Bitcoin

winkyincanada posted:

DrMark posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

 I was a hardcore gold bug starting in 2001-2 but I've lost all interest in PM's outside of a small "sentimental" position. 

 

While I don't speculate on intrinsically worthless things like PMs or Bitcoin, I applaud your decision to get out of this space. Holding gold has been (and will continue to be) a terrible, terrible strategy over any reasonable time period.

And fiat currencies are not "intrinsically worthless" things? Gold has a 5,000 year record of value. Name one fiat currency in the history of world finance that has been successful for more than 300 years. The USD will eventually find its intrinsic value. Ditto the Euro, and all the others. Then the SDRs will show up, and the banks will take care of themselves. They always do.

$305 an ounce ca. 2002, and just shy of $1,300 today. That's a double every 3 years on average...so I fail to see how that "has been a terrible strategy" - and no, I didn't own any gold in that time period, so I was not in that game. Had you sold out anywhere near the $1,600 - $1,800 top a few years back, it would have returned ~650% in about 10 years.

But it really is not an investment, nor should it be treated as such. It is crisis and reset insurance, nothing more. Being a "gold bug" is a pointless endeavor. Use miners and royalty companies as speculative vehicles because they tend to front-run and increase more than the value of the PMs - mining itself is a TERRIBLE business.

As Alan Greenspan recently said in a recent interview, after saying generally negative things about gold...he was asked "Do you own any gold?" His response: "Of course...I'm not stupid."

Central banks are loading up on gold these days, despite nay-saying it consistently. And the only reason the price is where it is, is because the paper gold market (i.e., funds like GLD) allow it to be one of the most manipulated markets around. If people with the contracts ever demand their physical product, there is nowhere near enough to sate those requests.

And cryptos may (or may not) end up being alternatives to PMs and fiat currencies - only time will tell.

You're cherry-picking your timeline.

From 2013 to the present day gold, in inflation-adjusted terms has provided a CAGR of just 0.87% per year. If inflation is added the CAGR is just 4%. It's been a much worse investment the US bonds. If the returns are considered in the light of the volatility, then they are really dismal. All the risk and no reward. Of course, some gold bugs argue that the gold price is negatively correlated to their other investments and therefore should be a part of a risk managed portfolio as a hedge against bad things happening. Their is some evidence to support this notion, I'll admit. 

We're not disagreeing in general. Currencies are simply promises made by one party to another to provide something of tangible value in the future. They're all risky to a greater or lesser extent in that regard, and I don't speculate on their movement in price. My investments are in tangible things such as companies and real-estate, (albeit all priced by way of regular currencies). I count gold primarily as a currency as the stored amount of gold vastly exceeds it's usage for real applications (plating audio connectors for example). It's price is largely reflection the market's view of its future price, and is essentially disconnected from the cost of production via mining/processing/smelting/refining process by the vast buffer of stockpiled gold. (The notion that the amount gold named in derivatives vastly exceeds the stored amount is true, but disingenuous. In the case of the derivatives there are always counter-parties and it all just nets off or defaults to zero. Adds to volatility but not to long-term price growth.)

My point is that Cypto/Precious Metals/Fiat are all intrinsically worthless. They are means of transaction (a contract or promise - nothing more, nothing less) and not a reliable store of value in the longer term at all. They all must offer poor returns in the long run as they don't produce anything.

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

BTC @ $13,000

BCH now under $2,300 - Lost 44% of its "value" since yesterday. The bitcoincash.org website calls it the "best money in the world".

ETH has lost 20% in a day.

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

Yes the market is still free falling. May test the $10,000 price soon.

winkyincanada posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

BCH now under $2,300 - Lost 44% of its "value" since yesterday. The bitcoincash.org website calls it the "best money in the world".

BCH is a scam. I only wish I could have sold mine @ $4,000.

Kevin Richardson posted:

winkyincanada posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

BCH now under $2,300 - Lost 44% of its "value" since yesterday. The bitcoincash.org website calls it the "best money in the world".

BCH is a scam. I only wish I could have sold mine @ $4,000.

The volumes across all cryptos that I have looked at are at all-time highs over the past 15 minutes.

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

winkyincanada posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

BCH now under $2,300 - Lost 44% of its "value" since yesterday. The bitcoincash.org website calls it the "best money in the world".

BCH is a scam. I only wish I could have sold mine @ $4,000.

The volumes across all cryptos that I have looked at are at all-time highs over the past 15 minutes.

Things have calmed a little, but that was a wild 2 hours.

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

winkyincanada posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

BCH now under $2,300 - Lost 44% of its "value" since yesterday. The bitcoincash.org website calls it the "best money in the world".

BCH is a scam. I only wish I could have sold mine @ $4,000.

The volumes across all cryptos that I have looked at are at all-time highs over the past 15 minutes.

