Bitcoin
Posted by: Kevin Richardson on 06 August 2017
I'm selling all my material possessions, equities and bonds. So... I'll be back in 5 years once I have my Statement system up and running. Until then, thanks for all the good advice.
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:I was talking mostly generally - but I guess was somewhat thinking of the SegWit2x technology - which I think technically is good. However my point was about the tribal factions that appear to swirl around the Bitcoin community perhaps because of the vested interests in secondary functions from the crypto such as mining etc rather than the crypto itself and these factions are largely absent from the Alt coins.... although Ethereum did have a notable exception..
I guess one observation is that as Bitcoin becomes somewhat bloated and relatively stilted because of the vested interests it does give a demand to Altcoins and does stop Bitcoin from becoming too dominant which is a good thing... although some would argue Bitcoin is too dominant already. I only keep a small amount of Bitcoin for 'amusement' and I use it and Ethereum as crytpo-currency as they seem relatively widely adopted for purchasing services- although Bitcoin is sloooow, however I invest using other crypto.
One thing I have learnt to do though is use market making exchanges so one can convert between certain cryptos as well cryptos and fiat at no cost... that makes a huge difference, albeit the regulatory security authentication demands get more involved when transferring this way to and from fiat.. I guess that is to stop money laundering etc which is a good thing...
On that note I was reading that high denomination fiat currency notes are significantly more encouraging to money laundering and illegal activity compared to Cryptos - don't see too much interest in reducing fiat demonisation sizes around the world - though to be fair it is one reason why the Bank of England so I understand has not increased the £50 note size.... enough of my ramblings....
Another crazy week under our belts. The price action on Bitcoin was nothing less than astounding. BTC blew past $5,000 to set a new all time high around $5,800. It now takes 4.5 ozt gold to purchase a single Bitcoin. I've heard so many crazy price predictions but almost anything seems possible at this point.
Kevin Richardson posted:count.d posted:" As for the boast... It's $3.8 million not $2.8 million.. Not that +/- a million $ will matter in 10 years"
Kevin, the $600,000 loss is correct, I typed $2.8 instead of $3.8 here. You should have instantly understood the discrepancy. Perhaps your generations would appreciate the odd $600,000 now, instead of waiting until they're 103 for the big surprise.
You don't know it will grow over the next 10 years or 10 days, this is my point. If you knew, you wouldn't lose 15%. You're the one who boasted a value increase over days, I'm addressing that issue. It doesn't make me feel better whether the price goes up or down for you. I thought the thread started off with a potential to be interesting, but ended just being a platform to boast your wealth. I don't understand the logic behind your investing, I don't understand Bitcoins and tbh, I don't understand investing for 100 years time. Best of luck anyway.
I was not "bragging" or "boasting". I was simply sharing my experience in concrete terms. I am a relatively "normal" person. [I was not born into money. I went to university and worked for everything I have in life.] I told you I bought AMAZON in the weeks following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. You called that "easy". I bought Bitcoin and 99% of all people think I'm a fool.
You were bragging a bit Kevin you didn't have to put a figure on it you could have perhaps used percentages to describe your gain and being from a 'normal' background you should know better but good luck with your investments.
Kevin Richardson posted:Another crazy week under our belts. The price action on Bitcoin was nothing less than astounding. BTC blew past $5,000 to set a new all time high around $5,800. It now takes 4.5 ozt gold to purchase a single Bitcoin. I've heard so many crazy price predictions but almost anything seems possible at this point.
Well, yes but hardly surprising with the imminent hard fork in November and the effective dividend from that hard fork, my bitcoin holding has gone up in value against fiat and some cryptos by around 40% over the last fortnight... it will almost certainly crash back down after the main fork... and the interesting game is when to jump off and go back in... and if the gains of that out weigh the dividend it may well be worth jumping off before the fork.... certainly learning to use crypto to crypto/fiat market making exchange software (you pay no fee or commission) is valuable for surfing this wave... you can of course simply hold (hodl) the coins, but that seems to be such a waste of their potential value if you are wanting to create value vs fiat.
