Brexit or Bust !!
Posted by: Don Atkinson on 01 January 2019
With only 88 days to go before the biggest collective decision that most of us here in the UK will ever experience....... what will happen !!
My prediction is :
TM with press her current deal + "assurance" about the "NI Backstop" and put it to a Parliamentary vote
Parliament will reject this deal/assurance, then
Parliament will reject leaving without a deal
Then Either :-
A Motion of No-Confidence will be approved and a General Election will follow or
A Motion to Withdraw Article 50 will be approved and we will start over. (I rather like this idea)
One final possibility .....
The Gov friggs about for 88 days and we don't wake up until 30th March .... ie we SLEEPWALK out of the EU
Drewy posted:The comments on this thread are truly shocking. The result was to leave the EU. You really need to get over yourselves, stop deliberately wishing Brexit to fail and change your attitudes. If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.
Bit of a stretch to say remainers will be to blame as much as those who voted for leave. Those people I know who voted to leave want are far less worried about leaving without a deal than remainers. And probably the most shocking post on here is yours.
Kevin-W posted:rodwsmith posted:When did ‘elite’ change from compliment to insult?
(Same time as ‘expert’ did I guess.)
It didn't Rod.
"Elite" as a description of a group that is superior or extraordinary in terms of its abilities - eg "elite army unit" or "Einstein belongs to an elite group of scientists that also includes Newton" - is still seen as positive. It always has been.
However, English being the language that it is, there has always been another, more pejorative use of the word "elite" as a description of the group that rules, or is seen to rule, society; usually this group is seen as out of touch with, or contemptuous of, the ordinary man in the street.
Sometimes these elites are figments of the populist or rabble-rousing politician's imagination; often they are not. It would be very difficult to argue that there is not a group of elites (I see multiple elites rather than one elite) that shapes the lives of ordinary people here in the West: bankers and financiers; the morally bamkrupt crew that swans around Davos once a year; media owners; tech tycoons; politicians and policymakers; the super-rich; the list goes on, and includes Juncker, Madelson and all the others who have grown fat on the taxpayer tit in Brussels.
The old elites - monarchs, aristos, landowners, courtiers, the City and the professions - are either gone or are going. Getting rid of a tyrannical autocrat has always been difficult, but not impossible - as the ghosts of the likes of Nicholas II, Luis XIV, Charles I, Napoleon III, et al would attest.
Getting rid of the likes of Juncker, Zuckerberg, Goldman Sachs, Blair, Bezos, the Kochs, Macron, Murdoch, the Davos, Bayerischer Hof and Bilderberg sets and all the others is going to be much more difficult.
But they need to go, or at the very least adapt. The elite classes have nothing of substance to say, no solutions to the problems of advanced capitalist societies and of a wider world in turmoil, except to prescribe more of the same old neoliberal guff. This is why they are loathed.
That is ok but obviously your elite may be different to mine of course. The idea of a 'bad' elite now seems, for a lot of people. to extend a little too far, I recently took issue with someone who actually believes the professional in the NHS are only working in their self interest and to engage with them will do harm.
Drewy posted:The comments on this thread are truly shocking. The result was to leave the EU. You really need to get over yourselves, stop deliberately wishing Brexit to fail and change your attitudes. If we crash out of the EU with no deal and it all goes tits up you will remainers will be just as much to blame as the Brexit voters.
Ah I get it now! It’s all so blindingly obvious. When brexit goes wrong it will all be the fault of the people who voted remain. Of course it will! Nurse!!
Mike Hughes posted:
Interesting article. My friends in the North are bucking the trend but they live in Morecambe and are aware that European funding helped to develop their town.
I tend to approach Brexit from the 'skin in the game' argument: to my mind the age profile of the Brexit vote means that the price for Brexit would not be, in the main, paid for by those that voted for it.
Boris786 posted:Mike Hughes posted:Interesting article. My friends in the North are bucking the trend but they live in Morecambe and are aware that European funding helped to develop their town.