Good support above $14,000 for BTC. 

XRP added another 100%.

Kevin Richardson posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

winkyincanada posted:

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bitcoin is in a bit of a "free fall" in USD price. Hovering just above $16,000 down nearly $3,500 from its ATH. This is offset by massive appreciation of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork coin which is up 145% in past week to $3,937.

For LTC holders.... Charlie Lee tweeted that he has liquidated/donated his entire LTC position. I suppose his dumping 500,000(?) LTC onto GDAX is partially responsible for today's drop to $313. [Just speculating]

 

BTC @ $14,000

BCH @ $2,640

BCH now under $2,300 - Lost 44% of its "value" since yesterday. The bitcoincash.org website calls it the "best money in the world".

BCH is a scam. I only wish I could have sold mine @ $4,000.

The volumes across all cryptos that I have looked at are at all-time highs over the past 15 minutes.

Good support above $14,000 for BTC. 

XRP added another 100%.

 

BTC support at $14,000 might not have been as "good" as first thought, but massive support for BCH above $11,000. Look at those volumes. Being a chartist is fun. I'm mesmerised by the charts.

Blood on the crypto streets today. So much red.

I suppose this is just a healthy correction given the massive run up this month. I was kind of hoping it wouldn't happen until after Jan 1.

Too much volatility for me. I'm going to try to tune it out for the holidays.

Merry Christmas.

You can tell in the UK there are a lot of new people who have invested in Cryptos who don’t really know what to expect... apparently some of the noobes, including the Financial Times thought the sky was falling in yesterday... but in crypto land it was just a regular dip.. admittedly there have been only two or three big dips over the last three months or so.. but this is entirely normal and what  Cryptos have done ever since they first appeared, and the dips used to be far more severe... and guess what it’s bounced up again today and is still significantly higher value against fiat for most crypto currencies than they were a few weeks ago... 

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

You can tell in the UK there are a lot of new people who have invested in Cryptos who don’t really know what to expect... apparently some of the noobes, including the Financial Times thought the sky was falling in yesterday... but in crypto land it was just a regular dip.. admittedly there have been only two or three big dips over the last three months or so.. but this is entirely normal and what  Cryptos have done ever since they first appeared, and the dips used to be far more severe... and guess what it’s bounced up again today and is still significantly higher value against fiat for most crypto currencies than they were a few weeks ago... 

Yes, I was a bit disappointed it wasn't more dramatic. I think dips of more than 90% are likely, and will certainly get people's attention.

[@mention:30428924477710615] - take some profits. Get a NDS/552/500. ;-)

If it all goes to 0, you've got something out of it.

It it hits a million, what's a few mill here and there?

MangoMonkey posted:

[@mention:30428924477710615] - take some profits. Get a NDS/552/500. ;-)

If it all goes to 0, you've got something out of it.

It it hits a million, what's a few mill here and there?

I am more likely to buy a high end one box system. All the "cable dressing" and "micro management of component placement" is really beyond my level of interest. I did sell some coins recently with an eye on a HiFi upgrade. I am just torn as to which direction to go.

Bob the Builder posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

!

 

If you invested $36,000 into LTC on December 18, 2016, you'd now have over $3,000,000 USD in additional wealth. Maybe not enough to retire but plenty for most people to not have to worry about $ anymore.

 

 

 

Not enough to retire on we truly are in La La land.  If you cannot make three million dollars work enough for you to retire on then you really should take a long hard look at yourself.

Are you in the US? I did not say $3MM is not enough to retire just that it is possible some people couldn't retire on that.

I have friends in NYC with modest homes and $2MM mortgages. My kid wants to go to an Ivy League University which will likely cost $500,000. Retire in your 30's-50's means you have to pay for your own health insurance. That can easily run $30,000/year for a family. If you ever get sick the health insurance companies will drop you/charge even more [assuming the thugs in Congress continue to kill ACA.] So you should budget $500K - $1MM for health care from now until age 65 when you become eligible for Medicare.

Bitcoin rebounding from recent flash crash? Substantial volume has put BTC back near $16,000. ETH/LTC remain fairly steady around 15% below recent ATH.

The future? Bitcoin clearly has a scaling problem that needs to be addressed if it is to ever reach mass adoption. I'm starting to warm up to the possibility that LTC/ETH may ultimately surpass BTC market capitalization. Plan on shifting a % into these in 2018.

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bob the Builder posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

!

 

If you invested $36,000 into LTC on December 18, 2016, you'd now have over $3,000,000 USD in additional wealth. Maybe not enough to retire but plenty for most people to not have to worry about $ anymore.

 

 

 

Not enough to retire on we truly are in La La land.  If you cannot make three million dollars work enough for you to retire on then you really should take a long hard look at yourself.

Are you in the US? I did not say $3MM is not enough to retire just that it is possible some people couldn't retire on that.