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:Kevin Richardson posted:Another crazy week under our belts. The price action on Bitcoin was nothing less than astounding. BTC blew past $5,000 to set a new all time high around $5,800. It now takes 4.5 ozt gold to purchase a single Bitcoin. I've heard so many crazy price predictions but almost anything seems possible at this point.
Well, yes but hardly surprising with the imminent hard fork in November and the effective dividend from that hard fork, my bitcoin holding has gone up in value against fiat and some cryptos by around 40% over the last fortnight... it will almost certainly crash back down after the main fork... and the interesting game is when to jump off and go back in... and if the gains of that out weigh the dividend it may well be worth jumping off before the fork.... certainly learning to use crypto to crypto/fiat market making exchange software (you pay no fee or commission) is valuable for surfing this wave... you can of course simply hold (hodl) the coins, but that seems to be such a waste of their potential value if you are wanting to create value vs fiat.
Be careful the SegWit2x is a contentious hard fork supported by a few big players in the space. The biggest problem is that Coinbase.com has signed on to support the fork. This has the potential to screw over millions(?) of people who hold bitcoins in their wallet. Coinbase is the only place I can easily convert bitcoin to fiat.
The "Bitcoin Gold" fork is supposed to occur around October 25. [Not sure if this is really going to happen.] Sounds like most people think this will be another "free money air drop" event and are plowing into bitcoin. My take is that if everybody thinks they will profit on the new coins...... there may not be a natural market for them. It is all too risky to trade around a hard fork. [Of course as a "true believer" in the future of bitcoin, i would never sell.]
There are 10,000's of people trying to time the market. [Including huge market manipulators.] Most people fail over the long term. In a global market that trades 24x7x365, the odds are even worse than traditional markets. You might be successful however I guarantee that the process will be both physically and emotionally draining. Take a look at a 1 week chart for BTC:USD. I see nothing, from a technical analysis POV, that suggests bitcoin will not continue to appreciate over the next few weeks. BTC will eventually have a "correction" but the current momentum appears to want to push USD price well above $6,000. Perhaps we will see $10,000 BTC before any long-term pullback.......
Been following the bitcoin with interest and even more so since this thread started. 28th Sept'17 I nearly bought Bitcoin, but invested in Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets fund instead. Since then I've made 6.2%, but Bitcoin has gone up 40%. That's why no one should listen to me.
Count.d, if I am honest when it comes to my serious investments, I put then into managed tracker funds... but with crypto it’s simply fun... yes it’s a rollercoaster... I did try and play the market this last weekend, I had some automatic fill orders left in.. went to get a haircut on Saturday, came back and lost 5%...so now I don’t leave any fill orders alone when I am not monitoring the market... so basically I try and mostly save and hold... and ensure when I buy and sell I go via the GDAX exchange which can be commission free, or if you do a market taker trade is very low.... also GDAX allows you to flip between Bitcoin and Litecoin without having to go via fiat... and that is quite useful as Bitcoin has been quite static since Saturday where as Litecoin has been rollercoasting by 10% or so...
Well Bitcoin continues its seemingly unstoppable upward price movement. This week it hit $6,100 USD before sell pressure pushed back under $6,000. At the moment Coinbase is trading Bitcoin for $6,022.
The hard fork this week might prompt a small sell off but who knows. Honestly I thought $10,000 Bitcoin would take a couple of years but my guess is (if the November 18 hard fork doesn't kill the market) we may see $10,000 this year.
I made an investment into Vertcoin VTC last month. VTC is a "cheap" ($3.30) coin with potential for 1,000%+ price appreciation over the next year. [It has already taken off from September low around $0.50 to $4.57 high today.] Definitely take a look at this coin if you are investing in alt coins.
I thought Bitcoin was volatile. I looked yesterday at VTC yesterday and it was down 35% for the day, now it's up 45%! I suppose I'll just sit and watch VTC go to $1,000 and wish I'd invested in it.
count.d posted:I thought Bitcoin was volatile. I looked yesterday at VTC yesterday and it was down 35% for the day, now it's up 45%! I suppose I'll just sit and watch VTC go to $1,000 and wish I'd invested in it.
