Brexit or Bust !!

Posted by: Don Atkinson on 01 January 2019

With only 88 days to go before the biggest collective decision that most of us here in the UK will ever experience....... what will happen !!

My prediction is :

TM with press her current deal + "assurance" about the "NI Backstop" and put it to a Parliamentary vote

Parliament will reject this deal/assurance, then

Parliament will reject leaving without a deal

Then Either :-

A Motion of No-Confidence will be approved and a General Election will follow or

A Motion to Withdraw Article 50 will be approved and we will start over. (I rather like this idea)

 

One final possibility .....

The Gov friggs about for 88 days and we don't wake up until 30th March .... ie we SLEEPWALK out of the EU

 

 

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by SamClaus
Kevin-W posted:
rodwsmith posted:

It is currently - CURRENTLY - taking the French Authorities FIVE months to process the applications. 

Surely this is the fault of the French bureacracy, rather than some Brits who voted to leave the EU, Rod? Having lived in France for more than a decade, you ought to know that the wheels turn even more slowly there than they do here in Blighty.

There was a lot more than that in rodwsmith's post...

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by Kevin-W
Don Atkinson posted:

Kevin, my post was in response to YNWA who made an anecdotal claim. You appear to have missed that.

Fair enough Don, but two wrongs don't make a right!

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by Don Atkinson
Kevin-W posted:
Don Atkinson posted:

Kevin, my post was in response to YNWA who made an anecdotal claim. You appear to have missed that.

Fair enough Don, but two wrongs don't make a right!

No probs.

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by ynwa250505
Kevin-W posted:
Don Atkinson posted:

Kevin, my post was in response to YNWA who made an anecdotal claim. You appear to have missed that.

Fair enough Don, but two wrongs don't make a right!

“... an anecdotal claim ...” ??? - when/where?

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by kuma
ynwa250505 posted:
naim_nymph posted:
kuma posted:

If I were in the UK, from a tax payer's perspective, I sure want to see the hard numbers. Ideology is important but to a point. It needs to make sense from a fiscal impact and its sustainability into a future.

Very good point, Kuma

There are many fairly foreseeable cost projections from various sources,

they tend to figure out around the estimates below

Cost per person per year:

EU membership = £190

A soft Brexit = £800

A hard Brexit = £1200

No Deal Brexit = £2000

They all point to the fact that being a member of the EU equates to a substantial bargain for each and every one of us : )

Debs

Annual cost per person? Foreseeable? Which year? Ongoing annual costs or one-offs? I don’t believe such figures are capable of identification - these “estimates” are simply a figment of somebody’s imagination skewed to support a particular point of view. For example, what are the underlying assumptions? How are the numbers calculated? Who/where are the “various sources”? Let’s have that data out in the open rather than relying on anecdotal claims a la Project Fear.

I agree. Would like to see the formula for the above figures.

Saw PM's interview yesterday and she seems to think people in the UK will be better off econoiaclly ( tho, she did not elaborate ) after the Brexit. She certainly still holding the ground did not even want to talk about No Deal Brexit. Looks like she's going to prow through.

So if you have voted for Brexit and if your come falls, you are ok with it?

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by kuma
Pev posted:

As for the "freedom" issue - I'd far rather be ruled by a bunch of faceless beaurocrats in Brussels than the self serving incompetent tossers that infest both sides of the Houses of  Parliament in this country!

Ouch! 

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by kuma

I feel for this UK farmer if Brexit goes through. UK's unemployment rate is 3%! 

I did not think of a labour shortage without migrant workers. Time to wean off some on  benefits.

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by winkyincanada
Drewy posted:

Cry me a river 

Seriously? That little empathy? You can't even pretend to care about others?

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by kuma
rodwsmith posted:

 

It is currently - CURRENTLY - taking the French Authorities FIVE months to process the applications. 

 

That's about the same as getting a replacement Green card from US Immigration office, atm. 

It's hard to believe French government won't protect current *EU aliens* .

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by jpr

Also living in France and have applied for residency/work permit - the French authorities have opened a specific desk for Brits in my local prefecture to get their Carte de Séjour quicker than other nationalities (queue jumping!).

So can’t really complain here but I know in some areas where there are less U.K. citizens the procedures are longer and more complex (they vary by Département)

 

Kevin-W noted “That's just silly. Britain is a far less racist and much more tolerant country than France - and indeed most of Europe, Holland and a few others aside.”

i would have agreed with your comment 18 years ago when I moved U.K. to France. Things have changed since in France, my feeling is the opposite now - especially since the vote.

 

Posted on: 08 January 2019 by ynwa250505
Hmack posted:

Just watched the totally disgusting scenes at Anna Soubry's interview with the BBC tonight. 

It appears that the bully boys on the far right of the Brexit camp now feel empowered to do and say what they want, no matter how depraved and disgusting their behaviour. Just a few individuals on this occasion, but nevertheless absolutely appalling and a sad reflection on our society.   

