Brexit or Bust !!

Halloween Man posted:.

I would ask why are Brexiteers so scared of a second referendum?

Very simple: they are terrified because the truly democratic process of finding out what the people want, present tense, would reveal the true answer: And they know in their hearts that the majority would vote against Brexit now that the lies and deceit of the refendum campaigns have been exposed and dispelled and there is much greater understanding of what actually Brexit will entail, whether the deal that has been agreed with EU or no deal and a ‘hard’ Brexit. All they say about democracy is smoke and mirrors to try to stop true democracy, knowing full well, but of course unable to admit it, that a confirmatory referendum, as well as democratic, would be a wise and empowering thing for Government to do.

Next week could be a good 'un. 

I have heard a lot of business types on R4 this week saying they are in favour of TMs (soft brexit) deal.

So will BJ and co' vote in the best interests of the economy and support the Government or be guided by their complete abhorrence of the EU to wreck her deal?

Similarly will the Labour MPs who are in favour of a soft brexit vote with the government (ie what they believe in) or will they vote against as Corbyn wants to try to force a GE?

Like I said should be a good watch.

Ray

rodwsmith posted:

When did ‘elite’ change from compliment to insult?

(Same time as ‘expert’ did I guess.)

It didn't Rod.

"Elite" as a description of a group that is superior or extraordinary in terms of its abilities - eg "elite army unit" or  "Einstein belongs to an elite group of scientists that also includes Newton" -  is still seen as positive. It always has been.

However, English being the language that it is, there has always been another, more pejorative use of the word "elite" as a description of the group that rules, or is seen to rule, society; usually this group is seen as out of touch with, or contemptuous of, the ordinary man in the street.

Sometimes these elites are figments of the populist or rabble-rousing politician's imagination; often they are not. It would be very difficult to argue that there is not a group of elites (I see multiple elites rather than one elite) that shapes the lives of ordinary people here in the West: bankers and financiers; the morally bamkrupt crew that swans around Davos once a year; media owners; tech tycoons; politicians and policymakers; the super-rich; the list goes on, and includes Juncker, Madelson and all the others who have grown fat on the taxpayer tit in Brussels.

The old elites - monarchs, aristos, landowners, courtiers, the City and the professions - are either gone or are going. Getting rid of a tyrannical autocrat has always been difficult, but not impossible - as the ghosts of the likes of Nicholas II, Luis XIV, Charles I, Napoleon III, et al would attest.

Getting rid of the likes of Juncker, Zuckerberg, Goldman Sachs, Blair, Bezos, the Kochs, Macron, Murdoch, the Davos, Bayerischer Hof and Bilderberg sets and all the others is going to be much more difficult.

But they need to go, or at the very least adapt. The elite classes have nothing of substance to say, no solutions to the problems of advanced capitalist societies and of a wider world in turmoil, except to prescribe more of the same old neoliberal guff. This is why they are loathed.

ynwa250505 posted:

Halloween Man posted:

It's not the EU that votes in a second referendum, it's the people. Voters are perfectly entitled to vote the same way as the first referendum or change their mind. It's up to them and is entirely democratic. We all make mistakes and we all change our mind on second thought. On something as serious as Brexit it won't do any harm to ask the people if they are sure they want out. Parliament can't decide and people are now better informed about Brexit and its consequences. In my opinion it would be undemocratic in these circumstances for the Government to drag us out of the EU regardless.

I would ask why are Brexiteers so scared of a second referendum?

Nobody is being dragged anywhere - the electorate voted to leave in a referendum that had been overwhelmingly authorised by Parliament. The referendum result (and therefore our departure) was also overwhelmingly supported by Parliament. So there is absolutely no democratic deficit there whatsoever.

A second referendum? There is no need for one - we’ve already been through a lengthy democratic process, which Parliament has upheld. “We want another referendum” is simply a device that you (et al) are using in an effort to overturn the democratic decision of the electorate because you simply don’t agree with the outcome! So, in the grandest of grand EU traditions, you are determined to exact revenge and make us vote again (and again?) until you get the result you want. Democracy indeed!

You did not address the argument that Parliament is unable to agree on the type of Brexit it wants, if any, and also the fact that the public are now better informed of the consequences of no deal, or TM's deal. Both of which are likely to result in the break up of the UK with a united Ireland and independent Scotland. We may agree to disagree but for me all of these issues justify a second referendum.