I don't know if $1,000 is in the cards for VTC but 25-50 $ could be around the corner.
count.d posted:I thought Bitcoin was volatile. I looked yesterday at VTC yesterday and it was down 35% for the day, now it's up 45%! I suppose I'll just sit and watch VTC go to $1,000 and wish I'd invested in it.
Dang.... VTC up to $5.26 right now.....
Bitcoin blew past $7,000 today to a new all time high of $7,354. This came just after CBOE announced plans to launch a bitcoin futures/options contract. This could be the beginning of the real bull run. [or it could crash tomorrow.]
count.d posted:I thought Bitcoin was volatile. I looked yesterday at VTC yesterday and it was down 35% for the day, now it's up 45%! I suppose I'll just sit and watch VTC go to $1,000 and wish I'd invested in it.
Compared to the alts (non bitcoin crypto currencies) bitcoin is the least volatile, However there seems to be a lot of new money and transfer from alts into bitcoin at the moment because of the forthcoming SegWit2x hard fork in the middle of the month... from a weeks time to the end of the month expect extreme volatility ... before it all settles down again with possibly/probably the value of alts rising again. I think the announcement of Bitcoin futures being introduced in the US one it has cleared financial regulatory checks has also spurred the market... as there is the possibility of corporate and mainstream investment money coming into cryptos which is almost entirely absent right now... we are currently still in personal early adopter phase.
I also noted one of the fastest growing areas of new technology jobs in the UK is bitcoin and block chain related.
But warning, as stated several times, cryptos are relatively volatile compared to other investment types... so unless you are a market trader it’s probably best to focus on long term trends where corrections/crashes/spikes etc kind of become less relevant.
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:I also noted one of the fastest growing areas of new technology jobs in the UK is bitcoin and block chain related.
Doesn't this kind-of contradict the notion that the true "value" of "bitcoin" is in reducing transaction costs?
You also refer to it as an "investment"? I guess it is in the sense that it has, and could continue to increase in price, but it is surely a less-than-zero-sum game. The underlying value of a "bitcoin" is, and can only ever be zero, other than it's value as a means of transaction. It can't ever (on average) be more than the a way of moving wealth, can it? Nothing about the the physical world changes as the price changes. Labour, electricity and hardware are being consumed to produce these things, of course - that's a net loss. But it's not like building a mine, a factory or a farm. It's not even like making a consumer good.
I'm not saying a lot of people haven't and won't continue to become wealthy from trading these things, but nothing of underlying value has been created. Their increased wealth must be at the expense of others'.
From the Zerohedge website:
“Over the past week, rumors have swirled that Amazon may be preparing to accept bitcoin as a form of payment, a decision which would lend immediate credibility and legitimacy to the cryptocurrency. Last week, Die Welt reported that fintech sources in Silicon Valley were suggesting that the global online retail giant could soon integrate Bitcoin as a payment option.”
winkyincanada posted:Simon-in-Suffolk posted:I also noted one of the fastest growing areas of new technology jobs in the UK is bitcoin and block chain related.
Doesn't this kind-of contradict the notion that the true "value" of "bitcoin" is in reducing transaction costs?
You also refer to it as an "investment"? I guess it is in the sense that it has, and could continue to increase in price, but it is surely a less-than-zero-sum game. The underlying value of a "bitcoin" is, and can only ever be zero, other than it's value as a means of transaction. It can't ever (on average) be more than the a way of moving wealth, can it? Nothing about the the physical world changes as the price changes. Labour, electricity and hardware are being consumed to produce these things, of course - that's a net loss. But it's not like building a mine, a factory or a farm. It's not even like making a consumer good.
I'm not saying a lot of people haven't and won't continue to become wealthy from trading these things, but nothing of underlying value has been created. Their increased wealth must be at the expense of others'.
Hi, I am not sure Bitcoin is necessarily about reducing transaction costs, however there are alt crypto currencies using different blockchain technology that focus on low transaction cost... but anyway the point was an observation, just like 25 years the smart new IT jobs were in web tech, these days are a growing proportion of them appear to be block chain and distributed ledger technologies... of which Bitcoin is one of the founding father examples.
