Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Don Atkinson posted:

ynwa250505 posted:

 

"Those in power" are simply responding to the outcome of a democratic event - what else would you have them do?

1. Make it clear that triggering A50 is reversible (*) in the event that Parliament confirms we should aim to leave. (*) (this is a most significant factor - it strengthens the UK negotiating position beyond belief. Regardless of Items 2 to 5 below we should establish this situation).

2. Recognise that the Vote was very close and that the Leave Campaign contained a Pack-of-Lies.

3. Carefully consider the Opportunities and Threats of Leaving v Remaining. (IMHO this has yet to happen !)

4. Seek consent from our elected representatives, ie a free vote in the Commons concerning the best way forward, based on Items 1 to 3.

5. Dissolve Parliament and hold a General Election in which the outcome of Item 4 would be a key issue in forming a Government to Take us Out of the EU or a Government that would Strengthen our Position within the EU.

6. Trigger A50 if appropriate. Providing a suitable deal is reached, Leave.

Items 4 and 5 could follow Item 6.

Brexiteers might consider Items 4 and 5 to be undemocratic and should be deleted.

Anybody who considers Items 1,2,3 and 6 to be unnecessary might as well jump off a cliff without first checking the tide is in and the water is deep enough !

1. There is no consensus on the reversibility of Article 50 - only varying legal interpretations. The UK Govt and the High Court take the view that it is not reversible, but other commentators disagree. However, on a political level, the referendum outcome does not envisage remaining in the UK, so the reversibility of article 50 is a moot point and so it doesn't alter the negotiating position for that very reason.

2. Not sure what point is being made here - in the context of a referendum, the result was not close at all. I take it you disagreed with some of the publicity. So did I.

3. Again, not sure what point is being made here - the voters have already done a SWOT analysis.

4. Again, not sure what point is being made here - our elected representatives have already had a vote and they voted to place the matter in the hands of the electorate. It is now the responsibility of the Govt to act on the outcome of the referendum decision.

5. Dissolve Parliament? What would that achieve? The Labour and Liberal parties (currently) have no political relevance whatsoever. The Conservatives would win any election by some distance. In any event, Labour and Conservative have both committed to the referendum outcome - so "Strengthen our Position in the EU" is not on offer - unless you expect the Liberals to form a Govt?

6. "if appropriate" - why would it be inappropriate to trigger Article 50? That was the whole point of the referendum ...

This is simply a divorce - and divorces come with a lot of emotion, trauma and a degree of adverse economic side-effect. The choice is one of continuing to live with somebody that makes you miserable or suffer the short/medium pains of a divorce in the hope that a better and more enjoyable life will eventually materialise. Given that we have decided to divorce, we should just get on it and stop dragging out the misery. The sun will still rise ...

Personally, I am agnostic about the whole thing, except that it is time we stopped talking and started doing. It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ...

regards

ynwa250505 posted:

It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ...

And the Naim forum ;-)

C.

ynwa250505 posted:

1. There is no consensus on the reversibility of Article 50 - only varying legal interpretations. The UK Govt and the High Court take the view that it is not reversible, but other commentators disagree. However, on a political level, the referendum outcome does not envisage remaining in the UK, so the reversibility of article 50 is a moot point and so it doesn't alter the negotiating position for that very reason.

It's irrelevant what the UK thinks. What's important is whether A50 is reversible. If it is, it puts the UK in a very, very powerful negotiating position. I had presumed that every Brexiteer would appreciate this. Rather disappointing to find so few realise just how powerful this is.

2. Not sure what point is being made here - in the context of a referendum, the result was not close at all. I take it you disagreed with some of the publicity. So did I.

No. The result was very close. Publicity is one thing. Lies are quite different whether they start at £350mpw or are subsequently changed to £50mpd, they are lies. Without those specific lies, and the rest of them, the result could well have been reversed.

3. Again, not sure what point is being made here - the voters have already done a SWOT analysis.

The Gov hasn't done a SWOT yet. However, they are in the process - at least in the aviation industry they are (I know because of my input) so I presume they are doing likewise in other industries. As for the voters ? you must be joking !