TM pressing ahead with Brexit regardless may well be legal and arguably democratic, as would a second referendum. It's about making the right decision. A second referendum imho would be the most democratic and right decision at this point.

Halloween Man posted:

It's not the EU that votes in a second referendum, it's the people. Voters are perfectly entitled to vote the same way as the first referendum or change their mind. It's up to them and is entirely democratic. We all make mistakes and we all change our mind on second thought. On something as serious as Brexit it won't do any harm to ask the people if they are sure they want out. Parliament can't decide and people are now better informed about Brexit and its consequences. In my opinion it would be undemocratic in these circumstances for the Government to drag us out of the EU regardless.

I would ask why are Brexiteers so scared of a second referendum?

I think it's pretty obvious. 

As an aside, Chris Grayling has just highlighted a potential scenario that I have been pondering for some time. That is - what happens next in the event that any one of the potential outcomes of the Brexit process becomes reality.

The potential outcomes are: A) Britain leaves the EU without a deal B) Britain leaves the EU and adopts May's deal or something very similar, C) Brexit is delayed in order to attempt to reach a new deal with the EU,  D) Brexit is delayed and a second referendum is triggered - the 'Leave' campaign wins, and finally E) Brexit is delayed, a second referendum is held and this time round the 'Remain' campaign wins.

Up until the UK leaves or decides to stay following a second referendum, both sides will continue to fight (metaphorically) tooth and nail in order to win the final outcome - that goes without saying. However, once the final outcome has been attained, what I believe will happen is potentially very disturbing, and a reflection of the rise in, and a tolerance of, extreme right wing views in our society.

My belief, and it reflects my own personal view of the divisive and wholly unnecessary debacle that is Brexit is:

- in the event that the UK actually leaves the EU, whether that be in March or as a result of a second referendum, then the vast majority of the 'remain' camp will resign themselves to the fact that the UK has left, and will join with others on the 'Leave' side to focus their attention on what needs to be done in order to mitigate the many potential issues and problems that will follow. Unfortunately, there is likely to be a period in which the most unsavoury parts of the Brexit side will gleefully direct the Jeremy Clarkson taunt of 'Losers' in the direction of those of us in the 'remain' side. This will be extremely divisive in the short term, but thankfully is likely to soon pass. The UK electorate will have lurched somewhat to the right from a position that is already pretty far to the right, but hopefully the ultra right wing extremists will simply fade into the background over time and will be marginalised.    

- in the event that a second referendum is triggered and this time round the 'Remain' vote wins, then the vast majority of the 'remain' camp will simply breath a sigh of relief and focus their attention on attempting to build bridges - in respect of both the British and European political spectrum. I sincerely hope and expect that there would be little of the 'we won, you lost' rhetoric that I expect would follow a Brexit win. I believe that a majority of those on the Brexit side would obviously be disappointed in the result, but would respect the result of a second referendum and focus their on building political bridges within the UK.

Unfortunately, I also believe that a second referendum defeat for Brexit would result in a further rise in confidence amongst the followers of extreme right wing groups in the UK, and a significant rise in recruitment to these groups. I suspect that these groups will also turn more and more to outright violence, and will become much more vocal in respect of their racist and xenophobic views. You only have to consider at individuals like Tommy Robinson and James Goddard and rhetoric such as "if you want a war, we will give you a war", or "there can be no peace while Islam exists in the West" in order to be extremely worried about what may follow.  I really do hope I am wrong. I don't often agree with the views expressed by Chris Grayling, but in this instance I fear that he may be correct. I had thought that far right groups such as the BNP had been completely marginalised, but I fear there will be a dramatic resurgence.       

Kevin-W posted:

However, English being the language that it is, there has always been another, more pejorative use of the word "elite" as a description of the group that rules, or is seen to rule, society; usually this group is seen as out of touch with, or contemptuous of, the ordinary man in the street.

Sometimes these elites are figments of the populist or rabble-rousing politician's imagination; often they are not. It would be very difficult to argue that there is not a group of elites (I see multiple elites rather than one elite) that shapes the lives of ordinary people here in the West: bankers and financiers; the morally bamkrupt crew that swans around Davos once a year; media owners; tech tycoons; politicians and policymakers; the super-rich; the list goes on, and includes Juncker, Madelson and all the others who have grown fat on the taxpayer tit in Brussels.

