Brexit or Bust !!

Pah!!! Sodding Brexit has already cost me over £1000 a year in real money just in terms of the dire exchange rate inflating the cost of going abroad and we're not even out yet! 

As for the "freedom" issue - I'd far rather be ruled by a bunch of faceless beaurocrats in Brussels than the self serving incompetent tossers that infest both sides of the Houses of  Parliament in this country!

Dammit - been refraining from commenting on Brexit threads until now but the unnecessary financial pain of an imminent trip to the sunshine is too raw to ignore!

Having touched on the potential for things to get even more divisive if there's another referendum, I think we saw a little taste of that yesterday with the unacceptable haranguing of Anna Soubry outside Parliament when she was jostled and called a Nazi. Wherever people stand on the question of EU membership such behaviour is should not be acceptable in this country.  

I didn't comment in the last Brexit thread, and nor this one save for at the beginning before it went the same way. But my situation - far from unique - is perhaps worth consideration from the position of people whose vote has materially affected me, in more profound ways than it has themselves, certainly now, and perhaps in future.

I live in France. Have done for twelve years. In the event of a 'no deal' we (or so we are told) will be given three months (the EU regulation) to get our paperwork for residency (to which we are entitled under EU law). It's called a Carte de Séjour. No big deal, Americans, Australians - anyone from outside the EU - needs one (even Brits used to need one).

But we will get three months.

It is currently - CURRENTLY - taking the French Authorities FIVE months to process the applications. 

So, despite having lived here for twelve years, owning property and a business, paying taxes etc, I will need a document to prove my right to reside which will not be obtainable in the time I will have. (Applying now does not help - the only Carte de Séjour we can have at the moment is for EU citizens, which we are currently, but won't be after March 30th.) With what precise consequences I do not know. No-one does. And yet people in the UK - intelligent people - seem to welcome this. I certainly hope some of the Toremolinos ex-pats who voted for Brexit while refusing to learn Spanish in their ersatz Rovers Returns all get told to go back and drain the NHS resources instead of Spain's. That would serve a lot of people right, that would. 

Germany and the Netherlands have similarly given ex-pats 3 months, but their own bureaucratic systems can cope. There are fewer British in those countries than in France in any case. You might think "So what?' France is inefficient - in other news the pope has just proclaimed catholicism." But that's not the point. To transfer from one system - forty years in the making - to another different (in unknown ways) system overnight is just not practicable. The implications for the daily lives of millions of people are simply unknown. But they won't be good.

In October 2016, utterly disgusted by the referendum result, I applied for 'Acquisition à la Nationalité Française' - citizenship, because I have absolutely no desire to leave here, certainly not to return to fractured, racist Britain anyway. J'ai honte de mon pays. And it is. You should try looking at from the outside. The least-tolerant, most offensive, economically-suicidal (not-caring-who-goes-down with it) laughing stock in the whole of Europe. That's how all the European media, and most of the population, see the UK. Frankly, rightly so, from my perspective. 

I filed my application for citizenship in 2016, and I am still waiting, nor is it guaranteed nor a right. I should hear within the April+3 months window. But just in case, at considerable expense once again, I have applied for Irish citizenship by descent because my grandfather was born there. I am very lucky to have this 'get-out-of-jail' free card to play - many don't. I have friends who are clinically depressed as a result of this decision. Even this might take too long to allow me to, for example, book travel in April without fear of border problems. 

Cameron - in two manifestoes - promised to give UK nationals abroad the right to vote in perpetuity (something pretty much everyone else in the world gets). Twice the Conservative government has refused to honour that commitment, meaning that hundreds of thousands of the people this absurd decision affects the absolute most were not even given the chance to have a say in it (you lose your right to vote after fifteen years away). 