I have friends in NYC with modest homes and $2MM mortgages. My kid wants to go to an Ivy League University which will likely cost $500,000. Retire in your 30's-50's means you have to pay for your own health insurance. That can easily run $30,000/year for a family. If you ever get sick the health insurance companies will drop you/charge even more [assuming the thugs in Congress continue to kill ACA.] So you should budget $500K - $1MM for health care from now until age 65 when you become eligible for Medicare.

Like I said La La Land.  And no not in the U.S I'm in England.

Bob the Builder posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Bob the Builder posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

!

 

If you invested $36,000 into LTC on December 18, 2016, you'd now have over $3,000,000 USD in additional wealth. Maybe not enough to retire but plenty for most people to not have to worry about $ anymore.

 

 

 

Not enough to retire on we truly are in La La land.  If you cannot make three million dollars work enough for you to retire on then you really should take a long hard look at yourself.

Are you in the US? I did not say $3MM is not enough to retire just that it is possible some people couldn't retire on that.

I have friends in NYC with modest homes and $2MM mortgages. My kid wants to go to an Ivy League University which will likely cost $500,000. Retire in your 30's-50's means you have to pay for your own health insurance. That can easily run $30,000/year for a family. If you ever get sick the health insurance companies will drop you/charge even more [assuming the thugs in Congress continue to kill ACA.] So you should budget $500K - $1MM for health care from now until age 65 when you become eligible for Medicare.

Like I said La La Land.  And no not in the U.S I'm in England.

Why do you say La La Land? I don't understand what you mean.

Converting some crypto into tangible assets. I'm treating myself to a perpetual calendar watch.

 The last watch I'll ever need.

Lovely watch Kevin, but don’t kid yourself about it being ‘the last watch you’ll ever need’. Watches like these have very little to do with satisfying needs, much more to do with fulfilling dreams. Glad to see your ‘investing’ is bringing tangible benefits.

Blackmorec posted:

Lovely watch Kevin, but don’t kid yourself about it being ‘the last watch you’ll ever need’. Watches like these have very little to do with satisfying needs, much more to do with fulfilling dreams. Glad to see your ‘investing’ is bringing tangible benefits.

 

I'm a watch nut and the perpetual calendar is the only significant complication I don't currently have. Of course it isn't the last watch I'll ever want ????. 

I've coveted this watch [and the previous version] for years.

Unfortunately I've just learned this watch is not a real perpetual since it cannot handle dates after December 31, 2199! I suppose JLC will provide a service to extend its useful lifespan at least through December 31, 2399. [I love fine watches knowing 100+ years after I'm dead somebody will still wear them. ]

Now I need to get my wife something nice. ????

The Korea FUD seems to have passed. ETH setting new ATH above $900 today. Will 2018 be another big year for cryptos? 

I guess I was wrong about Ripple. I should have bought some @ $0.18. I'm thinking it is a potential hedge against possible Bitcoin demise. Live and learn.

2018 has already got off to a good start with crypto - however one needs to diversify and leave alone... Eth has now pushed past $1000 and moving to $1100..., Ripple is hovering between $2.50 and $3.20 and Bitcoin has moved past $16000 again. The only one of the established coins I am wary of is Litecoin. Ironically it has great utility and I use a lot to ship value around with it, which until Ripple becomes more widely adopted on exchanges, seems to be most efficient, quickest and cheapest way - but for holding and investing it just seems too unpredictable and overall is largely wedded to the value of Bitcoin.

What is interesting is that the exposure of crypto seems higher in much of Asia than in Europe and the US - and demand seems much higher there, seemingly because many of their governments are more overt in warning their populations of the risks  - and because of lack of arbitrage abilities  on any large scale for places like between Korea and the US - the crypto prices are quite far apart - like 20% for some in demand cryptos like Ripple.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

2018 has already got off to a good start with crypto - however one needs to diversify and leave alone... Eth has now pushed past $1000 and moving to $1100..., Ripple is hovering between $2.50 and $3.20 and Bitcoin has moved past $16000 again. The only one of the established coins I am wary of is Litecoin. Ironically it has great utility and I use a lot to ship value around with it, which until Ripple becomes more widely adopted on exchanges, seems to be most efficient, quickest and cheapest way - but for holding and investing it just seems too unpredictable and overall is largely wedded to the value of Bitcoin.

What is interesting is that the exposure of crypto seems higher in much of Asia than in Europe and the US - and demand seems much higher there, seemingly because many of their governments are more overt in warning their populations of the risks  - and because of lack of arbitrage abilities  on any large scale for places like between Korea and the US - the crypto prices are quite far apart - like 20% for some in demand cryptos like Ripple.

 

 

LTC has show better price stability than the other major cryptos. Personally I view it as the safest choice for transferring value--> real value as a currency.