The old elites - monarchs, aristos, landowners, courtiers, the City and the professions - are either gone or are going. Getting rid of a tyrannical autocrat has always been difficult, but not impossible - as the ghosts of the likes of Nicholas II, Luis XIV, Charles I, Napoleon III, et al would attest.

Getting rid of the likes of Juncker, Zuckerberg, Goldman Sachs, Blair, Bezos, the Kochs, Macron, Murdoch, the Davos, Bayerischer Hof and Bilderberg sets and all the others is going to be much more difficult.

But they need to go, or at the very least adapt. The elite classes have nothing of substance to say, no solutions to the problems of advanced capitalist societies and of a wider world in turmoil, except to prescribe more of the same old neoliberal guff. This is why they are loathed.

 

 

The leading Brexit campaigners also fit that description of "elite", as do the majority of the other useless politicians in Westminster. Getting rid of them all would be a good thing as they only have their own interests at heart, not the good of the country as a whole.

 N.B. I am not advocating anarchy, nor a French or Russian Revolution style solution!

Hmack, if 20th century history taught us anything then we should know not to appease the far right and to make the right decisions, no matter how tough.

Halloween Man posted:

Hmack, if 20th century history taught us anything then we should know not to appease the far right and to make the right decisions, no matter how tough.

I agree!

If that means a second referendum upsetting right wing extremists then so be it. They have no justification for disturbing the peace or terror as they have the same equal vote as you or me.

Hmack posted:

Unfortunately, there is likely to be a period in which the most unsavoury parts of the Brexit side will gleefully direct the Jeremy Clarkson taunt of 'Losers' in the direction of those of us in the 'remain' side.

Ironic you mention Clarkson, who campaigned for Remain and even did a video for the Bremaniac's bible, The Groaniad.

Halloween Man posted:

If that means a second referendum upsetting right wing extremists then so be it. They have no justification for disturbing the peace or terror as they have the same equal vote as you or me.

I don't think that a second referendum would necessarily cause the rise of right-wing extremism, because the far right is by and large marginalised in this country (unlike in Hungary, France, Italy, Andalucia, Sweden, Holland, Germany, Czech, Poland...).

But what it will almost certainly do is drive a deeper wedge between the plebs and the political classes and cause a further erosion of trust between politicians and the electorate. This in turn will in all probability lead to disengagement  from the political process and a democratic deficit - disastrous in my view and only of benefit to corporatists and globalists and their courtiers.

Kevin-W posted:

Hmack posted:

Unfortunately, there is likely to be a period in which the most unsavoury parts of the Brexit side will gleefully direct the Jeremy Clarkson taunt of 'Losers' in the direction of those of us in the 'remain' side.

Ironic you mention Clarkson, who campaigned for Remain and even did a video for the Bremaniac's bible, The Groaniad.

Yes - that is indeed ironic.

So unfortunately, there may be at least one on the remain side aiming a 'loser' taunt at the Brexit side.  

Kevin-W posted:

Halloween Man posted:

If that means a second referendum upsetting right wing extremists then so be it. They have no justification for disturbing the peace or terror as they have the same equal vote as you or me.

I don't think that a second referendum would necessarily cause the rise of right-wing extremism, because the far right is by and large marginalised in this country (unlike in Hungary, France, Italy, Andalucia, Sweden, Holland, Germany, Czech, Poland...).

But what it will almost certainly do is drive a deeper wedge between the plebs and the political classes and cause a further erosion of trust between politicians and the electorate. This in turn will in all probability lead to disengagement  from the political process and a democratic deficit - disastrous in my view and only of benefit to corporatists and globalists and their courtiers.

'Plebs' and 'political classes', 'globalists', 'elitists' - who cares? Meaningless terms, or at least terms that can be misconstrued or misused, but I do hope you are right in respect of right-wing extremism.

On the other hand, a second referendum may well enthuse and invigorate younger voters who by and large are in favour of remaining in the EU. This was certainly the case in the recent referendum on Scottish Independence. The demographics from the last referendum have shown that it was the older folks amongst us (and unfortunately I have to admit that I now fall in that demographic group) whose votes swayed the referendum vote in favour of Brexit. This demographic group will become more and more irrelevant as time goes on. Let the younger generation have a say and become engaged with politics in this country.    