4. Again, not sure what point is being made here - our elected representatives have already had a vote and they voted to place the matter in the hands of the electorate. It is now the responsibility of the Govt to act on the outcome of the referendum decision.

A Referendum is advisory. HMG should take it into account, along with other factors. TM seems to think she is an all-powerful dictator who can simply bulldoze her Brexit (plan ?) forward from 1st April onwards. The Supreme Court has yet to provide its verdict as to whether MPs should debate the issue and vote to support Brexit or reject Brexit. IMHO any MP who is unhappy to support Brexit should either vote against Brexit or resign. (a bit like Sir Ivan) and ask his local constituency to re-elect him on that basis, or somebody else who is willing to support Brexit.

5. Dissolve Parliament? What would that achieve? The Labour and Liberal parties (currently) have no political relevance whatsoever. The Conservatives would win any election by some distance. In any event, Labour and Conservative have both committed to the referendum outcome - so "Strengthen our Position in the EU" is not on offer - unless you expect the Liberals to form a Govt?

The choice would be primarily between candidates who support Brexit and those who don't.

6. "if appropriate" - why would it be inappropriate to trigger Article 50? That was the whole point of the referendum ...

HMG has more responsibility to discharge than simply facilitate leading a bunch of lemmings over the cliff (along with all other species). If their considered analysis shows leaving the EU to be analogous to lemmings over a cliff, they have a duty to explain the situation.

This is simply a divorce - and divorces come with a lot of emotion, trauma and a degree of adverse economic side-effect. The choice is one of continuing to live with somebody that makes you miserable or suffer the short/medium pains of a divorce in the hope that a better and more enjoyable life will eventually materialise. Given that we have decided to divorce, we should just get on it and stop dragging out the misery. The sun will still rise ...

Personally, I am agnostic about the whole thing, except that it is time we stopped talking and started doing. It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ...

I disagree. It is now even more important, to identify the threats and opportunities, to assess the best way forward and to make HMG aware of these issues and their responsibilities.

Regards

 

 

Personally, I am agnostic about the whole thing, except that it is time we stopped talking and started doing. It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ...

regards

........ and Don. I agree with you, BORING . The majority of those who could be bothered to get off their bots and vote voted for exit. End of. Whether you perceive them  right or wrong is not the point and is open to personal opinion. Whether Brexit lies or Remain threats possibly swayed the vote is also open to personal opinion.

It's time to stop all this the bl.....y bleating, whining, moaning, name calling and lets just get on with it.

Wugged Woy posted:

 

 

Personally, I am agnostic about the whole thing, except that it is time we stopped talking and started doing. It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ...

regards

........ and Don. I agree with you, BORING . The majority of those who could be bothered to get off their bots and vote voted for exit. End of. Whether you perceive them  right or wrong is not the point and is open to personal opinion. Whether Brexit lies or Remain threats possibly swayed the vote is also open to personal opinion.

It's time to stop all this the bl.....y bleating, whining, moaning, name calling andlets just get on with it.

and...........

what is your perception of "it" ie what do you hope will be HMG's outcome of negotiations with the EU ?

and........

what are you doing to help "get on with " ?

You will know, having carefully followed this thread, how I am putting quite a bit of time and effort into providing guidance to HMG about possible opportunities in the aviation industry (and of course possible threats and how to minimise or avoid them), but what are you doing ?

Please don't be coy !

Wugged Woy posted:

 

 

Personally, I am agnostic about the whole thing, except that it is time we stopped talking and started doing. It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ...

regards

........ and Don. I agree with you, BORING . The majority of those who could be bothered to get off their bots and vote voted for exit. End of. Whether you perceive them  right or wrong is not the point and is open to personal opinion. Whether Brexit lies or Remain threats possibly swayed the vote is also open to personal opinion.

It's time to stop all this the bl.....y bleating, whining, moaning, name calling and lets just get on with it.

Othering and implicit vilification of those who think differently, in an attempt to foreclose discussion.  Both quotes.  There was quite enough of that during both campaigns.