I tend to approach Brexit from the 'skin in the game' argument: to my mind the age profile of the Brexit vote means that the price for Brexit would not be, in the main, paid for by those that voted for it.
Agree and they will also be the first to complain when their pensions don’t go as far!
Mike Hughes posted:
The article doesn’t mention EU funding received for deprived parts of the UK. Yep
Mike Hughes posted:
I don’t understand the article - what is it saying? Re the conclusion, “the option that could transform Britain” - what is that referring to?
Adam Meredith posted:rodwsmith posted:Ah I get it now! It’s all so blindingly obvious. When brexit goes wrong it will all be the fault of the people who voted remain. Of course it will! Nurse!!"The buck stops with everybody."
Exactly. The remainers are causing such a fuss they might aswell have voted to leave.
Drewy posted:Exactly. The remainers are causing such a fuss they might aswell have voted to leave.
Are you Berlin Fritz?
ynwa250505 posted:Mike Hughes posted:I don’t understand the article - what is it saying? Re the conclusion, “the option that could transform Britain” - what is that referring to?
By ‘the option that could transform Britain’ he is referring to a general election.
rodwsmith posted:Drewy posted:Exactly. The remainers are causing such a fuss they might aswell have voted to leave.
Are you Berlin Fritz?
No
hungryhalibut posted:ynwa250505 posted:Mike Hughes posted:I don’t understand the article - what is it saying? Re the conclusion, “the option that could transform Britain” - what is that referring to?
By ‘the option that could transform Britain’ he is referring to a general election.
Ok thx
I was interested in Corbyn's interview on this morning's Andrew Marr show. It wasn't so much the substance of what he said, which revealed nothing new, but his mood. I've always felt he was a little awkward in interviews. Not today. It was the most relaxed I've seen him. Even playful at times. Perhaps he has got a game-plan for when the PM's draft exit deal gets voted down on Tuesday.
Adam Meredith posted:Drewy posted:Adam Meredith posted:rodwsmith posted:Ah I get it now! It’s all so blindingly obvious. When brexit goes wrong it will all be the fault of the people who voted remain. Of course it will! Nurse!!"The buck stops with everybody."
Exactly. The remainers are causing such a fuss they might aswell have voted to leave.
I shouldn't have assumed knowledge of events outside these shores nor a working understanding of irony.
One US president actually took responsibility for his actions - "The buck stops here*"
Another holder of the office, D. Trump, abrogates any responsibility (as you will if the outcome is less rosy than you seem to believe) - "The buck stops with everyone"
*The sign "The Buck Stops Here" that was on President Truman's desk in his White House office was made in the Federal Reformatory at El Reno, Oklahoma. Fred A. Canfil, then United States Marshal for the Western District of Missouri and a friend of Mr. Truman, saw a similar sign while visiting the Reformatory and asked the Warden if a sign like it could be made for President Truman. The sign was made and mailed to the President on October 2, 1945.
The saying "the buck stops here" derives from the slang expression "pass the buck" which means passing the responsibility on to someone else.Which you seem happy to do.
Whatever.
Stephen packer posted:jlarsson posted:None of these refrendums were run by the EU.
The EU is there for you. They are sitting there just waiting for Britain to manage to make a decision (for once). Then you are out.
I agree that a second vote in Brexit does not make sense. All the arguments was there in the first referendum. And the english nationalism and protectionism at the bottom of this seem as strong as ever. The mess is in the HoC so a general election would be more appropriate.
I don't know how closely you watched the pre-referendum news etc. in the UK but I fundamentally disagree with your point that a second referendum makes no sense. The arguments may have been there in the first referendum but many of them (on both sides) have been exposed as little more than lies.
....
The only honest thing to do is to check the will of the people 2019. The will of the people (who could be bothered to vote) in 2016 was to leave, we've spent the last 30 months working that through and are close to being able to present the withdrawl deal (or no deal) and the likely future trading relationship..
I was in London on a software project first half of 2016 but I dont claim to have understood everything going on around me. Still the result of the referendum was accepted by both government and parliament right?