Kevin-W posted:

 

But what it will almost certainly do is drive a deeper wedge between the plebs and the political classes and cause a further erosion of trust between politicians and the electorate. This in turn will in all probability lead to disengagement  from the political process and a democratic deficit - disastrous in my view and only of benefit to corporatists and globalists and their courtiers.

You don’t think the awful machinations of the political ‘elite’ in the UK haven’t already done that extremely effectively?  

The comments on this thread are truly shocking. The result was to leave the EU. You really need to get over yourselves, stop deliberately wishing Brexit to fail and change your attitudes. If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.

Kevin-W posted:

Halloween Man posted:

If that means a second referendum upsetting right wing extremists then so be it. They have no justification for disturbing the peace or terror as they have the same equal vote as you or me.

I don't think that a second referendum would necessarily cause the rise of right-wing extremism, because the far right is by and large marginalised in this country (unlike in Hungary, France, Italy, Andalucia, Sweden, Holland, Germany, Czech, Poland...).

But what it will almost certainly do is drive a deeper wedge between the plebs and the political classes and cause a further erosion of trust between politicians and the electorate. This in turn will in all probability lead to disengagement  from the political process and a democratic deficit - disastrous in my view and only of benefit to corporatists and globalists and their courtiers.

I fear you maybe right, Kevin.  Although I'm not a fan of Corbyn, I have been pleased at how he has (or had) seemingly engaged a raft of young voters who were previously disengaged from politics.  It would be a pity if the outcome of Brexit, whatever that is, also results in a further disengagement by parts of society.   

From those who advocate "Leave" I should be interested to read which option they prefer.  If I understand correctly, we have:

- TM's proposed deal

- No deal (a.k.a. "Crash-out")

- Canada ++ (or something like that)

- Norway option (or something like that)

I ask because, of the people I know in favour of leaving, none offer any comment other than "We should just get on with it" ... as if that's the solution to all our troubles.  It should be obvious that we can't "Leave" under two or more of those options ... so: which is the preferred one?

Or should I list a fifth option: Who cares how we leave, we just want to be free of the EU?

Mitch

[@mention:23389351210890912] mentions above the right wing activists. The BBC is reporting that James Goddard has been arrested in relation to the Anna Soubry incident earlier this week. Good, I say. 

Adam Meredith posted:

Drewy posted:

If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.

What do you gain if May's deal gets through?

If we crash out of the EU with May's deal - will 'you' leave voters accept the blame. Or moan about the deal you are now pushing?

How do you deal with the Irish border?

Shall I answer that one knowing there’s no winning the argument on this forum? No I don’t think i’ll bother. Whatever the outcome I hope the remainers are pleased with themselves.

Drewy posted:

The comments on this thread are truly shocking. The result was to leave the EU. You really need to get over yourselves, stop deliberately wishing Brexit to fail and change your attitudes. If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.

 I don't know whether to laugh or cry at that proposition. It sounds like the sort of desperate spin that some politicians try when they've screwed something up and want to move the blame from themselves.  

Well, i'm still not sure what the options might be if (and I still say if) TM looses next week's vote to leave with her "Deal".

I am guessing Parliament will reject the "first" option, ie to leave without a Deal ?

Will somebody then propose a motion to Defer Article 50. If so will Parliament vote in favour. If so will the EU accept (or have to accept) this ?

Will somebody propose to withdraw Article 50. Ditto re parliament and Ditto re the EU ?

Will Corbyn propose a vote of no-confidence in the Gov, and somehow force a GE ?

If we defer or withdraw Art50, what then ?

jlarsson posted:

None of these refrendums were run by the EU.

The EU is there for you. They are sitting there just waiting for Britain to manage to make a decision (for once). Then you are out.

I agree that a second vote in Brexit does not make sense. All the arguments was there in the first referendum. And the english nationalism and protectionism at the bottom of this seem as strong as ever. The mess is in the HoC so a general election would be more appropriate.

I don't know how closely you watched the pre-referendum news etc. in the UK but I fundamentally disagree with your point that a second referendum makes no sense.  The arguments may have been there in the first referendum but many of them (on both sides) have been exposed as little more than lies.