Your disgust would seem a tad less opportunistic if you had expressed similar sentiments regarding the treatment of Johnson (and family), Farage and Rees-Mogg (and family) by the bully boys of the Remain camp ...

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Ardbeg10y
Kevin-W posted:

That's just silly. Britain is a far less racist and much more tolerant country than France - and indeed most of Europe, Holland and a few others aside.

And if La Belle France is such a haven, why are people currently risking their lives crossing the Channel in small boats to get to the racist hellhole that is Perfidious Albion?

i say all this as a fond Francophile. someone who loves France, its language, its people, its food, its culture and art.

I believe it is a bit cheap to stick 'racism' to others. It happens often, normally done by left-wingers.

There are various types of migration, but most migration goes along the lines of money or culture. Since England had an empire which was 96 times the size of England, I believe that is a bigger reason for migration to your soil. These folks have a family there, they speak your language (kind of), they have same interest in sports. The biggest chance for them to be successful is actually in England. If they fail, they will stick to what gives them hope: a rigid kind of Islam.

The irony is that Brexit will stop immigration which extends your economy - think about guys from Poland in horeca and construction work - think about French folks in London working in banking - think about Spanish guys or even guys like me which are of value for you (most of my software development work is done via a British company). The guys having less value and less probability to succeed in your country will still come ...

And we should not forget about the democratic information that birth rate for 'native' (whatever that might be) Brits is simply too low to replace the aging people.

It is all quite ironic and sad.

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Don Atkinson
ynwa250505 posted:
Kevin-W posted:
Don Atkinson posted:

Kevin, my post was in response to YNWA who made an anecdotal claim. You appear to have missed that.

Fair enough Don, but two wrongs don't make a right!

“... an anecdotal claim ...” ??? - when/where?

No, of course I haven't asked all 17.4m - but I know my reasons and they are the same as every leave voter that I have spoken to and every leave voter that I have read/seen/heard in/on newspaper/TV/radio and nobody voted leave for economic reasons. Feel free to rebut that ...

Kevin used the word "anecdotal" when I referred to £350m per week and every leave voter that I had spoken to.

You will need to take up the definition of "anecdotal" in this context with Kevin.

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by rodwsmith
ynwa250505 posted:
Your disgust would seem a tad less opportunistic if you had expressed similar sentiments regarding the treatment of Johnson (and family), Farage and Rees-Mogg (and family) by the bully boys of the Remain camp ...

Can you provide some evidence of this 'treatment' by the 'bully boys' to the Rees-Mogg and Johnson families please?

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Timmo1341

The BBC showed a clip of Rees-Mogg and his children being nastily harangued by Remainers on his doorstep a couple of evenings ago. I can’t give you time, date or channel, but am sure the Beeb will oblige if asked!

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Mike-B

Try googling rees-mogg chidren,  most of the papers have it on a video link,  its dated 12 Sept 18

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Stephen packer
Timmo1341 posted:

The BBC showed a clip of Rees-Mogg and his children being nastily harangued by Remainers on his doorstep a couple of evenings ago. I can’t give you time, date or channel, but am sure the Beeb will oblige if asked!

I would agree that the haranguing of Rees-Mogg on his doorstep wasn't acceptable.

However, what Anna Soubry suffered is a degree worse than this, she was surrounded by a group of aggressive men who blocked her path into parliament while the police watched.  It is not equivalent to what Rees-Mogg suffered.

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Don Atkinson
rodwsmith posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
Your disgust would seem a tad less opportunistic if you had expressed similar sentiments regarding the treatment of Johnson (and family), Farage and Rees-Mogg (and family) by the bully boys of the Remain camp ...

Can you provide some evidence of this 'treatment' by the 'bully boys' to the Rees-Mogg and Johnson families please?

Keeping things in perspective, the lack of such "evidence" won't succeed in bringing Brexit to a halt. Nor will the confirmation that such despicable bullying took place (which it did) justify the concept of Brexit-at-any-cost.

There are nasty people on both sides of this situation.

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Drewy
winkyincanada posted:
Drewy posted:

Cry me a river 

Seriously? That little empathy? You can't even pretend to care about others?

In what way should I care? Nobody cares about me and my opinions. 

I care about my family, friends and myself. 

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by rodwsmith
Timmo1341 posted:

The BBC showed a clip of Rees-Mogg and his children being nastily harangued by Remainers on his doorstep a couple of evenings ago. I can’t give you time, date or channel, but am sure the Beeb will oblige if asked!

I had seen that, but in disbelief that you could even consider there to be a parallel, I just watched it again.