"A DAY WILL COME when your arms will fall even from your hands! A day will come when war will seem as absurd and impossible between Paris and London, between Petersburg and Berlin, between Vienna and Turin, as it would be impossible and would seem absurd today between Rouen and Amiens, between Boston and Philadelphia. A day will come when you France, you Russia, you Italy, you England, you Germany, you all, nations of the continent, without losing your distinct qualities and your glorious individuality, will be merged closely within a superior unit and you will form the European brotherhood, just as Normandy, Brittany, Burgundy, Lorraine, Alsace, all our provinces are merged together in France. A day will come when the only fields of battle will be markets opening up to trade and minds opening up to ideas. A day will come when the bullets and the bombs will be replaced by votes, by the universal suffrage of the peoples, by the venerable arbitration of a great sovereign senate which will be to Europe what this parliament is to England, what this diet is to Germany, what this legislative assembly is to France. A day will come when we will display cannon in museums just as we display instruments of torture today, and are amazed that such things could ever have been possible."

Victor Hugo, August 1849

That day did indeed come, although it took the deaths of many millions to facilitate it. 

And in June 2016 it went again. Britain f*cked it up. 

Cry me a river 

ynwa250505 posted:

You think it is a stupid folly - that is fair enough - but let's not forget that you are in the minority.

 

 

How do you know that? Even if you mean people with that view were in the minority of those who voted in the 2016 referendum, you cannot know that only a minority of the 33m people who voted then think it is folly  today, present tense. So much time has passed, lies and deceit exposed, and realities clearer that a referendum is needed to find out what the majority want now. And that may give an indication of the number who think it is folly. (Ah, the question to ask!)

I'm not at all certain that another referendum will help at all, for one thing that the Brexit process has done is to expose the deep divisions which exist in the UK over the EU project. I fear it has also scarred politics and risks destabilising democracy in this great country of ours.

Pev posted:

Pah!!! Sodding Brexit has already cost me over £1000 a year in real money just in terms of the dire exchange rate inflating the cost of going abroad and we're not even out yet! 

As for the "freedom" issue - I'd far rather be ruled by a bunch of faceless beaurocrats in Brussels than the self serving incompetent tossers that infest both sides of the Houses of  Parliament in this country!

Dammit - been refraining from commenting on Brexit threads until now but the unnecessary financial pain of an imminent trip to the sunshine is too raw to ignore!

Yep, just through the fall in the pound it has directly cost my immediate family at least £4k to date, and will be more if the in the coming few months 

And that is what I can directly and immediately calculate  - there have been other cost increases that are less easy to tease out.

Clive B posted:

I'm not at all certain that another referendum will help at all, for one thing that the Brexit process has done is to expose the deep divisions which exist in the UK over the EU project. I fear it has also scarred politics and risks destabilising democracy in this great country of ours.

Whilst you are right about the damage already done, a referendum would ensure that leaving on the terms available, whether with the deal or no deal, or remaining, is the true will of the majority at the time the deed is done. 

Drewy posted:

Cry me a river 

Brexit people and empathy.

A Venn diagram with no overlap. 

Clive B posted:

I'm not at all certain that another referendum will help at all, for one thing that the Brexit process has done is to expose the deep divisions which exist in the UK over the EU project. I fear it has also scarred politics and risks destabilising democracy in this great country of ours.

The only arguments I see against a referendum are:

A) It causes division.
B) We've already made a decision

For B) I'd argue that the 2016 referendum was flawed in several ways:
-ex-pat UK residents not allowed to vote, EU residents not allowed to vote
-Clear evidence of VoteLeave breaking the law (referred to police)
-Serious questions of where Leave.EU funding came from
-Suspicions of foreign funding/interference not followed through.

For A I'd argue that we already have the division.

I believe we deserve to have a more informed vote now- a vote on the information we have gained since things are a little clearer now than they were 30 months ago.   I agree it will drive division, but that's happening anyway and I'd rather we went through a few more months of 'pain' and be certain we have the right decision, supported by the majority (whatever it is) than leave simply because we're scared of  a few thugs.

Clive B posted:

I'm not at all certain that another referendum will help at all, for one thing that the Brexit process has done is to expose the deep divisions which exist in the UK over the EU project. I fear it has also scarred politics and risks destabilising democracy in this great country of ours.

Probably the best action would be to go for Mays "deal". This will give at least a 2 year transition breather before the final "Brexit" deal is ready and comes into force. The UK should be reminded that as written the infamous backstop gives the UK plenty of room to hit the EU back where it hurts most - the common market.

jlarsson posted:

Clive B posted:

I'm not at all certain that another referendum will help at all, for one thing that the Brexit process has done is to expose the deep divisions which exist in the UK over the EU project. I fear it has also scarred politics and risks destabilising democracy in this great country of ours.