IMO things will get curiouser and curiouser as we approach the supreme court judgement, due at some point this month.

It is astounding that the govt hadn't conducted (or perhaps directed the civil service to conduct) the mother of all SWOT analyses prior to the vote.  Thanks for the confirmation that they're now doing something along those lines, Don.  That's just the sort of thing that citizens/subjects should hear about, but don't.

But I don't see that a general election would help.  Whether you see the state of the party as striding forward with a sense of purpose towards a red, white & blue brexit, or as the euroskeptic tail wagging the dumbfounded dog (personally, it's the latter), the fact is that the Conservatives would probably win, and within Torydom a (b)remain platform would get crushed.  From the point of view of anyone except a hard brexiteer, a GE would prove counter productive IMO.  And I suspect May has persuasive internal reasons to avoid calling one anyway.

I think Brexit (actually the whole government) is becoming a pantomime... whatever an expert says, Teressa May's reply is "oh no it isn't". 

Eloise posted:

......... whatever an expert says, .........

Should we be surprised?

Dave***t posted:

It is astounding that the govt hadn't conducted (or perhaps directed the civil service to conduct) the mother of all SWOT analyses prior to the vote. 

Dave, among my contacts are several senior civil servants and I was told, both before and immediately after the vote, that Cameron and Osborne (with typical recklessness and arrogance, I might add) were so confident that the remain side would win that they instructed the various departments not to bother with designing Brexit scenarios as such exercises were a waste of time and money. This is one reason why everyone was - and still is - so unpreprepared for Brexit.

Apparently only the Bank of England, which is independent of Government, did any serious modelling, and as a result Carney was able to calm the markets on the Friday morning.

An effective SWOT analysis or scenario plan can only really be done when you have some idea of what you're trying to achieve.  The previous PM and Chancellor were staunchly supporting a 'remain' outcome so it makes some sense that Whitehall was largely fettered from developing plans in the event of the referendum vote going against HMG's favoured outcome because the questions of departmental ministers to enable those plans to be developed would have been along the lines of "if the UK leaves the EU, what will the government's policy objectives be?".  I can understand why the previous PM and CX might not have wanted effort expended on policy questions they couldn't/wouldn't answer.  What is rather more difficult to understand is the lack of progress in developing these policy objectives in the months since the referendum result. 

Eloise posted:

I think Brexit (actually the whole government) is becoming a pantomime... whatever an expert says, Teressa May's reply is "oh no it isn't". 

I agree that the Gov is looking more and more like a pantomime. The first joke was to declare that A.50 will be triggered before the end of March. This has set a (almost impossible) deadline for HMG to sort out what it wants and how to get it. No mean feat !

Although I consider that the 2 year negotiating period post A.50 can be put on hold or even terminated/reversed, this point has not been clarified. Given the open hostility and disrespect of creatures like JC Junckers, it would be a very useful position to be in if we could stop the 2 year process if negotiations became "difficult".

As far as I can tell, TM is heading more and more in the direction of a complete and outright disengagement from the EU and all of its peripheral elements. ie the John Redwood concept of  "offer to continue tariff-free trade, send them the letter and then leave". Unfortunately, John Redwood and Boris Johnson usually promote ideas that are compatible with the concept of "idiots" rather than "experts" and with regard to Brexit, i'm inclined to think they are playing to their usual colours. There are usually two such characters in every pantomime.

Kevin-W posted:

Dave***t posted:

It is astounding that the govt hadn't conducted (or perhaps directed the civil service to conduct) the mother of all SWOT analyses prior to the vote. 

Dave, among my contacts are several senior civil servants and I was told, both before and immediately after the vote, that Cameron and Osborne (with typical recklessness and arrogance, I might add) were so confident that the remain side would win that they instructed the various departments not to bother with designing Brexit scenarios as such exercises were a waste of time and money. This is one reason why everyone was - and still is - so unpreprepared for Brexit.

Apparently only the Bank of England, which is independent of Government, did any serious modelling, and as a result Carney was able to calm the markets on the Friday morning.

This is my understanding as well.