My second vote objection is based on the time claimed to be needed for a second vote. The EU said the A50 may be extended a few weeks or so. But absolutely not interfer with the EU elections. And I agree with that - the voters need to know the context they are voting in.
The suggestion I heard from the EU if the UK need longer time was to exit in march and then (if so wished) re-apply and the application would be fast-tracked. But that surely does not apply in case of a crash-out.
The UK can remain, crash-out or go for mays deal. From the outside this has been pretty clear for months.
jlarsson posted:I was in London on a software project first half of 2016 but I dont claim to have understood everything going on around me.
Where you working in 'Silicon Roundabout'
As a wise man once said (and then forgot): -
Corbyn is a hard line socialist. He would happily make everyone equally poor as has happened in Venezuela.
Oh! It's back!? I thought it had gone for good yesterday when I tried to post (and then lost) my long intervention about democracy. I should known better than to have broken my own resolution which chimes with Adam's advice. Oink Oink!
Drewy posted:Adam Meredith posted:Drewy posted:Adam Meredith posted:rodwsmith posted:Ah I get it now! It’s all so blindingly obvious. When brexit goes wrong it will all be the fault of the people who voted remain. Of course it will! Nurse!!"The buck stops with everybody."
Exactly. The remainers are causing such a fuss they might aswell have voted to leave.
I shouldn't have assumed knowledge of events outside these shores nor a working understanding of irony.
One US president actually took responsibility for his actions - "The buck stops here*"
Another holder of the office, D. Trump, abrogates any responsibility (as you will if the outcome is less rosy than you seem to believe) - "The buck stops with everyone"
*The sign "The Buck Stops Here" that was on President Truman's desk in his White House office was made in the Federal Reformatory at El Reno, Oklahoma. Fred A. Canfil, then United States Marshal for the Western District of Missouri and a friend of Mr. Truman, saw a similar sign while visiting the Reformatory and asked the Warden if a sign like it could be made for President Truman. The sign was made and mailed to the President on October 2, 1945.
The saying "the buck stops here" derives from the slang expression "pass the buck" which means passing the responsibility on to someone else.Which you seem happy to do.
Whatever.
Thanks for your insight.
jlarsson posted:I was in London on a software project first half of 2016 but I dont claim to have understood everything going on around me. Still the result of the referendum was accepted by both government and parliament right?My second vote objection is based on the time claimed to be needed for a second vote. The EU said the A50 may be extended a few weeks or so. But absolutely not interfer with the EU elections. And I agree with that - the voters need to know the context they are voting in.
The suggestion I heard from the EU if the UK need longer time was to exit in march and then (if so wished) re-apply and the application would be fast-tracked. But that surely does not apply in case of a crash-out.
The UK can remain, crash-out or go for mays deal. From the outside this has been pretty clear for months.
The result was accepted by Government/Parliament. Then the facebook manipulation, foreign interference, campaign law breaking etc. came out of the woodwork.
A problem with exit/then reapply is even if fast tracked there is (I believe) a requirement to sign up for Schengen and join the Eurozone. Of course, this is a problem for the UK, not the EU!
There aren't any simple answers and there is little time left- and I put the blame for this at the UK Government's door, they've prevaricated away 30 months. Utterly shocking.
Yes, it wandered off course a bit. One or two posts clearly caused upset. Not for the first time.
Big day Tuesday. First off, the Forum Closes. Then I think there might be something of slight importance happening in parliament ?
Don Atkinson posted:Yes, it wandered off course a bit. One or two posts clearly caused upset. Not for the first time.
Big day Tuesday. First off, the Forum Closes. Then I think there might be something of slight importance happening in parliament ?
Quite a coincidence, really. I suppose a new Brexit thread in the new forum could be started. But at the moment there's not many on it (invites to beta group members) and probably on Tuesday not that many will have transitioned. Also, those that do will be wrestling with the way new forum works.
MDS posted:..... not that many will have transitioned.
Sounds a little more of a change than I'm prepared for.