Probably the best action would be to go for Mays "deal". This will give at least a 2 year transition breather before the final "Brexit" deal is ready and comes into force. The UK should be reminded that as written the infamous backstop gives the UK plenty of room to hit the EU back where it hurts most - the common market. 

I'm beginning to see this ending up 'eventually' in an impasse & a 2nd referendum.    I have been looking at the various polls - yes yes I know polls have a poor track record - but they all indicate a widening gap over these last months in favour of remaining in EU.   Personally I'm not sure the polls have it right.  I guess the public are fed up with it all & maybe wish to put an end to it,   plus of course we are all one hell of a lot better informed since 2016 & this has to be a significant factor.  However,  I wonder how many might have gone the other way,  I know numbers of people who have become more angry over what they see as EU intransigence & they don't like the thought of people who we did not elect (the EU) preventing the UK from making a free decision.     Just a thought 

I've just seen a news flash saying that MPs have backed an amendment to the Finance Bill, which will limit spending on no-deal preparations unless authorised by Parliament. Basically that means we'll be less prepared for exit after the PM's deal is voted down next week.

rodwsmith posted:

It is currently - CURRENTLY - taking the French Authorities FIVE months to process the applications. 

Surely this is the fault of the French bureacracy, rather than some Brits who voted to leave the EU, Rod? Having lived in France for more than a decade, you ought to know that the wheels turn even more slowly there than they do here in Blighty.

Clive B posted:

I've just seen a news flash saying that MPs have backed an amendment to the Finance Bill, which will limit spending on no-deal preparations unless authorised by Parliament. Basically that means we'll be less prepared for exit after the PM's deal is voted down next week.

It's wrong and dishonest to squander billions of pounds of tax-payers money bulldozing a way clear before getting the proper parliamentary planning permissions - of which we all know will get a proper rejection next week.

jlarsson posted:

Probably the best action would be to go for Mays "deal". 

I think a huge number of people here, be they Leaver or Remainer, would disagree. I voted Leave, and to be honest I would rather stay in than go with May's deal. It seems to me to be a solution drawn up by committee to offend the least number of people, and as a result that it ends up pleasing nobody.

rodwsmith posted:

In October 2016, utterly disgusted by the referendum result, I applied for 'Acquisition à la Nationalité Française' - citizenship, because I have absolutely no desire to leave here, certainly not to return to fractured, racist Britain anyway. J'ai honte de mon pays. And it is. You should try looking at from the outside. The least-tolerant, most offensive, economically-suicidal (not-caring-who-goes-down with it) laughing stock in the whole of Europe. That's how all the European media, and most of the population, see the UK. Frankly, rightly so, from my perspective.

That's just silly. Britain is a far less racist and much more tolerant country than France - and indeed most of Europe, Holland and a few others aside.

And if La Belle France is such a haven, why are people currently risking their lives crossing the Channel in small boats to get to the racist hellhole that is Perfidious Albion?

i say all this as a fond Francophile. someone who loves France, its language, its people, its food, its culture and art.

Kevin-W posted:

rodwsmith posted:

It is currently - CURRENTLY - taking the French Authorities FIVE months to process the applications. 

Surely this is the fault of the French bureacracy, rather than some Brits who voted to leave the EU, Rod? Having lived in France for more than a decade, you ought to know that the wheels turn even more slowly there than they do here in Blighty.

Surely, delivery a few of cases of top notch plonk to correct people will speed things along.

Don Atkinson posted:

A lot of the Leavers that I have spoken to thought they were going to be SUBSTANTIALLY better off to the tune of £350m each week.

In both journalistic (well, good journalism anyway) and legal terms that's known as anecdotal evidence, ie not evidence of very much at all really. How many people did you speak to? When? in what part of the country? What kind of people did you speak to? What might their motives have been? In what situation or under what circumstances did you speak to them? It proves nothing.