Trump, now Sweden, can we be sure there was no Russian involvement in the Brexit vote?

"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/11/russia-waging-information-war-in-sweden-study-finds"

yeti42 posted:

Trump, now Sweden, can we be sure there was no Russian involvement in the Brexit vote?

"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/11/russia-waging-information-war-in-sweden-study-finds"

 

Why would Putin bother when we have Farage, Boris, Gove, Redwood...........May....

Who needs enemies when you have friends like these

Well, I was feelin' sad and feelin' blue
I didn't know what in the world I was gonna do
Them Communists they was comin' around
They was in the air
They was on the ground
They wouldn't gimme no peace

So I run down most hurriedly
And joined up with the John Birch Society
I got me a secret membership card
And started off a-walkin' down the road
Yee-hoo, I'm a real John Bircher now
Look out you Commies

Now we all agree with Hitlers' views
Although he killed six million Jews
It don't matter too much that he was a Fascist
At least you can't say he was a Communist
That's to say like if you got a cold you take a shot of malaria

Well, I was lookin' everywhere for them go-darned Reds
I got up in the mornin' 'n' looked under my bed
Looked in the sink, behind the door
Looked in the glove compartment of my car
Couldn't find 'em

I was lookin' high an' low for them Reds everywhere
I was lookin' in the sink an' underneath the chair
I looked way up my chimney hole
I even looked deep inside my toilet bowl
They got away

Well, I was sittin' home alone an' started to sweat
Figured they was in my T.V. set........
Peeked behind the picture frame
Got a shock from my feet, hittin' right up in the brain
Them Reds caused it
I know they did, them hard-core ones

Well, I quit my job so I could work alone
Then I changed my name to Sherlock Holmes
Followed some clues from my detective bag
And discovered there were red stripes on the American flag...
That ol' Betty Ross

Well, I investigated all the books in the library
Ninety percent of 'em gotta be burned away
I investigated all the people that I knowed
Ninety-eight percent of them gotta go
The other two percent are fellow Birchers, just like me

Now Eisenhower, he's a Russian spy
Lincoln, Jefferson and that Roosevelt guy
To my knowledge there's just one man
That's really a true American, George Lincoln Rockwell
I know for a fact he hates Commies 'cause he picketed the movie Exodus

Well, I fin'ly started thinkin' straight
When I run outta things to investigate
Couldn't imagine doin' anything else
So now I'm sittin' home investigatin' myself
Hope I don't find out anything, hm, great God

Following a collapse of the coalition in Northern Ireland I see an election has been called for 2nd March. The convention of 'purdah' will now apply. Given divided opinion among the leading NI parties on membership of the single market there's a good argument to say that purdah should apply to invoking Art 50. I wonder whether the NI election therefore throws a spanner-in-the-works?     

I'm not entirely convinced that TM knows where NI is, let alone have any interest it its problems. I can't imagine her allowing her Brexit programme to be distracted by some seemingly insignificant "by-election" in NI.

Perhaps I should make it clear that I'm not her No.1 fan.

TM to give a big speech in the morning, parts of which have apparently been handed to the media. Among other things, she's set to claim that the govt doesn't want 'bits' of EU membership.

First clear signal that the single market & possibly customs union are on the chopping block IMO.

We'll see what she actually says, but all signs point one way at the mo... Hard Brexit it is, then.

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN ...................................

I'm enjoying the headline, "May to reject 'partial' EU membership in Brexit speech"

I don't know about you but I'm quite partial to a gin and tonic and a few olives, with friends before a special meal

C.

ynwa250505 posted:

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN ...................................

....an extended ANAGRAM of your avatar !

.....says it all, doesn't it !

ynwa250505 posted:

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN ...................................

Obviously, a reply with one aim in mind.

That is, to infuriate, irritate or ridicule the 48% or so of those who take part in this thread (if Naim owners are representative of the general public in this country) and who voted to remain. This seems to be a fairly typical response from some (thankfully not many) of the BREXIT supporters, who appear to be more interested in administering the odd cutting barb here and there, than in what BREXIT in its very many potential forms can mean. Very much the tack taken by Nigel Farage and his cohorts, and now 'brilliantly' refined by Donald Trump and his team in the States. Is this the way that you would like politics and political campaigning to go? We all know about bad losers, but do you not dislike bad winners just a little bit more?