Further, while there is a mess in the HoC a general election will solve nothing.  We'll end up with two parties trying to appeal to the brexiteer vote that they feel they need to win, so there won't be a choice since with our ridiculous FPTP system many would not vote for a minority party since they would view it as a wasted vote and would instead vote 'tactically'- i.e. vote against who they don't want to win.

(Apologies to any Scots... for many reasons... but also because the above point is less relevant to you).

The only honest thing to do is to check the will of the people 2019.  The will of the people (who could be bothered to vote) in 2016 was to leave, we've spent the last 30 months working that through and are close to being able to present the withdrawl deal (or no deal) and the likely future trading relationship.

I see only two reasons to argue against a further referendum:
1) Leave won in 2016 and Cameron said there wouldn't be another referendum for a generation.
Cameron's gone, his government is gone and a past government cannot bind a future government.

2) A further referendum will drive division.
The first referendum did that.  A further referendum will cause a spike of division but don't expect those of us on the remain side to go away, the divisions will still be there and as our economy tanks will be further exposed.

Finally, on a referendum- if one is conducted fairly and there is no cheating this time then I'll accept the result and if it's leave I won't be involved in campaigns against leaving.  Once we have left though, I will be involved in campaigns to re-join- for the sake of my Children and Country.

Drewy posted:

The comments on this thread are truly shocking. The result was to leave the EU. You really need to get over yourselves, stop deliberately wishing Brexit to fail and change your attitudes. If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.

I don't wish for Brexit to fail. Although if it goes through it will fail  the people of the UK in every way imaginable. It will be the biggest fail of rational and humane thinking by the UK in my lifetime. It will even fail the racists. Immigration levels won't much change (although the origin of the immigrants might shift - as it always does over time), and the racists will still have to interact with people who make them angry. Brexit doesn't cure that. They need to look inside themselves for the cure.

I wish for Brexit to be called off. It is the only rational solution.

Don Atkinson posted:

Well, i'm still not sure what the options might be if (and I still say if) TM looses next week's vote to leave with her "Deal".

I am guessing Parliament will reject the "first" option, ie to leave without a Deal ?

Will somebody then propose a motion to Defer Article 50. If so will Parliament vote in favour. If so will the EU accept (or have to accept) this ?

Will somebody propose to withdraw Article 50. Ditto re parliament and Ditto re the EU ?

Will Corbyn propose a vote of no-confidence in the Gov, and somehow force a GE ?

If we defer or withdraw Art50, what then ?

If it fails then the Government has 3 days to come back with another proposal.  My guess is that this would be something more acceptable to Labour (add some form of customs union), but it's just a guess.  I would also suspect that the attempt would be to promise something and then not deliver it since they have form in doing this to their own (the Grieve amendment in the summer or so)

I'm not convinced May's deal will fail to be accepted- I think the 'no deal' posturing *might* move a few to support it and possibly with a bit of last-minute rewording from the EU it may get DUP/Labour's acceptance... maybe...

But *if* we get to votes on deferring A50- this would need the EU27"s approval and I think this will only be forthcoming if something changes in the UK- e.g. a further referendum or a general election.  Otherwise, why bother... we'll just go through the same cycle again.

If we had a vote to cancel A50, this wouldn't need the EU27 approval- if we move swiftly we can do this.   However if we don't move swiftly I see every risk that the EU tries to plug this and stop the UK using this mechanism *unless* we truely make a decision to remain.

Drewy posted:

The comments on this thread are truly shocking. The result was to leave the EU. You really need to get over yourselves, stop deliberately wishing Brexit to fail and change your attitudes. If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.

I seem to recall that at least some of your fellow Brexit supporters on this forum have stated that the UK should just leave the EU, without any deal. Your attempt to blame the consequences equally on those who do not wish leave the EU is simply bizarre. 

However, whilst “remainers” clearly have no responsibility fot Britain “crashing out and going tits up” as you put it,  my expectation is that they are likely to make every possible effort to aid recovery from that catastrophic state. Certainly I will should that happen - and I shall refrain from saying “told you so” when the negative effects of Brexit sweep the country and many people suffer significant consequences, because if those who pushed for Brexit have a conscience it will weigh heavily enough on you anyway, and if you don’t you won’t care.