I could just as easily say: "A lot of Remain voters I spoke to wish they hadn't voted the way they did, but were persuaded to plump for the status quo because they believed George Osborne's threats about a 'punishment budget'." You'd probably choose not to believe me, and to be fair, who could blame you?

 One of the big problems with this thread - and the whole Brexit debacle generally - is that people on both sides are looking for quotes that confirm their position. Nothing to do with real debate or seeking knowledge.

Quite the biggest soup of confirmation bias I've ever come across.

Kevin-W posted:

jlarsson posted:

Probably the best action would be to go for Mays "deal". 

I think a huge number of people here, be they Leaver or Remainer, would disagree. I voted Leave, and to be honest I would rather stay in than go with May's deal. It seems to me to be a solution drawn up by committee to offend the least number of people, and as a result that it ends up pleasing nobody.

As someone who wants to remain, I challenge your statement: the deal is infinitely better than a hard Brexit, a view shared by all with whom I have discussed.

But the best outcome would be to cancel Brexit! However a referendum would be appropriate.

naim_nymph posted:

Very good point, Kuma

There are many fairly foreseeable cost projections from various sources,

they tend to figure out around the estimates below

Cost per person per year:

EU membership = £190

A soft Brexit = £800

A hard Brexit = £1200

No Deal Brexit = £2000

They all point to the fact that being a member of the EU equates to a substantial bargain for each and every one of us : )

Debs

Where do these figures come from? You don't appear to have provided any sources for these numbers. Why is that?

They appear to be as fanciful as anything dreamed up by Johnson, Farrago or Mogg.

Also, the "costs" of the various Brexit scenarios, in the absence of any credible souce for the modelling, must be regarded as contentious, as Brexit hasn't happened yet. Things might be better, or they might be worse. but none of us, not even you Debs can see into the future.

I can only deduce that you are either a) extremely credulous; or b) utterly cynical in your attempts to "prove" your "point".

Kevin-W posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

A lot of the Leavers that I have spoken to thought they were going to be SUBSTANTIALLY better off to the tune of £350m each week.

In both journalistic (well, good journalism anyway) and legal terms that's known as anecdotal evidence, ie not evidence of very much at all really. How many people did you speak to? When? in what part of the country? What kind of people did you speak to? What might their motives have been? In what situation or under what circumstances did you speak to them? It proves nothing.

I could just as easily say: "A lot of Remain voters I spoke to wish they hadn't voted the way they did, but were persuaded to plump for the status quo because they believed George Osborne's threats about a 'punishment budget'." You'd probably choose not to believe me, and to be fair, who could blame you?

 One of the big problems with this thread - and the whole Brexit debacle generally - is that people on both sides are looking for quotes that confirm their position. Nothing to do with real debate or seeking knowledge.

Quite the biggest soup of confirmation bias I've ever come across.

Kevin, my post was in response to YNWA who made an anecdotal claim. You appear to have missed that.

Just watched Channel4's Brexit:The Uncivil War.  An entertaining and well-made drama. The film emphasised the use of data analytics, implying that this could have a been a decisive factor in the 2016 referendum result.  Of course, there are on-going arguments about the legitimacy/legality of some of that.  However, the issue that the film drew out in a way that I had perhaps not given due weight to previously was the Leave campaign's (clever) strategy of tapping into the feelings of many people who have long-felt disaffected and the use of new targeting techniques to persuade some of them to vote. I remain of the view that the UK's membership of the EU cannot legitimately be blamed for the causes of that disaffection, even if the EU referendum may have provided something of a lightening-rod for that disaffection.  But it would be folly to ignore that disaffection, especially for our political leaders.  Rather cynically, the film suggested that the Leave campaign did no more than tap into that disaffection to achieve the referendum result it sought and didn't pretend that leaving the EU would actually address some or any that.  Why is any of that relevant? Well, if there is a second referendum, the campaign to Remain will need to be very different if it is to persuade many of the disaffected to change their minds.      

Well, if we can string it out for another 2 ½ years, most of the stupid old duffers will have popped their clogs. 

Kevin-W posted:

And if La Belle France is such a haven, why are people currently risking their lives crossing the Channel in small boats to get to the racist hellhole that is Perfidious Albion?

You know full well that this has got nothing to do with either France - or Britain...