right now it's a global currency race to the bottom in the world's developed markets.

The EU is an economic basket case. According to a report in Spanish newspaper Expansión over the weekend, the debt of seven different Spanish companies – worth nearly 16 billion euros ($17.7 billion in U.S. dollars) – is now trading with negative interest rates.

When the corporate debt of one of the weakest economies in the eurozone is now charging, rather than paying interest – while even short-term U.S. Treasurys are still paying a positive yield – is it any surprise money is fleeing to the U.S.?

Today, so-called "risk free" U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities yield 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively. ("Risk free" because unlike a company, the government can always print money to pay off the bonds if necessary, rather than default.) So, basically America is the "last man standing" with positive yields.

Eventually, this capital flight into US Treasuries will push down the yields there as well. Eventually – whether this trend is allowed to play out, or the Federal Reserve proactively slashes short-term rates to weaken the dollar and stem the tide – negative interests rates are likely coming to the U.S.

And when all this bad sovereign and corporate debt starts to default - watch out, it will be party time.

So don't fret about the Brexit and the upcoming recession (or perhaps even depression) - in the end it will all go the same way irrespective of the outcome of the referendum.

You may now shoot the messenger...

So Dr Mark,

Basically what you are saying is that Capitalism itself is flawed, and that we should have listened to Marx after all. 

thebigfredc posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Suzy Wong posted:

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

You're being naive. I'm not taking about the subset that voted. I'm talking about the entire population. If the referendum were to be run again, the outcome would be different.

Yeah, sure, more people should have voted, and people should have voted according to their wishes, rather than the stupid "protest votes" that may have actually changed the outcome. But I'm not talking about any of that. My point is that most people actually want to stay and it is in the overwhelming interests of the vast majority to stay.

To Winkincanada,

I am sorry to appear nniave but if you are Canadian would you like NAFTA to be extended to a political union whereby a group of unelected and unaccountableo bureaucrats in another country have influence over your life. They want to remove your currency, set your interest rates, over rule your courts and even do bizarre things like perhaps banning that thing you do with a brush on ice as well as letting in the Mexicans. Sounds a bit shit does it not but that was our position within the EU.

Ray

It isn't and wasn't like that at all Ray. A few points of trivial detail, yes, perhaps. But the overall picture you paint is a gross distortion of reality.

winkyincanada posted:

Suzy Wong posted:

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

You're being naive. I'm not taking about the subset that voted. I'm talking about the entire population. If the referendum were to be run again, the outcome would be different.

Yeah, sure, more people should have voted, and people should have voted according to their wishes, rather than the stupid "protest votes" that may have actually changed the outcome. But I'm not talking about any of that. My point is that most people actually want to stay and it is in the overwhelming interests of the vast majority to stay.

I would imagine that reading the minds of the entire British electorate so that you can assert with such certainty how they would vote in a future referendum must have been quite tiring. Maybe when you've had a little lie down to recover your faculties you could perhaps turn your powers to the Euromillions Lottery numbers? No rush, anytime before 7:30pm on Friday will be fine.

Willy.

winkyincanada posted:

Suzy Wong posted:

winkyincanada

 

 

The UK will otherwise leave the EU against the best interests and the wishes of the great majority of its people.

 

Looking at the result, it appears that the majority of people who expressed a preference by voting, wish to leave the EU. 

You're being naive. I'm not taking about the subset that voted. I'm talking about the entire population. If the referendum were to be run again, the outcome would be different.

Yeah, sure, more people should have voted, and people should have voted according to their wishes, rather than the stupid "protest votes" that may have actually changed the outcome. But I'm not talking about any of that. My point is that most people actually want to stay and it is in the overwhelming interests of the vast majority to stay.

How can you possibly know that most people want to stay?  The only proper measure of what people think on the subject showed that most people in fact wanted to leave which is why we are in this position

I think Canada's or the USAs position in NAFTA makes an interestin comparison with ours in the EU, especially in light of Obhamas interference in the referendum. I can't imagine Americans giving up the dollar and letting a much poorer neighbour such as Mexico drag its economy down. I also wonder how the US Supreme Court being subordinate to the NAFTA Court would be received.

Ray

The European Court of Human Rights is separate to the EU.

Obama expressed a view but didn't interfere in the EU pre-vote run up. (And reminding us that there is a queue for trade deals was simply factual information).

Both Cameron and May have today claimed that over the past 6 years the UK economy became stronger than ever.

We still have the £. and it was clear that we would never replace it with the Euro.

Given that May seems intent on leaving Europe, could the "Leavers" on this Forum:-

1) set out the key benefits of leaving

2) the key risks in leaving and

3) what we need to do to minimise (or hopefully prevent) such risks  becoming reality.

Don Atkinson posted:

The European Court of Human Rights is separate to the EU.

That is quite true, but the ECJ (European Court of Justice) preliminary ruling against France has said that a company can't discriminate against someone for wearing the hijab.

Obama expressed a view but didn't interfere in the EU pre-vote run up. (And reminding us that there is a queue for trade deals was simply factual information).

+1

Both Cameron and May have today claimed that over the past 6 years the UK economy became stronger than ever.

But think how much stronger the economy would have been without the pesky EU!  :-)

On second thoughts, it would seem just as valid if the "Remainers" set out their perception of the key benefits, risk and mitigations concerned with leaving.

And on third thoughts, our friends around the globe might help us find a way forward on the basis of leaving..............

Eloise posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

The European Court of Human Rights is separate to the EU.

That is quite true, but the ECJ (European Court of Justice) preliminary ruling against France has said that a company can't discriminate against someone for wearing the hijab.

Obama expressed a view but didn't interfere in the EU pre-vote run up. (And reminding us that there is a queue for trade deals was simply factual information).

+1

Both Cameron and May have today claimed that over the past 6 years the UK economy became stronger than ever.

But think how much stronger the economy would have been without the pesky EU!  :-)

 

....possibly. but it might also have been much weaker. The fact is the Ex PM and the new PM were (justifyably) claiming strength over the past 6 years whilst Ray was positing Doom & Gloom.

Hi Don,

I was referring to the European Court of Justice which is an institution of the EU.

Obama was wheeled out in support of the remain campaign when It became apparent that we the hoi polloi were ignoring the wishes of our masters (Cameron, Carney etc) which was right in the middle of the campaign if my memory is ok.

Finally, we only kept the pound after quite an effort to negotiate our Euro opt out (Mastericht Treaty no less).

Ray

Being invited is a far cry from interfering.

We have the £. I think Sweden still has its Krona.

By simply choosing to stay outside the exchange rate mechanism, the Swedish government is provided a formal loophole avoiding the theoretical requirement of adopting the euro.