I would have put down your post as the response of a political illiterate, who simply doesn't give a damn, had I not read one of your earlier posts:

"This is simply a divorce - and divorces come with a lot of emotion, trauma and a degree of adverse economic side-effect. The choice is one of continuing to live with somebody that makes you miserable or suffer the short/medium pains of a divorce in the hope that a better and more enjoyable life will eventually materialise. Given that we have decided to divorce, we should just get on it and stop dragging out the misery. The sun will still rise ...

Personally, I am agnostic about the whole thing, except that it is time we stopped talking and started doing. It is now a boring subject fit only for the media and chattering classes ..."

You are obviously neither illiterate nor completely politically illiterate, and you say that you are agnostic about the whole thing. Why is it then, that you appear to have no interest nor concern whatsoever about what actually happens during the BREXIT process, about the approach and policy decisions that the opportunistic group of people now in charge of our Government take or indeed what happens to those in our country who might be hugely adversely impacted by the approach, negotiating position and policy decisions that May appears to feel mandated to take on her own on behalf of the entire nation? Should they remain silent? Do they not deserve to have a say?

Are you truly just bored by the whole thing, in which case I would argue that you may indeed be politically illiterate, or do you simply blindly trust Theresa May and her team to do what is best for our country as a whole, or possibly, do you just not give a damn about what the 'losers' in this referendum feel so strongly about? Do you really think that Theresa May's approach is going to bring back the 'Unity' in the UK that she claims to strive for? Perhaps you genuinely feel that this was a victory or the common man in this country, and that those of us who voted to remain and are concerned by the future of our country are just the 'Liberal Elite' who needed to be brought down to earth.

You claim to be agnostic about the whole thing, and you may not have voted to leave; you may not have even voted in the referendum at all. However, are you not just a little concerned about the way that politics appears to be headed (in the UK and US at least), with the key campaigners in both campaigns, Nigel Farage in the UK referendum and Donald Trump in the US election, prepared to do whatever it takes to win the day. Those two players (and now friends and political allies) have adopted the stance that it really doesn't matter what they say or do, how blatant the lies they tell as long as their approach stirs up the worst in their supporters and garners support in its basest form to their cause. The really frightening thing (to those of us who are not completely socially agnostic at least)  is that this approach has been frighteningly effective, and has resulted in victory for what most pundits would have expected to be lost causes. It is pretty obvious to me that this approach to politics and political campaigning will now become the norm for extremists and mavericks (that really is too kind a word) such as Trump and Farage in the future.

Are you, and some of the supporters of BREXIT, not just a little concerned by this? Are you also agnostic about the result of the general election in the States and the effect that this might have on NATO, Europe and International Relations as a whole? Can there be anyone in the UK (apart from Nigel Farage) who delights in Donald Trump's success? Unfortunately, I'm sure there are quite a few.  

YNWA250505, I am anticipating the obvious response from you. Please disappoint me.         

Well, we now have some clarity and a vote for MPs on the final proposal so I'm sure everyone is now happy? Pretty impressed with Mrs May myself today

I'm not sure how the objectives of withdrawal from the single market can be reconciled with tariff-free trade, a customs agreement and continued free-travel across the Irish land boundary but we will see. I don't think anyone wants to see the re-imposition of customs controls on trade between the UK and the rest of the EU.   

It will be interesting to see what the other member states objectives are (and arguably more important). 

Not surprisingly a we want our cake and eat it opening gambit from PM May. Delivered very well I thought.

Given Trumps potential protectionist policies, some aimed squarely at German car manufacturers, but at the same time putting the UK at the front of the trade deal line; the US questioning NATO; and Putin having seemingly free reign, it seems like the UK couldn't have asked for a better set of circumstances to enter into negotiations. Let's see.

Good luck to her.