Yes the term investment was used as currently I suspect most who are looking at Cryptos in the non IT space are investing in crypto currencies on the expectation that their value increases versus fiat and other cryptos... and of course there will be winners and losers.... but of course there is more to distributed ledger technology that simple investment vehicles... the technology has many uses... and avenues ... and one of the areas I am intersted in in my professional world is the use of block chain technology transactions and cryptocurrency to identify and trace crime and cyber crime... it’s fascinating to see in action.. and is opposite to the often held public view of Cryptos being ideal for money laundering because it’s mistakenly perceived non traceability ... albeit some specialised crypto unlike Bitcoin are harder if at all possible to trace but being rarer reduces their anonymity.
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:count.d posted:I thought Bitcoin was volatile. I looked yesterday at VTC yesterday and it was down 35% for the day, now it's up 45%! I suppose I'll just sit and watch VTC go to $1,000 and wish I'd invested in it.
Compared to the alts (non bitcoin crypto currencies) bitcoin is the least volatile, However there seems to be a lot of new money and transfer from alts into bitcoin at the moment because of the forthcoming SegWit2x hard fork in the middle of the month... from a weeks time to the end of the month expect extreme volatility ... before it all settles down again with possibly/probably the value of alts rising again. I think the announcement of Bitcoin futures being introduced in the US one it has cleared financial regulatory checks has also spurred the market... as there is the possibility of corporate and mainstream investment money coming into cryptos which is almost entirely absent right now... we are currently still in personal early adopter phase.
I also noted one of the fastest growing areas of new technology jobs in the UK is bitcoin and block chain related.
But warning, as stated several times, cryptos are relatively volatile compared to other investment types... so unless you are a market trader it’s probably best to focus on long term trends where corrections/crashes/spikes etc kind of become less relevant.
SegWit2x futures are trading over $2,000 right now. The market is saying a single Bitcoin is worth $9,500. BitcoinCash has gone up 50%+ in the last week indicating some belief that the SewWit2x fork may have negative impact on Bitcoin. The only safe bet is to keep all the forked coins so you make sure you hold the winner.
In the simplest and safest terms, what is the best way to buy VTC? Is it to open an account with Coinbase, buy Bitcoin and then buy VTC? Then how do you store it safely (in simplest terms :-))
And diversify some value into alt coins like now as after the fork there will be a lot of value flowing back into the alts... as I said above it will be a volatile time after the Bitcoin segwit2x fork for a week or so...
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:winkyincanada posted:Simon-in-Suffolk posted:I also noted one of the fastest growing areas of new technology jobs in the UK is bitcoin and block chain related.
Doesn't this kind-of contradict the notion that the true "value" of "bitcoin" is in reducing transaction costs?
You also refer to it as an "investment"? I guess it is in the sense that it has, and could continue to increase in price, but it is surely a less-than-zero-sum game. The underlying value of a "bitcoin" is, and can only ever be zero, other than it's value as a means of transaction. It can't ever (on average) be more than the a way of moving wealth, can it? Nothing about the the physical world changes as the price changes. Labour, electricity and hardware are being consumed to produce these things, of course - that's a net loss. But it's not like building a mine, a factory or a farm. It's not even like making a consumer good.
I'm not saying a lot of people haven't and won't continue to become wealthy from trading these things, but nothing of underlying value has been created. Their increased wealth must be at the expense of others'.
Hi, I am not sure Bitcoin is necessarily about reducing transaction costs, however there are alt crypto currencies using different blockchain technology that focus on low transaction cost... but anyway the point was an observation, just like 25 years the smart new IT jobs were in web tech, these days are a growing proportion of them appear to be block chain and distributed ledger technologies... of which Bitcoin is one of the founding father examples.
Yes the term investment was used as currently I suspect most who are looking at Cryptos in the non IT space are investing in crypto currencies on the expectation that their value increases versus fiat and other cryptos... and of course there will be winners and losers.... but of course there is more to distributed ledger technology that simple investment vehicles... the technology has many uses... and avenues ... and one of the areas I am intersted in in my professional world is the use of block chain technology transactions and cryptocurrency to identify and trace crime and cyber crime... it’s fascinating to see in action.. and is opposite to the often held public view of Cryptos being ideal for money laundering because it’s mistakenly perceived non traceability ... albeit some specialised crypto unlike Bitcoin are harder if at all possible to trace but being rarer reduces their anonymity.