One elderly man saying "Lots of people don’t like your daddy, do you know that?' and asking the nanny how much she gets paid - whilst not defensible - in no way equates to being repeatedly having 'f*cking Nazi' shouted angrily at you by a crowd of aggressive men and receiving death threats, and if you think there is even the faintest parallel, then that in itself is reason for despair

A smiling Rees-Mogg, his wife, and nanny willingly engaged the protester in conversation (ill advisedly in my opinion), but they could have simply walked through the door. 

No comparison whatsoever.

Drewy posted:

In what way should I care? Nobody cares about me and my opinions. 

I care about my family, friends and myself. 

And that, in one sentence, is the entirety of Brexit.

People who voted for Brexit are not - of course - racists. But they are selfish - at least in some way. As Drewy is openly and shamelessly admitting to being. Brexit is all about denying others what you have (or believe you have) because you think you deserve it more, or have more right to it. Whether it's wealth, freedoms, benefits, a health service, sovereignty or even blue passports. That's what it is about, and that's all it's about.

Not all selfish people are racists. But all racists are selfish. It's not hard to see where the accusation has its birth.

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Drewy
rodwsmith posted:
Timmo1341 posted:

The BBC showed a clip of Rees-Mogg and his children being nastily harangued by Remainers on his doorstep a couple of evenings ago. I can’t give you time, date or channel, but am sure the Beeb will oblige if asked!

I had seen that, but in disbelief that you could even consider there to be a parallel, I just watched it again.

One elderly man saying "Lots of people don’t like your daddy, do you know that?' and asking the nanny how much she gets paid - whilst not defensible - in no way equates to being repeatedly having 'f*cking Nazi' shouted angrily at you by a crowd of aggressive men and receiving death threats, and if you think there is even the faintest parallel, then that in itself is reason for despair

A smiling Rees-Mogg, his wife, and nanny willingly engaged the protester in conversation (ill advisedly in my opinion), but they could have simply walked through the door. 

No comparison whatsoever.

Drewy posted:

In what way should I care? Nobody cares about me and my opinions. 

I care about my family, friends and myself. 

And that, in one sentence, is the entirety of Brexit.

People who voted for Brexit are not - of course - racists. But they are selfish - at least in some way. As Drewy is openly and shamelessly admitting to being. Brexit is all about denying others what you have (or believe you have) because you think you deserve it more, or have more right to it. Whether it's wealth, freedoms, benefits, a health service, sovereignty or even blue passports. That's what it is about, and that's all it's about.

Not all selfish people are racists. But all racists are selfish. It's not hard to see where the accusation has its birth.

You sound like a nice person. Bet you’d be a laugh in the pub the Friday before Christmas 

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Innocent Bystander
 

 

You sound like a nice person. Bet you’d be a laugh in the pub the Friday before Christmas 

Strange response - could you please clarify?

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Hmack
ynwa250505 posted:
Hmack posted:

Just watched the totally disgusting scenes at Anna Soubry's interview with the BBC tonight. 

It appears that the bully boys on the far right of the Brexit camp now feel empowered to do and say what they want, no matter how depraved and disgusting their behaviour. Just a few individuals on this occasion, but nevertheless absolutely appalling and a sad reflection on our society.   

Your disgust would seem a tad less opportunistic if you had expressed similar sentiments regarding the treatment of Johnson (and family), Farage and Rees-Mogg (and family) by the bully boys of the Remain camp ...

I am a little disappointed by the way you have chosen to respond to this particular post of mine, but I can't say I'm particularly surprised.

Just who are the bully boys of the 'Remain' camp - can you identify them? Are they extreme left wingers, extreme right wingers, or do you apply the term to anyone who disagrees with and protests about the self centred views of Farage, Johnson JRM and others like them?

By contrast, the bully boys of the ultra right of the Brexit campaign are very easily identified - not least because they boast about their racist, xenophobic and Islamophobic (and probably more phobias besides) views. I deliberately qualified my original post by stating that only a relatively small number of persons were involved in this particular incident because I suspected it might otherwise be misconstrued as aimed at all those who support Brexit.

Are you aware of the background of the particular people who were involved in this incident. One of the people involved was James Goddard - a fairly well known campaigner for so called 'Tommy Robinson'. Here are just a few of the statements attributed to him:

"there can be no peace while Islam exists in the West", "the establishment is riven with paedophiles". 

He has also been quoted as telling police outside Parliament that "they were fair game" and "if you want a war, we will give you a war".  

Do you think that his views and statements coupled with the actions of him and his supporters qualifies him as being not only a 'bully boy', but a particularly dangerous extremist as well.

I think that my disgust and the disgust of others is very well founded!

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by naim_nymph

Breaking News!

The Seaboard Freight ferry docked into Ramsgate today. Spokesman said cross-channel trials are doing very well.

Posted on: 09 January 2019 by Drewy
Innocent Bystander posted:
 

 

You sound like a nice person. Bet you’d be a laugh in the pub the Friday before Christmas 

Strange response - could you please clarify?

Can you please clarify why you should need me to clarify a simple statement? 

I look forward to your reply with interest