The early idea behind bitcoin was a "decentralized trust-less currency for payments with low fees [relative to Western Union / credit cards]". Today the future "purpose" of bitcoin is hotly debated with two major ideas: 1. Fast transactional currency with low fees 2. Store of value. The SegWit2x camp wants big blocks to increase transaction speed -> decreased fees. The "core dev" team / most parties I follow are not supporting the 2x block size since scaling issues will be mitigated with the lightning network.
This creates some confusion/uncertainty for people considering entering the market for the first time. What should they buy? Which one will win? Best bet is to buy BTC/BCH 1:1. This will give you equal number of 2x coins on Nov 18.
Which of the 3 will win? Not sure but each has major issues. All 3 increase the centralization which is really antithetical to the cryptocurrency ethos.
There is one small coin that offers ASIC resistance --> forced decentralization. That coin is Vertcoin VTC. VTC has to make up a lot of ground in terms of network strength to compete with LTC / BTC but it is the only coin currently on my radar that has potential to take market cap / future adoption away from BTC/LTC.
My ideal portfolio for a novice/passive investor BTC,BCH,LTC,VTC hold BTC:BCH 1:1 LTC:BTC 20:1 VTC:BTC 1,000:1
count.d posted:In the simplest and safest terms, what is the best way to buy VTC? Is it to open an account with Coinbase, buy Bitcoin and then buy VTC? Then how do you store it safely (in simplest terms :-))
My offline wallet is TREZOR, but currently doesn’t support Vertcoin.. so I can’t help there, sorry. As far as an easyway to buy Bitcoin then Coinbase is really straightforward, but you pay for the convenience in relatively high fees... an alternate once you have a validated Coinbase account is to easily extend it to a Coinbase/Gdax account... here the fees are a lot smaller, and if you buy or sell using market making orders it’s free.... it’s just it’s a little more involved to buy /sell this way..but remember with bitcoin you will pay relatively high blockchain transaction costs when you send value to another user wallet.
count.d posted:In the simplest and safest terms, what is the best way to buy VTC? Is it to open an account with Coinbase, buy Bitcoin and then buy VTC? Then how do you store it safely (in simplest terms :-))
Are you in UK or USA? If so... Coinbase to buy BTC... Bittrex.com to trade BTC for VTC.
VTC has "crashed" down to my buy price around $3.00. You can easily store VTC on a Ledger Nano S hardware wallet [available from Amazon for about $100] or the VTC wallet/node [I use this and it only takes maybe 20 GB(?) space and a few % cpu] available on the VTC website.
Just be prepared for volatility and risk of significant short-mid term depreciation. The Bitcoin strength has caused alt coins to sell off. If you do invest.... make sure you buy small amounts on a regular basis [dollar cost average]. This will give you a close approximation to the average price of the coin over the period.
VTC is a strong contender for "top 3 status" but no guarantee. [Obviously this risk is offset by the possible massive reward]
winkyincanada posted:Simon-in-Suffolk posted:I also noted one of the fastest growing areas of new technology jobs in the UK is bitcoin and block chain related.
Doesn't this kind-of contradict the notion that the true "value" of "bitcoin" is in reducing transaction costs?
You also refer to it as an "investment"? I guess it is in the sense that it has, and could continue to increase in price, but it is surely a less-than-zero-sum game. The underlying value of a "bitcoin" is, and can only ever be zero, other than it's value as a means of transaction. It can't ever (on average) be more than the a way of moving wealth, can it? Nothing about the the physical world changes as the price changes. Labour, electricity and hardware are being consumed to produce these things, of course - that's a net loss. But it's not like building a mine, a factory or a farm. It's not even like making a consumer good.
I'm not saying a lot of people haven't and won't continue to become wealthy from trading these things, but nothing of underlying value has been created. Their increased wealth must be at the expense of others'.
This takes the traditional approach to valuation that says "Bitcoin is gaining in value". Many people are looking at it from the POV that "USD/GBP/EUR are losing value".
Thanks Simon & Kevin, I need to digest this info. Yes UK Kevin and I've watched VTC this week. Back to $3 from nearly $6.